Terrorism and the Elections

The failure of the BJP to notch up a victory in Delhi has started a lively political debate in India regarding the electoral marketability of the "issue" of terrorism. Some have argued that, much like that of Madrid train bombings of 2004, the impact of the Mumbai terrorist attack of 26/11 on Indian voters has been transformational. It has been suggested that terrorism has been elevated to a "national issue", which is an euphemistic way of saying that the people of India refuse to see it any longer as a communal issue and refuse to believe any particular political party is any more serious about dealing with it than any other.

This pipe dream of the English language press has been played up no end, with newspaper after newspaper effectively congratulating the voters of Delhi for rejecting the "communal" BJP in favour of the secular Congress. The message was so shrill that a version of this was picked up by the BBC and the Associated Press, but not before the Indian liberals had carefully inserted the words "Hindu Nationalist" before the BJP and had made sure to remind the world that the Congress was "the party of Mahatma Gandhi". One wonders why no newspaper ever reminds African Americans that the Republican Party is "the party of Abraham Lincoln".

Back home, the Oracle opines that this might be a case of reading too much into a small state election. Delhi, after all, is the smallest of the four heartland states that went to elections and the personal popularity of Sheila Dikshit, her focus on state issues and the highly informed electorate of Delhi (which can discern State and Central government powers/concerns very easily) played a huge part in the outcome. The BJP certainly has reasons to worry, after whittling away a healthy pre-election lead; and then losing dismally in the immediate aftermath of a "spectacular" terrorist attack.

But not too many! If you look carefully at the electoral history of India, you will notice that major events have, of themselves, rarely proved to change public opinion overnight. What one needs is time... time for a political party to build a political campaign around the event. In the case of Delhi, this is precisely what the BJP lacked... enough time to make political capital over the Mumbai terrorist attacks. A simple example of this phenomenon would be the following: the burning of the Sabarmati express did not have an immediate effect on electoral outcomes in Gujarat. In fact, the Congress won handsomely in several small, local elections held after the Godhra incident, leading at least one senior Congress leader to say smugly: The Congress has swept all the elections in Gujarat pre-Godhra and post-Godhra. If Narendrabhai had not crisscrossed Gujarat on his Gaurav Yatra, or if VHP cadres had not campaigned in the tribal areas of Gujarat wearing tee-shirts with the message "क्या आप गोधरा को भूल सकते हैं ?", the outcome might well have been different. Kandhmahal would be another case in point, where the BJP made very little impact in local body elections despite the highly publicized communally charged situation on the ground. Again, the BJP hardly campaigned in Kandhmahal on the issue of Hindutva.

The lesson for the BJP is that it cannot hope to benefit from any communally charged situation unless it actually campaigns on the issue. As far as Delhi is concerned, the BJP never had the time to work the issue into the campaign. A last minute advertisement in the newspapers does not count as a campaign and it gives ammunition to BJP bashers in the media. Compare this to the situation in Jammu, where the BJP's performance was stellar. There the BJP had time to convert the groundswell of public anger into votes, by means of an effective campaign. At one point, the BJP was leading in 17 seats, a score that shrank to 11 (which is still a gain of 10 seats!!), probably due to widespread public realization that, of the 4 parties: Congress, PDP, NC and BJP, the BJP alone has no chance at power at all. Nevertheless, Ghulam Nabi Azad's statement that the BJP's gains are "worrisome" is extremely reprehensible. The connotation that the BJP is somehow anti-national is reprehensible and rather ironic, particuarly because the Congress party declared that it was open to tie up with a party that was both "secular" and "nationalist". The PDP does not make the grade as either "secular" or "nationalist" and the Congress should know that. Apart from that, the Congress should be reminded of its seat sharing arrangement with the Muslim League (IUML) in Kerala. Of course, Ghulam Nabi toned down his remark later on to say that "BJP has won but Jammu has lost, because the BJP will never make it to power". Yet, the act of an elected leader thus belittling the verdict of the people as well as the accompanying admission that the new Government of J&K intends to punish the Jammu region is despicable.

