The Asian Powder Keg-II

As India surges to greater heights, the Pakistani flag flies on a smoking rubble heap of failure, "green" with envy. One of the challenges the oracle faces is to remain objective and desist from taking sadistic delight in the great predicament of our mortal enemy ... and sometimes it is a losing battle. While China, which has strung together an alliance of dictators and threatens the subcontinent with an explosion of lethal energy, Pakistan is imploding... in the pervasive nuclear rhetoric in this part of the world, the danger from China is that of fusion while the danger in Pakistan is one of fission. This week, we take a point by point look at the many contradictory forces that threaten to tear apart India's estranged (and by now, hardly recognizable) cousin. Before we start, let us take a moment to absorb a metaphor for terrorism:

"Hindu legends tell of the Rakshasa (demon) called Raktabeej; he had a boon that every time an enemy spilled his blood on the ground, another demon would stand up to assist him. Such is the inevitable paradox of Islamic fundamentalism: unless we attack them they will take over the world and each time we strike a blow, they become stronger"


"Behead those who call Islam a violent religion."- The Fundamentalist Forces

This cartoon alongside, along with eleven others, published in the innocuous Jyllands-Posten began a sequence of events in September 2005 that led to the death of more than one hundred people. When we are dealing with such frightening levels of intolerance, it behooves us to be proceed with extreme caution. Pakistan is NOT a victim of terrorism: in the Islamic World, fundamentalist forces do not manifest themselves as terrorism in the traditional sense; they are a part of a bloody power struggle along the lines of a civil war. There is no reason to assume that Musharraf does not make as many false promises to the fundamentalists as he makes to the Americans. A case in point is the recent admission of the Pakistani government that they had, in fact, inked a deal with "tribal chieftains" on the Pak-Afghan border. Last heard, neither side was keeping its end of the deal. It is important, however, to note that the mullahs and the military see each other as adversaries.

The Pakistani military

The Pakistani military retains its ability to act as a first-rate strike force. Although Musharraf retains his stranglehold on the military, it is easy to see why he was so reluctant to give way, howsoever little, on this issue and shed his uniform . As mentioned before, the Pakistani military is the main combatant in the civil war against the fundamentalist elements.

The good news about the Pakistan army is that the United States owns them, body and soul. This means that, despite all the sabre-rattling and angry shaking of fists, there is no real prospect of them having a go at India, except in a worldwide doomsday scenario.

The bad news is that Pakistan has acquired nuclear weapons; which means that both India and the United States need to keep tabs on the progress of events in Pakistan.

There is very little that India can accomplish, diplomatically. Despite all the confidence building measures (CBM's), both sides in the civil war have an all-consuming hatred of India and therefore any Indian initiative, no matter how well intended is bound to be misconstrued to our detriment. Our only realistic chance is to exercise influence through Washington. Given that the interests of both India and the US in this part of the world differ only in minute details and not in broad outline, this is a very achievable goal. A peaceful Pakistan is so highly improbable that India must settle for the next best thing: A Pakistan so absorbed in internal conflict that it is not in a position to disrupt the workings of the civilized world, either in overt or in covert ways. Though unpalatable to us, we must stomach the fact that without American aid to the Pakistani army, the balance might tilt in favour of the Taliban. In its own weird way, Pakistan's nuclear capability works to our advantage, since their army sees the nukes as a permanent guarantee against Indian invasion, they can focus on their unending internal strife.

The Kashmir issue

Of late, the Kashmir issue has receded too far into the background, as the battle of wills between India and Pakistan has become just another front in the standoff between the Islamic and the Democratic world... it is interesting to see how the spirit of the times moves along... who would have guessed a decade ago, that in an article on India - Pakistan relations; Kashmir would have become an afterthought!

The dream of retrieving Kashmir in its entirety and splendour might strike a cord. But we need to ponder: do we really stand to gain by pushing the Kashmir issue any further? How much are we willing to risk for a barren piece of land swarming with terrorists? Will it really help to recreate an Israel-Palestine style conflict zone a few hundred miles from our capital? Is it not simply better to move on and scale new heights of international prestige rather than spill blood on the Himalayas?

In summary, the Oracle maintains that, in the 21st Century, Pakistan should be viewed as a distracting detail and not the object of our foreign policy.

