Pakistan in flames: India wary of smoke - II

Continuing from Part-1, we now come to the political and diplomatic options that India has given the current scenario in Pakistan.

First, we have what one might call the "Forward approach". This is all about making big things happen rather than reacting to them. If China can courageously pursue a "One China" policy, there is no reason India cannot pursue an "Akhand Bharat" policy. Given that India has never made territorial demands on Pakistan despite being well positioned to do so several times in the past, an idea like this might generate shock within the Indian diplomatic community. However, anything vaguely bordering on the threshold of "conquest" is seen in extremely negative terms by the world at large. Unfortunately, most of the Western powers will not understand the sentiments of the Indian people about the oneness of their ancient homeland striken by a shameful partition. Nor does India have the clout to make this case forcefully. "Akhand Bharat" is not about conquest or occupation; it is about stretching India to the banks of the Indus, the Hind to the Hindukush and returning the Sindhi people to the Sindh. We get that. They don't.

But there is no reason India cannot work towards this dream in smaller ways. As Pakistan begins to disintegrate over the next few years, there is no reason India cannot start claiming its old domains. The unification of Kashmir would be the first place to start. Given that India has always talked of "Pakistan occupied Kashmir" and this region is still included in the official map of India, this does not even represent a departure from India's diplomatic stance.

The problem is how one can get Indian troops into Kashmir without starting a war or even appearing imperialist. This is where joint action with the United States becomes imperative. To achieve a goal in this "Forward policy", India has to take the initiative and join in with US forces in Afghanistan. Such a suggestion, would, of course, send Indian liberals into a tizzy, but the national interest is above the screeching of anti-national elements. The more uncomfortable issue is with getting the US to accept and appreciate the value of Indian military deployment in Afghanistan, particularly with its new President Obama who thinks he is some kind of charmer who can make the beasts of hell dance to his tune . Indian presence in Afghanistan will provide the US with some true tactical advantages and not just in the sheer military sense. It goes without saying that Indian military deployment will come in the form of real numbers and not token support like the kind the US has come to expect from its European "allies". Second, India has excellent relations with Afghanistan and presence of Indian troops will bolster the argument that the US is not an occupying force. Thirdly, one of America's major challenges is connecting with the people of Afghanistan, without whose help no lasting solution can be achieved. Connecting with this mostly rural, mostly medieval nation will be a lot easier if the Americans are seen in company with other people of colour. Unfortunately, the people of Afghanistan have not achieved the sophistication to think beyond race and America has to act accordingly.

The only downside for the United States is that Indian presence shuts out the possibility of Pakistani cooperation. As American officers on the ground realize how dishonest the Pakistani pretence of "support" really is and how weak and worthless Pakistan is anyway, this situation will mitigate itself. Besides, the new diplomatic establishment in the United States has a few hard lessons to learn from dictators before it begins to see the light. India will have to wait until that moment.

The advantages for India are manifold and the encirclement of Pakistan is pretty much the least of these. Deployment of Indian troops beyond Indian soil will raise the stature of India as an international power. It will also set the stage for larger joint Indo-US operations that may be required in other theatres. The prospect of Indo-US operations is enough to send the Chinese into a huddle. The Chinese will get the idea quickly and stop throwing their weight behind Pakistan. A drop in Chinese morale benefits both India and the US.

On the less pragmatic side, unification of Kashmir should be the first step in the long journey to redress the injustice of partition. The liberation of Balochistan is important, both because the Baloch people deserve to be free and because Balochistan has never really been part of India and we have no claim to the land.

A forward policy comes with its perils. Expansion of Indian troops into Afghanistan might cause a paroxysm in Pakistan and might well lead to a military takeover of the sick country. In this scenario, Pakistan's nuclear arsenal becomes extremely important. This is where the Oracle must leave the question open and hope the US has a "Plan B" hidden somewhere... an audacious operation to deprive Pakistan of its nukes at lightning speed. It is not foolish to assume the US has the ability or that it is at least working on such a plan.

