BJP's Agastya Yatra... Cyber city turns saffron

As the results piled in on May 25, the Congress did not show even a hint of defiance. Instead they made a few familiar noises about "communal forces" and gave away with a whimper. It's the symptom of a party that has been beaten to pulp.

The events of the last few weeks have resulted in a paradigm shift in Indian politics. After twenty eight years of existence, the BJP has made it across the Vindhyas into the south, thereby finally becoming a true national party. What is most laudable is that this success was achieved the hard, honest way; through building an organization over decades, leading farmers' agitations, building and facilitating communities and in the final knockout punch, bringing forth a charismatic leader for popular opinion to coalesce around. The BJP had a good wind in its sails. No wonder the millionaires, the mining barons of Karnataka, jumped aboard. The BJP ate into JD(S) support in South Karnataka and translated its groundswell of urban support into a majority of seats from Bangalore. The party kept local anti-incumbency down to a minimum in coastal Karnataka and made the most of the Mumbai Karnataka region. Under BSY's leadership, the party had a lock on the Lingayat vote, but throughout the campaign, it remained watchful so as to not seriously alienate the powerful Vokkaligas, projecting BSY as a transformational rather than a caste leader.

As opposed to the BJP that had needed a final boost to make it across the finish line in Karnataka, the JD(S), or more precisely, Gowda & Sons, had needed one final act of treachery so dark so as to be marred forever. Throughout the course of the campaign, Gowda and his ken had shamelessly peddled the idea that they would win enough seats to hold the next government hostage as well. The fair minded people of the state had better judgment than to let the scum have their way. Running for election with a well proclaimed desire to act as spoiler (or "vote katwa", as the derogatory term goes in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh) does not go down well with the electorate. The same desire doomed Paswan in Bihar a few years ago. And in Karnataka, yet another regional satrap, who leads yet another splinter of the former Janata Dal, has walked into this trap. It usually so happens that the party which walks to a majority does so by absorbing the votes of smaller fringe parties, independents and "others" and not so much from its big rival(s). Instead, in this case, the BJP and in some places, even the Congress, took votes right out of the JD(S)' basket.

What is worse for the JD(S) is that there is now some stigma attached to them. Although the Congress knows that it could have won the election had it had an alliance with JD(S), it steered clear of Gowda's post election offer to form a coalition government. And similarly, the Congress also does not want to extend the UPA to include JD(S) for the coming Lok Sabha elections. As one JD(S) leader candidly admitted; "No one wants to touch us after our rejection by the people".

Of course, there can be no untouchables in politics. Politics, after all, is the art of the possible. BSY obviously does not like the idea of a government supported by 4 independents and is open to obtaining a majority on his own. Given the sense of despair among JD(S) leaders, it would be relatively simple to get 19 of their 28 MLAs to join the winning side. But the BJP, which is basking in the freshness of their southern appeal, something that Kapil Sibal called "the novelty factor", does not want to sully its image by looking like a party of manipulators; at least not until the Lok Sabha elections are over. If the BJP were to split the JD(S) before that, the Congress would have an immediate excuse to ally with the remainder of the party and the electoral arithmetic is such that Congress + Gowda is well nigh enough to sweep the state.

There are several other factors that made the Karnataka election one of a kind. A peculiar feature was the absence of an incumbent government. In some places, the people did turn to local anti-incumbency; but, by and large, they were ready to let the BJP have a go at power. This also explains why the Congress held on to its vote share and even made inroads into some BJP territories in coastal Karnataka. Another factor that must have given all parties the jitters was the reallocation of seats across the state. The shake up of the political map had given a huge advantage to the Congress, which would have had some 86 seats in the new combination, were we to preserve the voting patterns of 2004, instead of the 69 they had in the outgoing assembly. The BJP worked its way out of this hole by expanding its support into Congress dominated Bangalore and helping itself to a vast majority of the reserved seats, where the absence of regional strongmen made the people vote with whoever carried the momentum of the election.

