Thank you boys, for the entertainment!-I

This is why I love democracy, not just at an intellectual level, but also for its extreme entertainment value. The people of India have just been treated to one of the keenest political contests in our history. The Oracle now undertakes a systematic analysis of the situation and how it affects all parties concerned (including the nation and its people, lest we forget).

1. The Congress: For a party that has been parched in waiting for election victory the results of the confidence vote were as sweet nectar. Across the Capital and across the country, Congress workers celebrated the moment with gusto. And who could blame them. Now that the euphoria is over, it is time for the Congress to take stock of the situation. In spite of all the murky deals, seedy subplots and dirty handshakes, the Congress has come out of the battle relatively unscathed. This was partly due to the uproarious manner in which the survival of Manmohan Singh's government was welcomed by the business community, the media and diplomats across the world. The other part was due to a "feel good factor" that ran through the people as soon as they knew the yoke of the Left had finally been lifted, without the immediate stress of a General Election.

This is Manmohan Singh's finest hour. He will almost certainly clinch his beloved Nuclear Deal and he has about nine months to pursue his reform agenda without being straddled by the regressive Left and concerns over the survival of his government. Besides, the confidence vote has bolstered his image, both nationwide and internationally, as a tall leader. This puts some wind into the Congress sails as they go into the 2009 elections projecting him as Prime Minister. Dr. Singh has finally been recognized as a politician of substance.

Sonia Gandhi's great success over four years of power has been to control sycophancy within her own party from reaching unsightly levels; for she has managed to get her Congressmen to regard the Prime Minister with some respect. The victory in Parliament on July 22 was projected, almost exclusively, as a victory for Dr. Singh and his UPA government. Of course, Sonia ji's ultimate aim is to secure the throne for her son Rahul. Unfortunately, the second part of her plan is yet to really take off. Rahul Gandhi's highly boyish speech in Parliament during the confidence vote confirms my suspicions that he is a highly unintelligent person. Sure, he has completed his Discover India tour and connected with many many people, but traveling the length and breadth of India surely does not seem to have increased his wisdom. Rahul has to come to terms with the fact that the Gandhi name no longer enjoys the credibility it had two generations ago; therefore in the absence of a real party organization and an inspiring slogan, he will, for the most part, be dismissed as just another politician with promises to make and little to offer.

The Congress has to come to terms with its new relationship with the Samajwadi Party. Something tells me that they haven't thought this through. In fact, in the heat of the contest, the party was too eager to employ the manipulative skills of Amar Singh to think much about Uttar Pradesh. If the Congress allies with the SP in Uttar Pradesh, its remaining base will be completely destroyed. If it does no, the government will enter Election 2009 looking like the potential loser. The party should realize that the current "feel good factor" about the survival of the Government is strictly about stability; the Aam Aadmi will completely reevaluate this piecemeal government before the elections.

More praise is in order for Sonia Gandhi. She has swallowed her pride and broken bread with the same Mulayam Singh that denied her the PM's post in 1998. She has managed to maintain that the confidence vote was all about Dr. Singh and thus enhanced his stature as a credible leader who has some measure of political control over his own government. This follows her previous successful political moves such as reaching out to the DMK (despite the Rajiv assassination accusations), building alliances in 2004 and declining the Prime Minister's chair. Sonia ji has proved to be one step ahead of her party.

2. The Left: There must be a lot of hand wringing going on at AKGopalan Bhavan in New Delhi. For four years the Left promised to bite and when they finally did, it turned out to be an empty boast. The Indo-US nuclear deal is all set to go through and there is nothing they can do about it. The newly unfettered Dr. Singh, in all probability, has a ruthless reform agenda in his mind. Worse still, election prospects in Kerala are awfully dim and West Bengal is, ever so slightly, beginning to slip away.

Serves them right: you could say. For four years the Left has borne out the UPA on the floor of the House and refused to take responsibility for the actions and policies of the same government. The arrogance reached its peak when the Left objected to the fact that the Prime Minister had declared his commitment to the nuclear deal to the people of India (before leaving for the G-8 meet in Tokyo) without taking them into confidence. The Left demanded that the Prime Minister seek "clearance" from them before flying to meet the G-8 in Tokyo. The Left demanded and demanded, cribbed and complained and finally went home with nothing.

The Left parties are the actual culprit in the political deadlock over the nuclear deal. This is because of the approach that the Left takes to governance. That is because the Left does not see democracy for what is. Democracy is NOT a dictatorship of the majority. The Left prevented the Prime Minister from walking over to the BJP and asking for support on the nuclear issue. It would have been delightful if the Congress and the BJP could have come together and negotiated a Deal that was manifestly in national interest. Given that the BJP was responsible for the "pro US turn, pro Israel turn" in India's politics, carrying out the first military nuclear tests, talking the Americans out of all the sanctions they had imposed and coming up with the idea that their could actually be nuclear trade between the two countries, it would never have been too hard to get the BJP on board. Instead, the Left mounted a humiliation offensive on the Opposition benches, firing from the shoulder of the ruling UPA. If only the Left had conceded that the Opposition had a right to exist, things would have been quite different.

