Drama in New Delhi - II : Man of many seasons

Amar Singh knows a political opportunity when he sees it. Two weeks ago, with the Left on the verge of withdrawing support to the UPA, the SP secretary looked to pull of a superb political manoeuvre; outflanking the Left during their assault on the government, tempting the Congress into a lease of life at the Centre and preparing the ground for an alliance in Uttar Pradesh that would go to the detriment of both BSP and INC. Pointing out the fact that the nuclear deal had the backing of the widely respected (and highly popular!!) Dr. Kalam was another great excuse. Although the plot didn't quite work as well as had been planned, with at least 5 of their MPs poised to embarrass the SP, the new relationship between the Congress and the SP deserves closer examination.

The SP's motives are obvious. They have little hope of winning as many as 39 seats again should fresh elections be held now. Ever since she stunned the political pundits by winning Uttar Pradesh outright in 2007, Maya has gone from strength to strength; and is currently in the process of building a larger than life image for herself in the state. The Samajwadi's have been yearning to assert themselves for sometime now. Should they be able to draw the Congress into an alliance in Uttar Pradesh, they will be able to match Mayawati's growing clout. Such an alliance would effectively end the Congress career in the state and transfer all of its remaining support to the SP. In 2004, Mulayam Singh even ran for Parliament on the wings of hope of becoming Prime Minister. Despite a solid performance in UP, the party's newly minted MPs found themselves all dressed up with nowhere to go. As the Congress and its allies celebrated victory, with the Left ready to offer support to anyone but BJP, the Samajwadis were quite the unwanted guests. In the final year of this government, all that is set to change.

Of course, the SP must have known that their support alone was not enough to see the government through. They might have hoped that once they could create a favourable buzz about the government, other smaller parties, fence sitters etc, all of whom are averse to the idea of election, might join ship. This hasn't happened; rather all of these possible allies have taken the lead from the SP and have not been ashamed to name their price. The trend started within the SP itself, with 5 MPs staying away from the party meeting. Shibu Soren was not one to be left behind. His party has the highest number of seats in Jharkhand (among the UPA partners) but he has been left out in the cold. And he has had to spend time in prison. He wants to take his disappointment out on the Congress. The TRS, which had recently been reduced to dust in a series of byelections in Andhra, is fancying its chances as well. They have organized a series of dharnas and demonstrations demanding a resolution for a separate Telengana state.

If the government falls on July 22, it will be yet another failure for the Samajwadis. Unless they secure an alliance with Congress, it will go steadily downward from that point. The Congress, which is plagued by worries on all fronts, might just agree. Although Rahul Gandhi is rumoured to be in favour of the old Congress stance of going it alone, the party leadership might still be tempted to acquire an ally at any cost. And they might just play right into the hands of Mulayam Singh. The SP will lose no time in capturing all of the Congress base and forever limit the party to Amethi and Raebareilly, that too, only at the Lok Sabha level.

An interesting question that springs to mind is how "Maulana" Mulayam could possibly come out so strongly in favour of a deal with America. This fact reflects, yet again, the sorry state of Muslims in India. Given their lack of economic clout, widespread poverty and ignorance, the "secular" parties know all too well that they can take Muslims for granted. Mulayam knows, quite simply, that the Muslims have nowhere to go, except seek refuge with the Samajwadis. But Mayawati, who recently made history by forging a Brahmin-Dalit alliance, will definitely want to fish in these waters. She must have noticed that there were murmurs of her moving closer to the BJP. As such, Maya promptly went in for a course correction and appeared in public with the now desperate Prakash Karat, apart from inviting a cross section of (self appointed) Muslim community leaders to her residence in Lucknow. It is unlikely, however, that she will be able to stage a real exodus of Muslims from the SP anytime soon. The SP's projected gains from usurping the Congress support are far more than any trickle of Muslims "defecting" to the BSP side. But, on the knife edge of UP politics, every point counts.

The Congress has, so far, conducted itself very honourably on the issue of the confidence vote. They were adamant in their belief that the nuclear deal was good for the country, that it had to be completed right now (before Bush leaves office) and that the Left parties should either desert or fall in line. The windfall of support from the SP has made them more buoyant for the moment. The Congress has also shown the integrity to resist unreasonable demands from the SP as well as from current and former alliance partners. After running a spineless administration for over four years, Prime Minister Singh has finally decided to assert himself. It is a pity that he might lose his government over this principle.