A lively debate can also ensue over whether the BJP could have scaled these heights had it not been betrayed by the JD(S). Had BSY completed a 20 month term in power, the BJP would have had the immediate burden of anti-incumbency. As such, the people would weigh in the BJP rule against Dharam Singh's administration. It is hard to tell whether a squabble ridden coalition government, with BSY pegged back by JD(S), would have found favour with the electorate.

The electoral festival moves up to Central and Northern India where the BJP has to defend. Although the party is placed comfortably in Chhattisgarh and Delhi, it has something to worry about in Rajasthan and much more in Madhya Pradesh. However, it would be all too simplistic to presuppose that anti-incumbency would unseat the BJP in both these states, "as a matter of course". It must be remembered that either of these states is what many would consider a "natural BJP state"; and that the BJP won them back in 2003 by projecting powerful figures who carried the party on their shoulders. In fact, Uma Bharati had finished touring every single one of Madhya Pradesh's 230 constituencies by this time in 2003. And Vasundhara Raje had done the same with her Parivartan Yatra in Rajasthan. In contrast, the Congress is still waiting for its campaign to begin. After two years of straight defeat, the Congress faces the stiff task of whipping its cadre into action in the heartland states.

The pollsters, of course, got it wrong again. But, imagine my surprise, when CNN-IBN, red in the face, claimed an exit poll success rate of above 80% on an average. Evidently, "the country's foremost poll expert", "Prof" Yadav has the unique privilege of being able to write his own performance review. Yet, the 80% figure mystified me, until I remembered how pollsters think. There was this time in Uttarakhand, in 2007, when the exit poll got it wrong in every single part of the state: Garhwal, Kumaon and Maidan, but was lucky enough to come up with the exact reverse of the actual voting pattern. As such, the BJP and Congress were projected as winning the same range of seats; while the BJP won the upper limit of the range, the Congress was pushed to the lower limit. Of course, "Prof" Yadav brazenly claimed victory! And Uttarakhand, a small state with a well established two party system and an obvious cycle of incumbency, is what statisticians would consider the "basic case". To the chagrin of pollsters, the errors in Karnataka got stacked in one direction. It seems that everyone had something to learn from this election.

Respond ... NOW!

The demographic of India is such that terrorists are bound to have some success. That said, the all round impression is that terrorists are getting it all too easy. The latest round of blasts in Jaipur have further enhanced the worldwide reputation that India has so carefully built up over three decades; the reputation of being a "sucker state". When Jaipur was hit on May 13, the Central Government was slow to respond; when it did it told us to wipe up the blood and silently mourn the dead.

It is not that India was always like this. Neither has this been a Congress tradition. Under Indira Gandhi, our Army managed to shatter the Pakistani Defence forces in one swift manoeuvre in 1971. We acquired nuclear capabilities in 1974 and uprooted Khalistani extremists from the Golden Temple a decade later. But then, Narasimha Rao sat on India's nuclear weapons programme through five years of his rule, always too scared to mention this to the world. Manmohan Singh, who, only a decade ago, had courageously proclaimed a free economy for a confident India, has distinguished himself through inaction as Prime Minister. One is tempted to concede that Rahul's faux pas a year ago had a kernel of truth to it: It takes a Gandhi to energize the Congress, though not the nation.

We all understand how vital the Indo-Pak peace process is to our long term security interests. India needs to focus on the much greater challenge on the Northern Frontier, for which purpose the North West must be secured. And there are still many eggheads in Washington who swear by Pakistan. Unless India gives, at the very least, an impression of a willingness to work with Pakistan on terrorism, India's concerns will not find favour with the old guard, some of whom, among them the inexorable Henry Kissinger, have not moved ahead since the Cold War. However, in doing so, if India appears to be bending backwards, particularly at a moment when Pakistan is at its most vulnerable, it is quite likely that the world will just walk all over us.