No mention of July 22, 2008 is complete without a reference to Somnath Chatterjee's role. In all fairness, he has no moral right to continue after the Government survived the vote and his party is in the Opposition. It is true that the Constitution requires the Speaker to transcend party politics. Somnath Da needs to understand that this moral obligation (of being above party politics) applies to the Speaker only regarding the decisions he makes in running the House. In other words, the Speaker is called upon to face a difficult challenge; that of being objective and fair in all decisions despite being a member of a political party.

The problem with Somnath Chatterjee is that he is a narcissist. He believes that his own interpretation of the Constitution is above that of any other, including that of the Supreme Court of India. We all remember how Somnath Da objected to the manifestly fair decision of the Supreme Court in the Jharkhand confidence vote contest in 2005. And by the way, Somnath Da, the same Inder Singh Namdhari stepped down as speaker when Arjun Munda lost the confidence of the Jharkhand Vidhan Sabha .... wish you would have a spark of shame left in you.

We will continue with the analysis of the situation in the next post.

What is the big deal? The Indo-US nuclear agreement-I

There has perhaps never been an issue that has shaken up India's politics the way the Indo-US nuclear deal has. With global ambitions creeping into the Indian psyche, we Indians are investing in our future like never before. And if we are to achieve The Dream, we the people must watch over our elected government like never before.

Click here to read the text of the Indo-US nuclear deal

Click here to read the text of the Hyde Act

In terms of bare bones, the Nuclear Agreement will allow the US, as well as all other members of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, to sell both nuclear fuel and nuclear technology to India. This gives a windfall of business to American companies and gives India access to cutting edge nuclear technology instead of having to persist in its attempts to reinvent each wheel separately. In return they ask that India use this nuclear fuel strictly for civilian purposes and that it be up to the IAEA to independently monitor whether India is sticking to this requirement. The big idea is that this would free up domestic uranium completely, thus allowing for a more rapid expansion of India's small nuclear arsenal.

First up, there could be nothing possibly wrong about the IAEA inspecting India's civilian nuclear facilities. Some of our facilities are old and not in good repair. International inspections would make sure that they are held to a high standard and eliminate concerns over a (dare we say it) major accident. This is the least compromise that one could be expected to make for living in a world community.

The question of national pride comes next. And this is where things get difficult. The Nuclear Deal is complicated by the US Hyde Act, which details American nuclear policy towards India. One of the particularly insulting provisions in the latter is the requirement that a comprehensive report on India's nuclear programme be tabled with the US Congress each year. The other disturbing fact is that the Hyde Act calls on both India and the US to "set a date for cutting off the production of fissile material ". Although the former is a cause for India to feel slighted, it is not in itself reason enough to reject an agreement with such profound implications. After all, the Americans could conversely point to the fact that they have swallowed their pride on roughly three decades of US policy, rolled back all the economic sanctions that followed Pokhran-II and lost diplomatic capital by admitting brazenly to the world that America will make exceptions for its friends. The latter is more serious. If the US were to put its foot down over the demand that India cut off production of fissile material at some point, things could get worse very quickly. Any number of things might happen in the future and it would be downright foolish to sign a document hoping that some clause in it would be forgotten in course of time.

Of course we all know that the powerful can make excuses for themselves. The concern is over whether this deal can be used to rein in India and actually prevent it from becoming too powerful, or more precisely, hold India permanently in place as a second class partner to the US. The fact that, in an emergency, America reserves the right to walk out of the agreement altogether and demand all the nuclear fuel back, does nothing to address these concerns. Despite displaying all the signs of a durable alliance, we should remember that India-US relationship is still in its infancy and one need not commit too much, too early. The text of the nuclear agreement says clearly that both sides understand fully that a recall of nuclear material would have extreme consequences on the relationship between the two nations. But are the odds against this course of action forbidding for America? The Bush administration has made America a very unpopular force in the world. As such, what could America gain by making enemies in New Delhi? But then again, this state of affairs might not last forever and America could gain in worldwide popularity again; surely this is something that could happen in the next 20 years which it will take for the nuclear deal to become fully operational.

Perhaps the weakest argument in favour of the deal comes from the question of energy security. This is all the more regrettable, since this is the one that is quoted most often. It is well known that the nuclear deal, when fully operational, would provide India with a mere 7% of its energy needs. If the time and energy spent on the diplomatic process and the money spent on buying foreign equipment were diverted to developing environment friendly, renewable sources of energy, or even to thorium based nuclear power, surely we could make up for this 7%. We have to digest the unpalatable fact that precious resources such as mineral oil and natural gas seem to occur almost exclusively in the most dangerous and disturbed parts of the world. As such, America and soon enough, both India and China, will have to fight more wars for oil.