Two more caveats: First, can India even afford a major military deployment in Afghanistan and protect the homeland should things go cataclysmic? The answer to the first part is most certainly "yes", but the second part is more tricky. Does India have the might to protect the Western frontier AND the Northern frontier after sizeable numbers have been moved to Afghanistan? Can the Indian Navy handle Chinese vessels operating out of Burma, Sri Lanka and perhaps even Bangladesh should the worst happen? On the naval side, things do not seem so dismal. On the Northern frontier, things do not look so good. But the chances of an Indo-China war starting over heightened bitterness between India and Pakistan are so dim that it is well worth the risk.

The second caveat is that any forward action by India will cause considerable discomfort among smaller South Asian states like Bangladesh and Sri Lanka who might gravitate further towards China. Again I daresay that joint Indo-US operations raise a prospect so terrible for China that the Chinese will not have much use for these little countries anyway.

In conclusion, the Oracle opines that a five year careful watch might well be worth the wait. America isn't going anywhere from Afghanistan, Pakistan is never going to get better and the new guy in the White House will touch the ground in about that much time (Yes.. I am sure Obama is going to get a second term) What is important is that India wait to reap the benefits of the deadly harvest that is finally coming ripe in our military labs. It has taken us sixty years, but finally the Agni, the Shaurya and the Nag are beginning to stretch their limbs. The Tejas is close to spreading its wings and the ATVs, the Shivaliks, the Vikrants await their moment to be pressed into service on the high seas. An air of maturity is beginning to blow across the Indian science, technology and military setup. That is how democracy works. We are over the hump and it is time to collect our treasures. The important thing is that we weren't forced uphill, 20 million people did not have to be "deprived of existence" so that the nation might "live"; we made it up here by the power of freedom. We should wait eagerly for the rich reward.

Pakistan in flames; India wary of the smoke-I

The picture says a thousand words. A lone Pakistani soldier stands with his assault rifle; guarding the flaming ruins. He looks alert and holds his rifle straight. His lifeless nation stretched out behind him, the lone soldier looks like the loyal dog guarding his dead master.

In the last sixty years, a fertile land that was once an organ of the Hind, has been prised out of the body of the mother country and its veins poisoned by a hate filled religion. As Pakistan is slain by its own children, the question is: should we care?

The temptation to let Pakistan stew in its own juices is quite strong. The nation that boasted of strategy to bleed India "with a thousand cuts" has slit its own throat. Revenge rarely gets sweeter than this. It was "they" who wanted to cooperate with the British. Then, it was "they" who wanted a separate electorate. Then, it was "they" who wanted a separate state. Then, "they" went for "Direct Action". It was "they" who named it "Pakistan", i.e. "land of the pure". It was "they" who were not content with their portion and wanted to have more of ours. It was "they" who decided to change their secular constitution in 1973 to adopt hatred as the state religion. As we say:

Karma: It's only a bitch if you are a jerk.

However, even as Pakistan hangs lifeless at the end of a noose, we have to care. Should one care about an enemy? Perhaps not. But then, one must make an exemption for the dead.

Before we get into the details of how India should engage in the South Asian diplomatic tangle, we need to address this moral dilemma over the situation in Pakistan. Is it fitting on our part to celebrate? Lives are being lost in Pakistan; innocent men and women and children are being mowed down by the dozen. Should India act merely out of apprehensions over the fallout of the situation, or out of a human interest in the tragedies that are being wrought on Pakistan by its own?

So, let us put it out there in the open. Pakistan's demise is a moral victory for India. It validates our nation, our constitution and our government. There is no shame in acknowledging the fact that our democratic institutions have brought us to the verge of becoming a world power and Pakistan's spectacular failure underscores the enormity of what our nation has achieved. Indians have no reason to be coy about India's achievements. In fact, it is precisely this reticence to acknowledge our own greatness that India gets a bad rap from so many quarters. It is all so often that India is accused of having scant respect for human rights, upwardly mobile enterprising Indians are cast as unsympathetic to the "plight of their brethren", those who express any measure of optimism in the rising economic, military and diplomatic clout of India are sneered at as ignorant and ill-informed. India's image is held back by stereotypes; stereotypes once created by the British and embraced by the West. And Indians have done little towards dispensing with these stereotypes; instead naysayers are held in high esteem as elites and intellectuals. In this respect, a big thank you must go out to the Tibetian community in exile in India, who recently decided to dedicate a whole year towards celebrating what India has done for them; finally there is someone who wants to gratefully acknowledge what is one of the freest nations in the world.