The issue of terrorism remains at the heart of the Indian election. The media should stop insulting the intelligence of the people by suggesting that the masses are being somehow anti-national by linking Islam to terrorism. For what it's worth, people will never stop linking Islam to terrorism, nor Walt Disney to Mickey Mouse. However, the BJP must admit that the "old Hindutva" package has outlasted its utility. No longer do the people of India respond emotionally to the building of a temple in Ayodhya, Bhojshala or in Chikmanglur. People want peace and progress and terrorism threatens both of these aims. It is not very wise to think that people will not respond positively to a message that aims to deal with terrorism with a heavy hand.

However, in order to make the issue of terrorism more effective, the BJP needs a better public relations campaign. The party knows that it is not a favourite of the English language media and has not taken sincere steps to remedy the situation. The party's campaign managers have also been ineffective in sending out certain messages to the people. For instance, the BJP often comes under fire for having let out Masood Azhar during the Kandahar crisis. The Congress has been given a free hand by the media to twist the story so far out of shape that now it usually reads like as though the BJP Government eagerly surrendered to the terrorists, not with 189 Indian lives hanging in the balance. To my knowledge, the BJP has never mounted an offensive campaign to compare and contrast this with the shameful surrender of Indian national interests to the personal interests of Rubaiyya Sayeed in 1989. Instead, Advani has cowered, sinking to the extent of suggesting that he was not even part of the decision to release Masood Azhar. The BJP must learn to fight the media battle, or else, as the Delhi verdict showed, one does not always have enough time to hit the streets and campaign. The Congress instead, had the luxury of their campaign message being beamed directly into the living rooms of the city, without having to put a foot on the ground.

So, what have we learned? We summarize as follows:

a. The "old Hindutva" is dead: Construction of temples, etc. is no longer a major issue. Public discourse has moved beyond that.

b. "Hindutva" needs to be repackaged as anger against Islamic terrorism in order to make an impact. This is because terrorism threatens the promise of a rising India.

c. There is no automatic route from "communal incidents" to electoral victory: A lot of energy has to go into the campaign, before an issue can be translated into votes.

d. For "Hindutva" to be effective, the atmosphere must be conducive and the campaign effective: Kalyan Singh tried to evoke Hindutva out of nowhere in Uttar Pradesh in 2007 and it resulted in nothing but disappointment. Hindutva must be accompanied with a strong commitment to development, with Hindutva justified by the necessity to do "all it takes" to remove obstacles to progress. It's the idea of "Hindutva+". In Gujarat, they call it "Moditva".

e. The BJP needs to have better relations with the English language media. A crop of argumentative, English speaking leaders who can dictate the airwaves would be a pleasant change. There is nothing like the luxury of having the media campaign for you, for free.

Assembly Polls-II: Congress couldn't care less about losing 2 states

That the Congress read the results of the latest round of Assembly polls as a victory for itself shows how little the grand old party expects of itself. The Congress retained Delhi, while in Rajasthan, Gehlot's forces, soundly thrashed 123-51 five years ago, barely limped to within a small distance of the finish line. The BJP, on the other hand, registered convincing victories in two other states.

Although the Congress is probably sleeping more soundly than the BJP, alarm bells are sounding for the former across the country. The Congress has been shrinking in the South and the East and the West. One of the strengths of the Congress thus far was its ability to routinely unseat the BJP wherever it was incumbent (except for Gujarat, of course). With this election, all that has changed. The BJP is becoming the "natural party of governance" in Central and North Western India, building a solid bulwark from Orissa to Gujarat. The Congress is facing wholesale disaster in Maharashtra and has managed a half hearted mandate in Rajasthan. The BJP is also set to take advantage of the political mess in Jharkhand and Nitish Kumar seems to be holding in Bihar. As part of the long term picture, the Congress party is getting boxed into a strip of land around Delhi (Delhi-Punjab-Haryana), much like the Mughals in their last years.