The Asian Powder Keg- I

Comrade Karat is a proud man. He had promised his colleagues in Beijing a great show from the Prime Minister. And Manmohan Singh, accustomed to being a mere instrument of the political will of others, showed an eagerness to sign above the dotted line that brings to mind the capitulation of President Benes of Czechoslovakia before the Nazis in 1938. Nevertheless, the Oracle opines that brief departures from reason cannot alter the course of history. Accordingly, we begin a series of posts analyzing the most sensitive neighbourhood in the political world which we call the Asian Powder Keg. Let us start by measuring up the three forces that make up this combination.

India: The largest democracy in the world.

China: The most powerful dictatorship in history.

Pakistan: The axis of international terrorism.

We start this week by looking at China. Throughout the course of history many more nations of people have lived with an oppressive regime than without. Each of these dictatorships have, in their, own way, sought to enforce their way of life on all of mankind. But, never before have the despots had at their disposal a people so numerous and resourceful as the Chinese Communists now command. Understandably, the pressure on civilization, is therefore, unprecedented. We will therefore divide our article into three parts, each part headed by one of the infamous slogans of `Ingsoc' in George Orwell's sordidly telling vision of the absolutist state.


War is Peace

(Left: Chinese soldiers prepare for the SCO military
exercise outside the Russian town of
Cherbakul, Aug 11, 2007
Source: Xinhua)
(http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2007-08/12/content_6022763.htm)





China is acutely aware of India's principal weakness, that being the fact that New Delhi is at arm's length from the Chinese frontier. The weaponry as well as the mentality of the PLA is suited to land based aggression. In order for this invasion to be more effective, China needs to open up a broad front that would enable it to attack the wide Indian plains. This would, however require China to get Nepal out of the way. The well funded Maoist insurgency is now at the throat of that country and this is an objective that has been achieved. Another focal point for them is the occupation of Sikkim, which would allow them to severe the North Eastern part of India from the rest. The Chinese had always hoped that, under the pretext of claiming Sikkim, they could spark a war with India, in which they could swiftly cut the country into two and snap up the entire North-East, leaving the Indian army bifurcated and demoralized. They took a rare step back on this when Vajpayee pushed them into the quid pro pro over Tibet and Sikkim. The Chinese have since been sulking about it and have stoutly refused to repeat their words on giving up claim in Sikkim, even as a helpless Manmohan Singh government made another public admission of the new Indian stance on Tibet during President Hu's visit, much to the glee of his Communist backers.

China's principal concern is that, in case of major conflict, the United States would be forced to intervene as the NATO coalition would simply be unable to live in a World dominated by China. And coalition forces, operating from hostile ports in Japan and Taiwan, along with India's own blue water navy could dominate the Chinese coastline rather easily. In order to outflank India, the Chinese came up with their infamous "string of pearls" strategy; whereby they sought out partnerships with the smaller South-East Asian nations that might come in handy in keeping the Indian navy tied down in the Indian Ocean. Naturally, the Chinese despots found many like minded spirits among the dictators who rule the other Asian nations and quickly forged a string of key alliances.

(The SCO military meet: Reuters: Aug 18, 2007 )
(Source:http://www.canada.com/montrealgazette/news/story.html?id=82c2b408-054b-4fa6-b553-60ce183e3a2a)

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization(SCO) is the face of China's new foreign policy. Building on President Putin's pathological dislike of the West, the Chinese are trying to project a "NATO of their own". To leave no doubts as to what is the axis of the new alliance, the name of Shanghai is included in that of the organization. Fortunately, there is little to this alliance beyond hogwash. Swelling the ranks of its allies by a handful of motley nations from Central Asia will yield little or no payoff and it is unlikely the Russians can be prevailed upon to work actively against India under Chinese pressure, especially given Putin's hard headed and egoistic approach to international affairs. From history as well as common sense, the Chinese know that World War III is the way they absolutely do NOT want to go. But what then of the Chinese dream of world domination? This will come down to subtle manoeuvres and diplomatic artifices . China will use Iran to bleed the US and use Pakistan to bleed India. That's a good start in the dirty dogfight that will follow.