It is striking that while Muslims who left India behind at the time of partition to seek the glory of their faith in the "land of the pure" are still derided as beggars in Pakistan, the Sindhis, Sikhs and Hindus from Lahore, Bengalis from East Pakistan have all been embraced as one blood in India. Therefore, in this hour of Pakistan's failure, no Indian who wishes to dance in the streets should be made to feel ashamed.

The Oracle's point is not to say that Indians should drown themselves in jingoism and euphoria over the death of our mortal enemy. It is only to suggest that no Indian who wishes to celebrate should be made to give in to the bullying of liberal intellectuals who may well be in denial over the achievements of India and/or unable to fit in India's success into their world-view and who are not above using scare tactics to keep Indians from celebrating this victory. Let's say it: India's powerful democratic institutions, huge military and thriving economy are strong guarantees against the advance of Islamic fascism.

(to be contd. in Part-II)

Tired losers form "Third Front"

For those of us who remember, there was once an alliance called the NFLF: "National Front-Left Front". That evolved into the United Front and the latter evolved into the People's Front which evolved into the United National Progressive Alliance. This time, they did not want to bother with having to decide on a name; so they are just calling it the Third Front!

So, what is common to all these "Fronts"? The Left, for one, has been part of all of them (barring a technicality, i.e., the Left formally stayed out of the United Front once the UF government accepted Congress support). Are these "Fronts" merely transitional forms on the path to the extinction of the Left as a political force in India? Political evolution has already condemned the Left to the dustbins of history and that is exactly where they are headed.

Wait! One might be tempted to point out that the "Third Front" may well hold the key to forming the government in New Delhi, deciding the Prime Minister and even the successor to President Pratibha Patil (Heavens no! she still has three more years to embarrass our country!). But what would that achieve? The Left has already relegated itself to the reduced stature of being a regional party by joining the Third Front. The Left has already compromised its reputation of being stoutly opposed to corruption and caste by allying with the worst scum in Indian politics... from Laloo, Mulayam and Paswan to Jayalalitha and Mayawati. The Left's boast of being a disciplined, monolithic, cadre based organization has suffered irrevocable harm due to the events in Kerala. For the party of the Communists, it is a moment of truth, a time to face up before the people for their anti-national pronouncements over the last sixty years. And they are smiling foolishly as they walk the road to oblivion with hell in a handbasket.

So, what is the future of the "Third Front". If Parliament is hamstrung in a horrible manner, the "Front" will press for a repeat of 1996 and there is a slight possibility that they might achieve it. The Congress, for its part, has learned from its mistakes and is very unlikely to offer the Prime Ministerial position to someone else. The BJP and NDA have already gone to town for far too long with the candidature of Lal Krishna Advani and they are not likely to back down now. Also, other NDA leaders such as Sharad Yadav, who may be more "acceptable" than Advani are all weighed down by powerful regional leaders and are therefore unlikely to get the go ahead towards becoming Prime Minister from their own parties. We should mention here that the "Maratha PM" dream will require a coalition all too queer to come into being. Even so, the possibility of a Third Front PM should not be discarded entirely. If only as a thought experiment, let us consider the Third Front PM candidates.

There's Mayawati, of course. She has been rearing to become Prime Minister. Unfortunate though it is for our country, Maya is the only one who has something of a chance. Since her party puts Maya's Prime Ministerial ambitions as the prime point on its agenda, and indeed, the only point, bargaining with Mayawati is both easy and difficult. If one of the two sides can leave its ego aside and accept Mayawati as PM, there will be nothing else she will require of them. Mayawati's big advantage is that most of the Third Front losers will support her in a heartbeat and so will the Congress' alliance partners. In fact, the only one who would suffer heartburn would be Ram Vilas Paswan, who cannot muster the numerical might to throw a spanner into the works. Moreover, Mayawati has a way of getting things done, of producing major thrusts and her single minded ambition to become PM might stand her in good stead.

