Drama in New Delhi - I : Left without options?

When the UPA government took off in 2004, few expected the Congress-Left relationship to be an amicable one. Although the Left never did actually bite the government, their barking kept the Prime Minister awake at night. For four years, the Communists quibbled incessantly with the UPA, but got very little in practical terms. Instead they made themselves into an object of contempt for most of the Indian people. Just when the Communists had finally decided to make an advance upon the Central Government, they have been completely outflanked.

It is fair, of course, to remember that the Government cannot save itself merely with the support of the Samajwadi Party. With SP support, the numbers add up to 264, which is still 8 short of the majority mark. This means that the UPA will have to seek out Ajit Singh, perhaps a couple of independents and maybe even mend fences with K Chandrasekhara Rao. Even though the Congress well expects to live a nightmare all the way to the next election, it is glad to have the Communist albatross off its neck. And who knows; maybe the Communists will realize how desperate their position is and troop back to their original position with their tails between their legs. The important thing is that the Left can no longer assert confidently that the survival of the Central government depends on their support.

The title of this post is perhaps misleading: the Left does have options, just no good ones. There is the soft option. They could put up a grumpy appearance for a couple of weeks and then slowly nudge their way back into their sour alliance with the UPA. They could let the deal pass the House with SP support and continue to support the government otherwise. That is precisely why the BJP wants a confidence vote on the floor of Parliament immediately. The BJP's plan is to deny the Left the political space to separate the nuclear deal from the issue of the survival of the government. Should the Left now vote with the BJP on the nuclear deal and with the Congress on the confidence motion (harping on the stale slogan of "keeping communal forces at bay"), the Communists will lose whatever credibility they have left.

The other option is to make an 'honourable' exit from the government and let it continue for a few months in power with the support of SP and other tidbit parties. This is the hard option; it is more honest and keeps the identity of the Left intact. It entails salvaging the wreck of the party in Kerala and stemming the erosion of support in West Bengal. This heroic gambit is unlikely to save the party. Despite the petty squabbles, there is but one India; the people of West Bengal, the people of Kerala, the children of the poor and underprivileged want to succeed as much as anyone else. The people of India want to have a piece of their flourishing, expanding economy; they want good relations with the West and eventually, superpower status. As such, the "sour puss" politics of the Left is unlikely to capture their imagination.

The funny thing is that it didn't have to be this way. Had Harkishen Singh Surjeet been in saddle as General Secretary, this would never have happened. The old man understood ideology, but he also understood the need of the hour. But Prakash Karat dug himself and his party into a hole. This feature, wherein the young guns become too ideology driven and lose all sense of moderation, is not typical to Communists, the same has been noticed in the Muslims population in the Middle East, India and the West: while the older generation has had a sense of balance between religion and progress, the young ones have picked out the radical Wahabi version of Islam. The General Secretary must now own up all responsibility for this debacle. He was unreasonable from Day One, hardening his stance with each passing week, finally threatening to withdraw support if the Prime Minister even met Pres. Bush at the G-8 summit in Tokyo. He would have done well to remember what Atalji called "coalition dharma". He would have done well not to oppose a popular Indo-US accord and perhaps let the more earthy Sitaram Yechury have a say.

In happier times, it was Yechury who drove Amar Singh, then an unwelcome guest, to Sonia Gandhi's victory dinner. It is the Left that is unwelcome now. The Communists need to give up on their dream of a non Congress, non BJP front and embrace the inevitable. Either the Congress, or the BJP will always be within measurable distance of forming a government and as such, it will be impossible for the "third front" parties, including the Left, to resist the temptation of power. There can be no real "third front", it can never be more than a handful of small parties that will always be up for sale to either the Congress or the BJP. And that's the way it will be.