Freedom is Slavery

The following is a quote from the Chinese constitution adopted in 1982. (Chapter II, Article 35)

"Article 35. Citizens of the People's Republic of China enjoy freedom of speech, of the press, of assembly, of association, of procession and of demonstration"




(Chinese tanks at Tienanmen Square on June 4, 1989)

If you choose to think carefully, you will realize that the quote above goes beyond dark humour. In fact it has a deep and terrible meaning. This, in the most profound Orwellian sense of the term, is doublethink.

The world is awestruck by the story of China's economic growth. Amid all this, the stories of the incredible cruelty that is dealt out to the Chinese subjects fill us with wonder and amazement. Roughly 20 million Chinese have been "deprived of existence", in the exercise of the dreaded Hsiao-Mieh. To quote TIME (March 5, 1956)

"These are figures that stagger the imagination. In no previous war, revolution or human holocaust, either in the days of Tamerlane or in the time of Hitler, have so many people been destroyed in so short a period. Because it is hard for the mind to visualize so vast a slaughter in human terms, the Communists have been able to reap an advantage from the very size of their funeral pyre: many Westerners, finding the monstrous incredible, cannot see the blood on the hand of pretended friendship proffered by Chinese Communist Leader Mao Tse-tung."

The Chinese deserve to be free; and so do all other kinds of people. To our minds, used to the ways of democracy and the exercise of free speech, it may seem strange that the Chinese do not rebel against their oppressive state. This however, is the key to the dynamics of the human mind. The masses do not revolt simply because they are oppressed. The masses only revolt when they are incited.

The greatest challenge of our time (as of every other time before) is to cope with evil while distinguishing ourselves from it. That said, flaunting our civil liberties will not have any impact on the Chinese people, insulated as they are, to influences of the international media. Rather, we will need to understand the seemingly irresistible group dynamic that propels them to strength after strength, in other words, we have to understand the underlying freedom in being a slave; the freedom to let go of the weight of our own conscience and feed on the pervasive propaganda of the Almighty State. Without that, no progress can be made in the war against despotism.


Ignorance is Strength?

The Chinese are a proud people. And they should be. Their contributions to human thought and advancement in the ancient world are, indeed remarkable. However, we need to be wary of the new China, one that was born out of the Cultural Revolution, a process whereby the past was wiped out from memory and from record. The spirit of the Chinese people has, however, endured, through the ages and today their creativity and versatility is being utilized towards plunging the world into darkness. It is all too easy to see the evil juggernaut of Communism transcending China and taking over the world. But, then, there is one thing that pegs China back!

It is Truth. An absolute state such as China can only be sustained on the idea of infallibility of its rulers. In a struggle for the soul of the world, this would mean that their government would have to paper over every single failure, hide every weakness from the people as well as from themselves. To admit to a lapse of judgement would effectively destroy the foundations of the absolute state. And each time they are hit hard, they cannot look back and make amends. In the long run, this will cripple them.

Squeezed for Space

Amid the euphoria of multiple victories in 2007, the BJP is grappling with the grim realization that the mythical road to New Delhi runs through Lucknow. Despite triumphs in Punjab, Uttarakhand, Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh (as well as a near certain upcoming victory in Karnataka), the drubbing in Uttar Pradesh and the mixed signals from Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh have left an enduring, bitter aftertaste in the party's mouth. To be fair, they are doing their best to get their act together. After the party unit in Madhya Pradesh was caught napping during the Khargonne and Sanwer bypolls, the BJP is leaving no stone unturned to retain their hold on Betul early this year. The year 2007 began with a major embarrassment when the BJP was upstaged in Raman Singh's own backyard, but they came back rather strongly to snatch Malkhairoda and Khairargarh assembly segments later on. Also, efforts are underway to bring back maverick leader Babulal Marandi, who is arguably, the most popular man in Jharkhand. But, the question remains; what about UP?

There is a compelling analogy between Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu; two unabashedly corrupt regional satraps; one a proud princess who believes in concentrating all power in her own hands and the other a patriarch for who built his party as a personal fortune, to be passed down in his family. Is there any daylight between them?