In order to negotiate from a position of strength, India needs to build up, at the very least, a credible intelligence system. In order to call the bluff on terrorist camps in PoK and Bangladesh, India must present well documented evidence before the world. It is a pity that India refuses to overtly consider this possibility that is ours for the taking; it would be all too easy for Indian agencies to access Israeli assistance, which they would be all too happy to offer. And finally, courageous acts breed prestige and in a strange way, also generate credibility. For instance, on Sept 4, 2007, Israel insolently sent a small contingent of bombers to smash an innocuous looking compound in Syria. Given the credibility of Mossad and the IDF, most of the world concluded, without any visible evidence whatsoever, that the target had to be important... perhaps even a nuclear facility!

The Jaipur blasts also have several repercussions on the domestic front. We consider them one by one. Let us talk about POTA. It is not that a single law can make the Indian people safe from terrorism; much less one that prescribes drastic measures, for terrorism is, by its own description, a death cult. It is all about letting the terrorists know that the Indian State is eager and willing to take them on. The repeal of POTA sent out a wrong message, further bolstering the idea that Indians are "weaklings who believe in democracy".

Unfortunately, the moment for the execution of convicted terrorist Mohammad Afzal has passed. If the BJP were to come to power and order his execution, it would create a gruesome spectacle for the world, for it would appear that his hanging was a political act, rather than the outcome of a legal process that has unambiguously found him guilty of an act of war against the State. Afzal is not a dissenter but a terrorist, as such he deserves to perish as mere scum and not as a hero. His sentence is not due to the weight of public opinion, but due to the weight of evidence against him. Unless this government or the next is able to make this distinction clearly, hanging Afzal would add nothing to India's war on terrorism, if we are fighting it at all.

Vasundhara Raje might have hit the nail on the head when she put the spotlight on (illegal) immigrants from Bangladesh. Incidents such as these are impossible without local support. Immigrants from Bangladesh had come under the scanner after the Hyderabad blasts as well. Although it is possible to sympathize with hordes of poor people fleeing famine in a failed state, they have no excuse to transplant their anarchy to India. Deporting them en masse would be the best option, if only it were viable and humanitarian(not to mention the fact that Bangladesh would never accept them back). But it will not help for the Rani to take her frustration out on these immigrants, the large majority of whom are probably just trying to make a living for themselves. The government needs to act decisively to secure the Eastern Border and crack down on corrupt BSF personnel who have made illegal immigration into a thriving business.

Finally, the Oracle mentions that these blasts will have no impact on the Assembly elections due in November. Given the temperament of the Chief Minister, who naturally steers clear from communally sensitive issues, the terrorist attacks will have no place in the BJP's campaign later this year. In December of 2007, even as the BJP top brass heaped praise on "Moditva" (=vikas + hindutva) as the standard model for retaining power, there was a whimper of dissent from Vasundhara, who mentioned pointedly that Moditva was not necessarily the only model. Therefore, although the people of Rajasthan can expect a few visits from the Lion of Gujarat, he will not be setting the issues. For both BJP and Congress, it is back to the drawing board.

Forgetting Pokhran - II?

It is impossible to think of a better beginning to this article than this excerpt from the India rising campaign, delivered by Amitabh Bachchan with all his incredible gravitas;

"For over half a century, our nation has sprung, stumbled, run, fallen, rolled over, got up and dusted herself; and cantered, sometimes lurched on. But now, in our sixtieth year as a free nation; the ride has brought us to the edge of time's great precipice. And one India, a tiny little voice at the back of the head, is looking down at the bottom of the ravine and hesitating. The other India is looking up at the sky and saying: It's time to fly".

Take a moment to think about India; for the world is thinking about us. Of all the lessons that we have learnt over the last decade, the greatest is that we need no longer apologize for being Indian. This is an incredible success story that began, both literally and figuratively, with a Big Bang in the deserts of Rajasthan on May 11, 1998.