The convincing nature of the BJP's victory in Madhya Pradesh has taken everyone by surprise and brought much fanfare to the humble Shivraj Singh Chouhan, one of the less fancied politicians in the country. The Chief Minister deserves much praise for singlehandedly bringing the party out of doldrums in the state. Less than a year ago, when the BJP suffered humiliating defeats in Khargonne and Sanwer Lok Sabha constituences, most pundits had written the BJP off. The Congress sensed the surge and called on its cadres to do an encore at a massive workers rally in Chhindwara. Then something changed: the people's Chief Minister decided to get involved. He stemmed the rot by camping for a month in Betul for the Assembly bypoll and gave the BJP some breathing space ahead of the election. Then, two months before the election, Chouhan began his "Aashirwaad Yatra". Although the Chief Minister's soujourn was captured by few television cameras, reports of rural mobilisation in response to Chouhan's reassuring message of continued, diligent development continued to surface throughout. Chouhan's tour transformed the electoral landscape completely; forcing comparisons of the former's developmental image with Digvijay's dysfunctional regime. Once the mood in MP had become more conducive to the BJP, changing party candidates projected the cathartic approach of the party and negated local anti-incumbency.

Chhattisgarh followed much the same script; a "humble" Chief Minister with halting English who was fluent in the language of the masses, the message of continued development, new faces in the list of candidates and a sweet victory for the BJP. The election also showed the BJP's lock on the tribal vote and a much mellowed Ajit Jogi freely conceded that the Congress inability to appeal to the tribals had cost them the election. The BJP swept Bastar and almost all of South Chhattisgarh, affirming that tribals across the country, once a Congress core constituency, had switched over to the BJP nationwide. The stability of the tribal votebank makes them a precious asset to the BJP, be they the tribals of Gondwana, Jhabua, Dang, Amravati, Surguja, Ganjam, Mewar or the Scheduled Tribes down south in Karnataka.

The BJP's victory in Chhattisgarh is also a firm, democratic affirmation for the pro-national Salwa Judum. Although it is a pity that Congress leader Mahendra Karma who mooted the idea of the Salwa Judum ended up losing his seat, the nationalist stance of the voters has silenced many critics. The verdict is a fitting retort to the storm of misinformation created by zealous Indian liberals who have made a career in the West out of misrepresenting the unusually tolerant Hindus as the most bigoted people in the world. Documentary after documentary showed smug "human rights" workers hurling invective and prevarication at hysterical, sloganeering Salwa Judum rallies, but conveniently forgot to translate the slogan of "Bharat Mata ki jai" that was actually being raised at those events for the benefit of Western audiences. Of course, no one suspects that the people's verdict will cause Arundhati Roy and her ken to drop their anti-national stance, but one can hope she will be taken a little less seriously.

On the whole, the BJP seems to have done reasonably well in protecting two incumbent governments and seems to have discovered a workable formula for retaining power. Since most the lethargy, bureaucracy and corruption exists at the local level, MLAs tend to accumulate a fair bit of incumbency baggage. If the party can provide a leader at the helm who can be seen as a serious proponent of development, incumbency need not necessarily disable a party in the election. The other achievement for the BJP is the creation of solid regional leaders with a following all their own. The party has perfected the art of transforming lightweights into public icons: Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Raman Singh, Vasundhara Raje and B S Yediyurappa. Even the formidable Narendrabhai Modi used to hang around in the back alleys of the BJP's office at Ashok Road in New Delhi before he was catapulted into the Big League. The Congress structure of starving upcoming leaders of opportunity in order that all glory may lie with the divine family is the real reason why the party does not name its Chief Ministerial candidate ahead of an election. In this respect Sheila Dikshit has set a new standard of courage by not thanking Sonia Gandhi even once after the results in Delhi. We'll drink to kind, old, endearing Sheila ji ! And please, please change the age old Punjab alcoholic beverages act to bring the drinking age in New Delhi down to 18 from 25, if you can!

Assembly Polls -I : Congress celebrates as BJP falls short of its own expectations

The Congress and the BJP had approached the latest round of Assembly elections very differently. On the one hand, the Congress was ready to take whatever it could get, even though the party was supposed to be on the offensive in 3 states. On the other, the BJP set itself up for disappointment, happily anticipating a 4-0 result, even though it walked in with 3 incumbent governments. The race ended in a dull draw; the BJP forgot to celebrate its spectacular victory in 2 states, while the Congress workers could not care less that their party was steamrolled a second time running in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.