There is, however, a subtext to this analogy; the person who delivered Uttar Pradesh to the BSP is not Mayawati herself, but her pointman Satish Mishra. Overnight, the BSP's slogan changed from the overly offensive "Tilak, Taraazu aur Talwaar inko maaro joote chaar" to "Brahmin shankh bajaayega, haathi badhtaa jaayega". What was shocking about Mayawati's victory is that not once did she choose to pay lip service to the issues of development and corruption. At rally after rally, she promised nothing and demanded support. What was surprising was her organized approach to the election; she opted not to participate in the civic body polls; during the course of the campaign, she refused to fall for the temptation of parodying Mulayam Singh's ridiculous "UP mein hai dum, kyunki jurm yahaan hai kum", unlike the BJP. Instead, she stuck steadfastly to her message of a grand caste alliance. On the other hand, Mulayam Singh, sensing defeat, chose to guard his votebank rather than play for victory. The BJP and the Congress played around with issues, from Hindutva to Dynasty and never once caught the pulse of the people. What emerged from this caste cauldron is an assembly that can be best described as this

(Source: indiadaily.com)

There will never be a more opportune moment to seize the initiative. Mayawati's honeymoon with the voters is coming to an end, as evidenced by her humiliating defeat in the bypolls in Ballia. The alliance between Brahmins and Dalits was unnatural to say the least. Since Mayawati does not tolerate any credible leadership in the BSP except her own, it is safe to assume that Satish Mishra will be shelved (by the way, where is he, already?) and Brahmins are going to complain about not having their "due". In the meantime, the BJP needs to project a Brahmin face; all this before the familiar anti-incumbency vote drops safely into Mulayam's lap. Vajpayee has faded away and it is clearly impossible to find a Brahmin leader of his stature. Rajnath Singh, the tough thakur, will not suffice, particulary, in a state where "Beti aur vote" are given within the caste. Add to this the adage that the Brahmin always votes with the "rising sun".

The BJP does have some straws to cling on to. It won handsomely in the civic polls and picked up an assembly segment within a week of Mayawati assuming power. This means the organization is not dead; the leadership has failed them. The demographic of Uttar Pradesh has also changed, with Muslims forming as much as 35% of the electorate in several parts of the state. It remains to be seen if Mulayam Singh's strident pro-extremist rhetoric will alienate the upper castes sufficiently to prevent him from getting the full anti-incumbency vote. If not, the next Lok Sabha elections will leave our nation at the mercy of scumbags like Maya, Mulayam, Jayalalitha and Chautala. Fortunately for us, India Inc. has learnt to grow while our government sleeps.

Paving the way to power?

The event was remarkable simply because it was such a low-key affair. At a nondescript press conference, the party's candidate for Prime Minister was announced... the BJP ahead... the NDA allies sheepishly behind.

First of all, the BJP owes it to him. If there is a reward for unflinching loyalty and exemplary service, he must have it. Time and again, he has stepped out of the closeted environs of New Delhi into the rough and tumble of the dirt road. And he is the one who got them to New Delhi in the first place. In doing so, he built a formidable party organization that dislodged the Gandhi dynasty from the seat of power and gave it back to the people. At the same time, his opinions and utterances had in them considerable divisive power; Advani embodies both a relentless political will and a surpassing political acumen. Advani, in stark contrast to (and as a perfect foil for) Vajpayee, never chose to obfuscate, always delivering his message in no uncertain terms: from Janmabhoomi to Jinnah.

And yet, Advani is a "bad" choice. That is because Advani's nomination has nothing to add to the BJP's support. In Gujarat, Narendrabhai was the face of the BJP that drove millions of otherwise peaceful right-minded people to look beyond the terrible events of 2002 and vote for development, for progress and freedom from corruption. In Rajasthan, the Rani's grassroots appeal brought the BJP a majority of its own for the very first time. And in Madhya Pradesh, the rustic, rabble rousing Uma Bharati became the darling of the masses. Atal ji's reassuring presence was a source of constant solace for the BJP during its most troubled years in power. Advani has none of that. The appeal of the dynasty is far greater.

The media did not know what to make of this incident. Preoccupied as they were with the ongoing elections in Gujarat (though a significant section of them seemed to be living in 2002 rather than 2007 throughout the process), they hastened to argue that the nomination was a tactic meant to cut Modi down to size. Nothing could be farther from the truth. Advani understood that his consecration might make the NDA allies grumble and so he calculated the move so as to precede two emphatic victories for the BJP in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh. The gambit has worked for him. In doing so, Advani, the master strategist has, yet again, placed himself one step ahead of the media and the general public. It is this unique ability that gives me hope.

And yet, my pick for Prime Minister remains the endearing Sushma Swaraj!