Pokhran - II marks a major change in the life of India; a moment when the old nation was swept away and our history began anew. For an international community that had been used to dismissing India as the modest (and, more importantly, harmless) land of Gandhi, this was aggression from the most unlikely quarter. Threats and sanctions flew thick and fast as the world was misled into thinking they could browbeat India into surrender and disarmament. Reviled by all, India was pushed to the brink of the precipice; from that point onwards, it was either success or death. In the battle of wills that followed, India prevailed and this shall forever remain the last occasion in history that anyone supposed that India could be subdued by threats; or for that matter, shown any condescension. Pokhran was a new beginning marked by innovation, reason, enterprise and modern science. Some five decades ago, Pt. Nehru visualized India as an eternal third world nation and as long as the Gandhis ruled supreme, this remained a self fulfilling prophecy.

At midnight (IST) on August 15, 1947 (at which time, it was 2:30pm in New York), Nehru proclaimed “while the world sleeps, India shall awake to life and freedom”. In a rational world, this statement would have evoked nothing but laughter and ridicule. Instead, in the kangaroo universe of the Congress Party; there was clapping, there was applause and this “inspiring” line was recorded into history books so that succeeding generations could dwell upon it with pride and patriotism. Early last year, the Congress clapped again, this time when Rahul Gandhi ascribed all of India’s achievements, including the breakup of Pakistan, to the initiative of his family and rued the fact that the Gandhis had not been around to personally guide their party in the 90’s, leading to the lapse of guard that allowed the Babri Masjid to be demolished. Given this sycophancy, is it any surprise that the sacrifices of soldiers in Kargil and the nuclear tests at Pokhran have been ignored by the current government?

Despite the pace of economic growth, India faces several internal challenges. Terrorists pick and choose Indian cities at will and claim as many Indian lives as they want. Despite being the worst victim of terrorism in the democratic world, we do not have a single law that deals specifically with terrorism. As such, our people need to be reminded of our achievements as a nation in order to maintain our confidence. The tenth anniversary of the Pokhran tests was a perfect opportunity to do the same. We the people of India have a right to celebrate our national achievements without being restrained down by internal politics. By denying us this opportunity, the Congress Party has done our people, our scientists and our soldiers a grave injustice.

Ironically, the only people who seemed to officially remember the anniversary of India’s ascension to the nuclear club; were the terrorists. They made sure that on May 13, 2008, the capital of Rajasthan was stained red with blood. The Congress Party, which is always on its feet in Parliament each time December 6 comes around, never noticed when May 11 and 13 came and went. In fact, the Prime Minister delivered a speech to the DRDO on May 12, but to everyone’s horror, did not even mention the nuclear tests.

Further this week, Minister of State for Defence Pallam Raju cheekily told CNN-IBN that there was nothing to celebrate about Pokhran – II after all! The minister elaborated that the nuclear tests had only brought sanctions, widespread criticism and hindered every single one of India’s collaborative, international initiatives. To my knowledge, a more disgusting statement has not been recorded to this date. Perhaps, later this year, the minister will go so far as to say that we should not celebrate Independence Day either, because of the riots that came in the wake of Partition. Or maybe, the minister for defence would also like to surrender the Siachen Glacier as well as the Kashmir Valley; because manning the cold northern frontier causes physical hardship to soldiers and is a drain on the nation’s finances! Apparently, national security and national pride are not significant rewards at all. With a government like this, who needs a “foreign hand”?

An inconvenient bill: Women's reservation

The sad theme of reservation is about to play out once again on the Indian political scene. Only this time, there is a consensus among all major political formations; frankly, this subversion of democracy has been carried out so many times before that it seems to fair to ask if one more stab could do any further harm.

We have heard of women's reservation so many times before that it is impossible to believe that it is finally happening. Although I cannot recall the precise time in our political history when this issue took root, I have a distinct recollection of a very vitriolic speech by Uma Bharati (little surprise!) in Parliament in 1997 daring the then United Front Government to face the wrath of women voters at the hustings. The rest of the BJP probably never shared her zeal; for they did precious little for this cause during their term in power. With just a year to go for the elections, the Congress is desperate to be seen as doing something; anything! And so it happened that this bill and all the banal arguments that come with it, were recovered from the rubbish heap of bad ideas and placed on the table.