It would be an extreme conclusion to say that the Nuclear Deal would make India into a subservient client state. To imagine that India, with its 1100 million fiercely proud people, with ever growing economic power to boot, could become subservient to any other nation is pure pessimism. The fact that this deal is on offer is a major diplomatic achievement that must be hailed by all; America has gone from imposing sanctions to ardently lobbying for nuclear partnership in ten years straight. America's apparent "generosity" has grown in direct proportion to India's rise as a world economic power. It therefore makes no sense to assume that the current deal is the best that we can get or that this deal can be availed only as long as Bush lasts in office. Although the UPA at home and some eggheads in the US (and businessmen wherever they are!) would have us believe that the deal is a "giveaway" and hence, a "limited time offer", there is no reason to buy into their self serving interpretation. However, it does make sense to see the Deal as some sort of beginning, a template that can be improved upon, the first step onto a minefield. It is dictated by geopolitical necessities, most of which will continue to exist long after Bush has left power.

If the Deal were to be dropped, perhaps the greatest losses would be incurred on the military front, with untold damage to India's credibility. Then there are issues that involve our domestic politics, religious sensitivities and (lest we forget) moral issues! We will address these in Part-II.

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Drama in New Delhi - II : Man of many seasons

Amar Singh knows a political opportunity when he sees it. Two weeks ago, with the Left on the verge of withdrawing support to the UPA, the SP secretary looked to pull of a superb political manoeuvre; outflanking the Left during their assault on the government, tempting the Congress into a lease of life at the Centre and preparing the ground for an alliance in Uttar Pradesh that would go to the detriment of both BSP and INC. Pointing out the fact that the nuclear deal had the backing of the widely respected (and highly popular!!) Dr. Kalam was another great excuse. Although the plot didn't quite work as well as had been planned, with at least 5 of their MPs poised to embarrass the SP, the new relationship between the Congress and the SP deserves closer examination.

The SP's motives are obvious. They have little hope of winning as many as 39 seats again should fresh elections be held now. Ever since she stunned the political pundits by winning Uttar Pradesh outright in 2007, Maya has gone from strength to strength; and is currently in the process of building a larger than life image for herself in the state. The Samajwadi's have been yearning to assert themselves for sometime now. Should they be able to draw the Congress into an alliance in Uttar Pradesh, they will be able to match Mayawati's growing clout. Such an alliance would effectively end the Congress career in the state and transfer all of its remaining support to the SP. In 2004, Mulayam Singh even ran for Parliament on the wings of hope of becoming Prime Minister. Despite a solid performance in UP, the party's newly minted MPs found themselves all dressed up with nowhere to go. As the Congress and its allies celebrated victory, with the Left ready to offer support to anyone but BJP, the Samajwadis were quite the unwanted guests. In the final year of this government, all that is set to change.

Of course, the SP must have known that their support alone was not enough to see the government through. They might have hoped that once they could create a favourable buzz about the government, other smaller parties, fence sitters etc, all of whom are averse to the idea of election, might join ship. This hasn't happened; rather all of these possible allies have taken the lead from the SP and have not been ashamed to name their price. The trend started within the SP itself, with 5 MPs staying away from the party meeting. Shibu Soren was not one to be left behind. His party has the highest number of seats in Jharkhand (among the UPA partners) but he has been left out in the cold. And he has had to spend time in prison. He wants to take his disappointment out on the Congress. The TRS, which had recently been reduced to dust in a series of byelections in Andhra, is fancying its chances as well. They have organized a series of dharnas and demonstrations demanding a resolution for a separate Telengana state.

If the government falls on July 22, it will be yet another failure for the Samajwadis. Unless they secure an alliance with Congress, it will go steadily downward from that point. The Congress, which is plagued by worries on all fronts, might just agree. Although Rahul Gandhi is rumoured to be in favour of the old Congress stance of going it alone, the party leadership might still be tempted to acquire an ally at any cost. And they might just play right into the hands of Mulayam Singh. The SP will lose no time in capturing all of the Congress base and forever limit the party to Amethi and Raebareilly, that too, only at the Lok Sabha level.