Delhi has the state that soured it most of all for the BJP. The BJP had been on a high in the state, sweeping the Municipal polls a year ago; even in August, BJP insiders had been assured that the party had a 5% lead over the Congress. All they had to do was grab the cake and eat it. For the BJP, this was a case of a slip 'twixt the cup and the lip. They named the wrong leader, paid heed to the wrong people while distributing tickets and even drummed up the wrong issues. It is fitting that disappointed BJP workers shouted slogans against Chief Ministerial candidate V K Malhotra when results were declared on Dec 8. V K Malhotra never quite had the charm of the suave Sheila Dikshit. Sheila Dikshit, despite her advanced years, speaks to those that talk about the future of Delhi, while Malhotra is a left over from the Punjabi politics of old.

Again, it wasn't entirely Malhotra's fault. He did what he knew best and that was the politics of old. The party was wrong in picking him in the first place. This shows the lethargy of the BJP command in New Delhi. In 2003, the BJP brought Madan Lal Khurana back from the wilderness and asked him to take over the reigns. The party suffered. The BJP tried the same botched policy yet again in 2008. A hardworking man with a clean image such as Dr. Harshvardhan should have been put up against Sheila Dikshit. Dr. Harshvardhan singlehandedly worked to bring the party a spectacular victory in the MCD elections early last year. If the BJP stops rewarding honest political achievement like it once did, it will have to face many more setbacks. Also the BJP's Delhi bigwigs did not want to step up to the plate; Arun Jaitley wanted to be a "national leader" and Sushma Swaraj would rather be the chief of the party's campaign committee than hit the streets of Delhi.

That apart, the issues that the BJP raised did not resonate well with the people. Delhi is distinct from all other Indian states, a "made in media" state as Rajdeep Sardesai cleverly called it. Naturally, this means that the Delhi voter is more informed and sophisticated than any other kind of voter in the country. This includes, among other things, the ability to discern state issues and national issues and global trends from the failures of the state government. Sheila Dikshit realized that her party was sinking and on the campaign trail she challenged her detractors to find fault with her administration for the issues facing Delhi. The approach worked, principally because Dikshit's work and initiatives have been fundamentally good for the city. The people of Delhi knew better than to accuse her for the terror attacks in Delhi and elsewhere, even in the face of extreme provocation in Mumbai. Some "issues" that the BJP raised, such as suggesting that Sheila wanted to build a death trap for citizens by creating the Bus Rapid Transit corridor, actually insulted the intelligence of the voter.

Dikshit has proved a winner in every way possible. One might remember that she kept away from the campaigning for the MCD polls last year; a clever ploy that allowed her detractors in the Congress to squabble in full public view and commit political suicide. She never had to take the blame for the Congress defeat in the MCD and she even went so far as to publicly congratulate the BJP on its resurrection. In Dec 2003, she had to suffer a humiliating 10 day wait after winning the election as party insiders tried to ambush her behind closed doors; she made sure that would not happen again.



Vasundhara Raje has every reason to feel sorry for herself, since she has been the only incumbent Chief Minister who has had to put in her papers after these elections. Apparently the last minute visit to the deity in Banswara has had not had an effect. Even before the results came out, the BJP had been nervous about Rajasthan. The party had won the state by a mere 2.5% margin in 2003, a margin that many would argue, would be impossible for an incumbent government to defend. Add to that a horrible caste war and a 78-95 loss does not seem so bad for the BJP after all. Rajasthan has a history of rotating governments and a 17 seat gap is one of the thinnest margins ever in the state. Besides, one must note that, technically, the Rajasthan Assembly is hung (a fact that many media outfits seemed to forget as Rajasthan was included as a Congress "victory" without much reflection; although the BJP did not get similar treatment when it was merely 4 seats away from power in Karnataka this year) Compare it to the 120-53 victory that the BJP achieved in 2003 and you see why Vasundhara Raje has no reason to be ashamed of herself.