Then, there is Mayawati's arch rival: Mulayam Singh Yadav. Such is the pathetic state of ideological confusion within the Third Front and indeed the boudaries of the UPA that any or both of these rival leaders may turn out to be part of the ruling coalition post election. Mulayam Singh knows, however, that his moment has passed. If there was one, it was when he had peaked to a solid tally of 37 MPs from Uttar Pradesh in 2004; and as a thumb rule, anyone who suffers a loss of seats in the ensuing election will be out of running for the Prime Ministership.

Jayalalitha is an intriguing figure in this election. Just how many seats she will pick up is anyone's guess. The question of whether Jayalalitha is seriously considering a Prime Ministerial bid is even more significant. The Dravidian parties have traditionally had a tendency to stay slightly aloof from the government in New Delhi, but there is a possibility that a "Tamil PM" might prove to be a unifying issue. As such, a more "colourless" Tamil leader, such as one from the MDMK or the PMK might emerge as a winner. Sivaganga MP and Home Minister P. Chidambaram, who was a runaway best performer in the UPA government should have been a good choice under these circumstances (and a great choice for the country as well) , but the Congress is in no mood to advance anyone other than Dr. Singh (except Rahul, of course).

One man who should never be counted out is Chandrababu Naidu. For one, Chandrababu would make a fairly good Prime Minister. Although many will disagree with his vision and his approach to development is often facile, Naidu does not lack good intentions. That, in itself, places him way ahead of leaders of many other regional parties. Naidu's one major impact on the national scene, i.e. the elevation of Dr. Kalam to the highest office, is remembered with pride and gratitude by most Indians. Of late, however, Naidu has been wallowing far too low in the filth, allying with the Left, with K Chandrasekhar Rao and sundry others. The Oracle would like to believe he is the same Chandrababu of old. But, perhaps, that is not to be.

BJP's balance sheet of allies

Those of us with even moderate political foresight have known for some time that the Congress has been living in a fool's paradise. Now that the parties that used to be in the somewhat optimistically named "United" Progressive Alliance have all decided to go their merry way, suddenly the BJP's balance sheet does not look so bad.

The NDA's core has, of course, come down to just 3 parties other than the BJP: the Shiv Sena, the SAD and the JD(U). The BJD used to be a core member until it decided to overreach itself. Fortunately for the BJP, the BJD does not have much of a choice once the elections are over. The prodigal son of the NDA will have little recourse than to troop back to base camp soon enough.

It would be more than just a stretch to imagine that these five parties (including the BJD) can muster a majority on their own in the House. The BJP, however, has no reason to despair, since all that the NDA needs to do is finish ahead of the "UPA", whatever form the latter alliance might have at that moment. The key is to clearly demonstrate that the "UPA" has lost the popular mandate, if it ever had one. If that is achieved, it will not be very difficult to get fencesitters, many of them estranged friends to support and/or join the NDA. These "fencesitters" have made things more efficient by putting themselves up for sale on a single unified forum the Left likes to call the "Third Front". Post election, a winning NDA can offer great careers to these unemployed former Chief Ministers.

The NDA has a lot of estranged friends. Some have faded into oblivion. Some are fighting for life. Some others are actually doing well. Some would want back in, but have drifted too far to do a volte face. The AGP, the INLD and the RLD belong to the second category and all three have done the smart thing by joining hands with the BJP. The Congress is sitting on two remarkable performances in both Asom and Haryana that would be hard pressed to repeat. In western Uttar Pradesh, Ajit Singh's RLD might give a much needed boost to the BJP's demoralized and depreciating rank and file.

What about others? First, the funny ones: like the National Conference and the Lok Janshakti Party. A father and son Muslim party like the National Conference should never have allied with the BJP in the first place. They have faced up to their embarrassment and are now busy ruling their ancestral land, with help from the royal family in Delhi. Good for them.