An interesting question that springs to mind is how "Maulana" Mulayam could possibly come out so strongly in favour of a deal with America. This fact reflects, yet again, the sorry state of Muslims in India. Given their lack of economic clout, widespread poverty and ignorance, the "secular" parties know all too well that they can take Muslims for granted. Mulayam knows, quite simply, that the Muslims have nowhere to go, except seek refuge with the Samajwadis. But Mayawati, who recently made history by forging a Brahmin-Dalit alliance, will definitely want to fish in these waters. She must have noticed that there were murmurs of her moving closer to the BJP. As such, Maya promptly went in for a course correction and appeared in public with the now desperate Prakash Karat, apart from inviting a cross section of (self appointed) Muslim community leaders to her residence in Lucknow. It is unlikely, however, that she will be able to stage a real exodus of Muslims from the SP anytime soon. The SP's projected gains from usurping the Congress support are far more than any trickle of Muslims "defecting" to the BSP side. But, on the knife edge of UP politics, every point counts.

The Congress has, so far, conducted itself very honourably on the issue of the confidence vote. They were adamant in their belief that the nuclear deal was good for the country, that it had to be completed right now (before Bush leaves office) and that the Left parties should either desert or fall in line. The windfall of support from the SP has made them more buoyant for the moment. The Congress has also shown the integrity to resist unreasonable demands from the SP as well as from current and former alliance partners. After running a spineless administration for over four years, Prime Minister Singh has finally decided to assert himself. It is a pity that he might lose his government over this principle.

Drama in New Delhi - I : Left without options?

When the UPA government took off in 2004, few expected the Congress-Left relationship to be an amicable one. Although the Left never did actually bite the government, their barking kept the Prime Minister awake at night. For four years, the Communists quibbled incessantly with the UPA, but got very little in practical terms. Instead they made themselves into an object of contempt for most of the Indian people. Just when the Communists had finally decided to make an advance upon the Central Government, they have been completely outflanked.

It is fair, of course, to remember that the Government cannot save itself merely with the support of the Samajwadi Party. With SP support, the numbers add up to 264, which is still 8 short of the majority mark. This means that the UPA will have to seek out Ajit Singh, perhaps a couple of independents and maybe even mend fences with K Chandrasekhara Rao. Even though the Congress well expects to live a nightmare all the way to the next election, it is glad to have the Communist albatross off its neck. And who knows; maybe the Communists will realize how desperate their position is and troop back to their original position with their tails between their legs. The important thing is that the Left can no longer assert confidently that the survival of the Central government depends on their support.

The title of this post is perhaps misleading: the Left does have options, just no good ones. There is the soft option. They could put up a grumpy appearance for a couple of weeks and then slowly nudge their way back into their sour alliance with the UPA. They could let the deal pass the House with SP support and continue to support the government otherwise. That is precisely why the BJP wants a confidence vote on the floor of Parliament immediately. The BJP's plan is to deny the Left the political space to separate the nuclear deal from the issue of the survival of the government. Should the Left now vote with the BJP on the nuclear deal and with the Congress on the confidence motion (harping on the stale slogan of "keeping communal forces at bay"), the Communists will lose whatever credibility they have left.

The other option is to make an 'honourable' exit from the government and let it continue for a few months in power with the support of SP and other tidbit parties. This is the hard option; it is more honest and keeps the identity of the Left intact. It entails salvaging the wreck of the party in Kerala and stemming the erosion of support in West Bengal. This heroic gambit is unlikely to save the party. Despite the petty squabbles, there is but one India; the people of West Bengal, the people of Kerala, the children of the poor and underprivileged want to succeed as much as anyone else. The people of India want to have a piece of their flourishing, expanding economy; they want good relations with the West and eventually, superpower status. As such, the "sour puss" politics of the Left is unlikely to capture their imagination.

The funny thing is that it didn't have to be this way. Had Harkishen Singh Surjeet been in saddle as General Secretary, this would never have happened. The old man understood ideology, but he also understood the need of the hour. But Prakash Karat dug himself and his party into a hole. This feature, wherein the young guns become too ideology driven and lose all sense of moderation, is not typical to Communists, the same has been noticed in the Muslims population in the Middle East, India and the West: while the older generation has had a sense of balance between religion and progress, the young ones have picked out the radical Wahabi version of Islam. The General Secretary must now own up all responsibility for this debacle. He was unreasonable from Day One, hardening his stance with each passing week, finally threatening to withdraw support if the Prime Minister even met Pres. Bush at the G-8 summit in Tokyo. He would have done well to remember what Atalji called "coalition dharma". He would have done well not to oppose a popular Indo-US accord and perhaps let the more earthy Sitaram Yechury have a say.

In happier times, it was Yechury who drove Amar Singh, then an unwelcome guest, to Sonia Gandhi's victory dinner. It is the Left that is unwelcome now. The Communists need to give up on their dream of a non Congress, non BJP front and embrace the inevitable. Either the Congress, or the BJP will always be within measurable distance of forming a government and as such, it will be impossible for the "third front" parties, including the Left, to resist the temptation of power. There can be no real "third front", it can never be more than a handful of small parties that will always be up for sale to either the Congress or the BJP. And that's the way it will be.