Sure, the BJP failed itself in ticket distribution. The party held back decisions till the last minute, created lots of confusion and suspense, dropped lots of sitting MLAs, but it didn't quite work in the end. Chief Minister Raje didn't have a free hand in ticket distribution and had to defer to part "elders", who despite having no electoral worth whatsoever, were able to unduly influence the nomination process. The difference could not have been more stark; the exhilerating response to Vasundhara's rally on Nov 6 filled BJP workers' hearts with enthusiasm, while the same people were glum and complaining the day the party nominees were named. The common BJP worker and his Chief Minister have every reason to feel let down by their party. There have never been more favourable circumstances in Rajasthan for a ruling party going into elections and the BJP was unable to make the most of the goodwill for Raje.

The positive for Raje is that she has become a mass leader, a far cry from early 2003, when many suspected her ability to connect with the people. The party's top leadership has taken cognizance of the difficulties she faced and will, in all likelihood, give her a lot more say when the Lok Sabha polls are held next year. Since Lal Krishna Advani, unlike Vajpayee, has only nationwide recognition and instead of nationwide appeal, he will have to rely on state leaders to deliver for him. And Rajasthan is what many would consider "a natural BJP state". After losing badly to the Congress in the Rajasthan polls of 1998, the party rebounded spectacularly in the Lok Sabha polls held less than a year from that date. The Congress has secured a reluctant madate from the people and has already put a foot wrong by installing Gehlot, a man much disliked by the Jats. Hardly anyone in Rajasthan voted to bring back Gehlot's unresponsive administration.

(We deal with Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh in the next part)

Terrorists claim more casualties as heads roll in Congress

The Congress led UPA Government at the Centre has finally found itself under pressure to act. After the second attack in New Delhi months ago, the government promised to set up an anti-terror agency and Cabinet Minister Kapil Sibal assured the nation that the government was moving its feet. It turns out that those feet were made of solid lead.

Stung to the quick by public outrage over the Mumbai terror attacks, the Congress has had to remove the most notorious of its lazy figureheads. Senior Gandhi family loyalist Shivraj Patil, having disgraced the Home Ministry for four long years, has had to put in his papers. The same fate has befallen Vilasrao Desmukh, who between hopping socialite parties in South Mumbai and pushing for his son's movie career, has never taken affairs of state very seriously.

There are two questions here, one obvious and the other more subtle. The obvious question is why the underperformers in question had not been previously removed. Does it take scores of terrorist attacks, culminating in a 60 hour showdown in the financial capital of the country to remove a Union Minister who, time and again, has been rated as the worst government functionary, a man who has neither administrative ability, political acumen nor mass support.

The weakness of the UPA government actually follows from a political culture created way back in 2004. After the rousing victory of the Congress and its allies, the winners took the extraordinary step of excluding the enthusiastic new leaders from the administration. Those such as Ambika Soni, Jaipal Reddy and even Kapil Sibal were either excluded from the ministry altogether or pushed into unimportant positions. Young leaders such as Milind Deora, Jyotiraditya Scindia, Sachin Pilot and Jitin Prasad were also kept away, for fear that they would steal the thunder from the Congress' highly unintelligent heir apparent: Rahul baba. Instead the group of people who were summoned to New Delhi to govern the country were mostly die hard Gandhi loyalists, leaders of a bygone era. The plan was to make the country slide backwards into 1980.

The second, more subtle question is what actually impelled the government to act to remove its senior functionaries. Was it public pressure or media pressure? There is an uncomfortable class war issue underlying the Mumbai episode that needs to be addressed. After the 26/11 attacks, those in the elite media realized that their own lives were under threat as well and that their support for the human rights of terrorists had not earned them sympathy of radical Jihadis. Much to their horror, they figured out that terrorists understood the power of symbolism and henceforth would be more likely to attack "high value targets" instead of taking the cheaper human lives on footpaths and temples. Notice that the media, the fourth estate of democracy, is actually the least democratic of all. Ironically enough, it always seems to be the most democratic of them all...the true voice of the people. Therein lies the danger.