Ah... Paswan of course. Why is it that Paswan gets tricked into joining some alliance or another each time elections take place? He was with the NDA until 2002, then with Laloo in 2004 and then claimed to be Laloo's biggest challenger in 2005! He made a fool of himself every single time. His latest gambit is to ally with the RJD he had sworn to uproot from Bihar. Let's see how long that lasts before Paswan finds an excuse to join the winning alliance.

Things are more interesting for the BJP down south. In Andhra Pradesh, the TDP and the TRS have actually tied up, although few could have predicted this five years ago. The BJP has been putting in a lot of money and energy in the state and any meaningful gains there will help the party to attract, for instance, the TRS into the NDA fold. In fact, now that the TDP and TRS are together, it should be possible to bring the TDP in tow if needed. Chandrababu Naidu has been cozy with the Left for far too long. Out of a sense of denial, Chandrababu wants to believe that the drubbing he received in 2004 was due to his BJP ties. Instead of blaming himself and his outlandish governance schemes that he liked to refer to as his "vision", his blatant inability to stem the tide of Naxalism, Naidu still believes that the BJP weighed him down in the 2004 election. Fortunately, the worst is over for him. The electorate might not have switched sides entirely, but people are beginning to consider him again. His promise of providing social security to the poorest of the poor might also help in reviving his fortunes. If the NDA agrees to make a few cosmetic concessions to the state of Andhra Pradesh, it will not be too difficult to have Naidu back in the BJP camp.

Then there is the AIADMK, which knows that it is carrying the momentum of the election in Tamil Nadu. It is not for nothing that the PMK switched sides in such a dramatic manner of late. State elections in Tamil Nadu are far away and Jayalalitha would want a foothold at the Centre. The Congress has invested a little too much into its alliance with the DMK to be in a position to take AIADMK support. In any case, it is impossible for the Congress to take in Jayalalitha without immediately losing DMK. The NDA has a vacancy it should look to fill right there.

The role and purpose of the NCP in Indian politics has always been somewhat of a question mark. Initially, it was Congress strongman Sharad Pawar's ego that drove the party. However, with passage of time, the NCP has evolved more and more of a state level personality as opposed to the wishes of Pawar Sahib who has always wanted a more pan-Indian presence. The NCP's proximity to the Shiv Sena has been a source of both consternation and consolation for the BJP. The personal equation between Balasaheb and Pawar Sahib has kept both the BJP and Congress on tenterhooks. Even so, it is far too speculative to imagine the NCP joining the NDA camp after elections.... not yet...maybe in a post Pawar era....

Whether the BJP can get Mamata Banerjee back depends on how well the TMC does in Bengal with Congress support. If Mamata is able to deal a body blow to the CPI(M), as she probably will, she will try her best to keep the Congress with her. This can change only if the Congress has to take Left support in order to form a government. Mamata Banerjee has defined her politics by her opposition to Left Front hegemony. And even though nothing, not even joint Congress - Left -TMC support for a Central Government can dent that image, leave it to this highly emotional politician to freak out over the ethics of having a "semi-alliance" with the Left at the Centre.

That leaves Mayawati and Mulayam Singh, the two worst politicians in the country. For the NDA, Mayawati is the more "natural" ally. Maulana Mulayam, the one who ordered the shooting of VHP workers, has few bridges to the BJP. However, the extreme bitterness between the Samajwadi Party and the Congress, the propensity of the Samajwadis to justify just about any alliance as well as their desire to have as many anti-Mayawati forces together as possible, suggests that the NDA can have some sort of "arrangement" with the SP. For its part, the SP wants the Congress to act as a subservient doormat in UP the way the latter typically submits to Laloo (not this time!!) in Bihar. The Congress, on the other hand, cannot get over the fact that the SP treats the Gandhi family as though they are nothing special...just flesh and blood like everyone else. Perhaps Mulayam Singh's dislike of dynasties has roots in the fact that his own political guru Charan Singh passed him up to give preference to his son Ajit long ago. Advani practises politics as the art of the possible. Should the opportunity present itself, he will not make light of it.