First, let us see why political parties dragged their feet over the issue for so long. This is a classic situation in which the leadership of a party is pitted against its own members. While the party high command waxes eloquent about the emancipation of women, the small time MP will face the axe. The sad reality of the bill is that those same MPs will probably wrangle for their tickets to be allotted to female family members, thus starting a dynasty (albeit matriarchal) in every third parliamentary constituency in the country. Besides, all parties stand to gain and lose equally from this measure; in which sense we have an obvious parallel with the anti-defection bill. The BJP which was already bound itself to 33% reservation internally, is eager to make sure that all others share this ordeal. So is the Congress, which has nothing to show for four years in power. In it's zeal, the Congress has offered us an opportunity to see the inner dynamics of the UPA more clearly. It appears that Laloo's opposition to the bill does not matter any more; the Congress has given him up for lost as far as the election is concerned. With the comrades joining the chorus, the bill looks all set to breeze through Parliament as far as numbers are concerned (note in passing: For a party that claims to speak for the underprivileged sections of society, the CPI(M) seems to be dominated almost entirely by upper caste men from a Hindu background; in fact the all powerful politburo has but a lone female member! But then, we have been told, time and again, by Left Front leaders at various levels, that we "do not really understand the culture of the Communist Party", haven't we?)

Is there any good that can come of this bill? It is certainly possible, though to a very limited extent. Certain regional parties that are run by clans will face some of the heat. The SAD, the SP and the DMK are three such easy targets. The ways of their ruling families have become so ossified that even a shift towards matriarchy would be a welcome change. Besides, every party is plagued, to a greater or lesser extent, by local satraps; these are local strongmen (code for anything from criminal to a godman to a caste mukhiya) with their own axes to grind; political liabilities who show up before every election to demand tickets for "their men". This bill might provide parties with the perfect excuse to pass them over and scour the ranks of their hardworking activists for freshness of ideas and purpose. Of course, it would be wonderful if this act of Parliament could energize the female demographic in India to further involve itself in the democratic process.

We have to realize that the Union of India is a democracy. That means all of us have the same civil and legal rights, regardless of gender, caste, creed, religious or political affiliation. Reservation is merely a form of legal discrimination. As such, it generates negative emotions. We have reservations for SCs, STs, tribals, OBCs and what not... and now we want to add women as yet another category. In India, we have "minority educational institutions" that reserve upto 50% of their seats for those of their faith... Raj Thackeray wants reservation for his "Marathi Manoos". How is it any more unfair to ask for reservation on the basis of race or language than it is to do so on the basis of gender? Where does this end? With separate electorates; separate linguistic zones, or with separate nations?

The advancement of women is one of the things we had been doing correctly in India. Yesterday, we learned that a woman is tipped to lead India's most advanced missile defence programme, the Agni-III. The de facto leader of India is a woman; so is our President; so have been the last two Chief Ministers of Delhi. Both Delhi and Mumbai have female mayors. Uttar Pradesh, the most populous state in India, is run by a woman and so is Rajasthan, the largest state. Is it not wonderful how much our women have achieved in sixty years of our existence as a free nation? And now let us examine reservation all over again:

1. Reservation assumes that the children of a historically privileged group are somehow "responsible" for the bigotry of the past and ought to make reparations; i.e. the sins of the father are somehow passed on to the son (pun unintended)

2. Reservation presumes that those of the historically underprivileged group are incapable of advancing themselves unaided; as such we profess lack of faith in individual enterprise and achievement.

3. Reservation leads to negative feelings; after the bad blood and oppression of centuries, why would we want more of that?

The story of Indian women is that of a dream coming true. Women have achieved these heights through hard work and individual brilliance. This should not come to naught.