Back in business?

Chief Minister Vansundhara Raje can afford to breathe easy. The fires from the Jaipur blasts have been put out and the dust has settled on the Gujjar agitation. With the nation turning its attention to the shameful controversy surrounding the Amarnath shrine and then to the much larger issue of the survival of the government, Rajasthan can take a much needed break... before the breathless campaign for the November elections begins. Amid the lull, it seems to be of little concern, either to the government or to the people, that the perpetrators of the Jaipur blasts have gone free and that peace with the Gujjars was bought at the expense of the law. Precious little has been heard of the outcome of the 30 day exercise Raje ordered to collect information on illegal Bangladeshi immigrants living in Rajasthan. And the fact that Rajasthan now has over 50% reservation, as do Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu, thus defying a Supreme Court directive, is not causing any clamour.

In this election year, the obvious question is whether Raje has found a politically expedient solution. A few weeks ago, the government had looked helpless in face of the Gujjar violence. This has certainly dented the image of the administration, there is bound to be a broad consensus among non Gujjars that the agitation left the government with little scope for reasoning. The most interesting part of Raje's solution is the 14% reservation she declared for the upper castes. This is a direct appeal to the BJP's core upper caste votebank, which feels left out in the cold in the relentless struggle to be classed "as more and more backward" among social groups. In its own warped manner, there is a certain fairness to a 14% upper caste quota: with the "general category" openings in government institutions shrinking to zero, it is only fair that upper castes should have some little ground to stand on. As such, upper caste reservation is no longer as counter-intuitive as it may seem at first glance. The Raje government pulled it out, much like a surprise gift. In the bitter, caste ridden society of Rajasthan, this might just energize the BJP's base. The major challenge, of course, is to implement this decision; it might be remembered that the erstwhile Gehlot government declared a similar 10% quota for Brahmins, but never took the idea seriously.

As for the Gujjars, their initial demand of ST status has not been met, but they have made it pretty good with a 5% bracket inside the OBC quota. The Gujjar leader Col. Bainsla has played his cards pretty well. His successful gambit was to enlist Congress support to scare the BJP, but he never let the Congress take over the movement. The colonel was in control at every stage of the agitation and the storm passed before the Congress could make up its mind over whether to cast its lot firmly with the angry Gujjars. It is likely that Bainsla has now won iconic status within his community, despite having led them down a path of bigotry and vandalism. When the crisis was finally over, he made sure he was polite and gracious to the chief minister, even projecting a certain bonhomie with the BJP, just so that in the months ahead, both parties would be vying for his support.

Sachin Pilot's evasive attitude might have cost the Congress. As Rajasthan burned, the Congress dragged its feet over the issue. Sachin Pilot blew hot and cold over the issue, first offering "moral support" and then shying away from leading the movement himself. This made it easy for Bainsla to stay in charge. Pilot's attitude probably stems from his desire to establish himself firmly at the helm of his party in the state. Five years ago, the Rani's parivartan yatra had galvanized BJP workers across Rajasthan and given the people an opportunity to connect with their Chief Minister. Like Pilot, who is one of Rahul Gandhi's band of followers, Vasundhara had also started merely as a favourite of her party high command, with little or no acceptance statewide. She earned her spurs in the 2003, campaigning in the heat and dust of the desert state. In contrast the Congress has made little progress and in fact, has hardly shown even a desire to drive the BJP from power. Although anti-incumbency is fairly reliable in India and the people of Rajasthan have a decent record on rotating their politics, it is unfair to suggest that the incumbency cycle will beat the BJP automatically. The elections of 1998 were held in an exceptional political climate. Those of 2003 involved a charismatic leader who connected instantly with the people, a severe drought that spread anger and disaffection among the people, together with a ruling Congress that seemed to have given up even before the election had begun. It is somehow easier to think of Rajasthan as a place where things change slowly; in order to seize power, the Congress must shake the establishment rather wildly. As of now, the typical issues that breed anti-incumbency, such as price rise and unemployment, have come to be identified more closely with the Congress than with the BJP. If the BJP has lost some prestige due to its apparent helplessness during the Gujjar agitation, the Congress led UPA has lost a lot more. And some in the Congress are still waiting for Rahul's magic to take effect.

Reservation is a disease. It has crippling effect on government institutions and other arms of the state. It poisons community relations, celebrates low achievement and discourages independent effort. It makes discrimination endemic to the system and undermines respect for the law; for principles of justice, fairness and equality. Upper caste reservation is its newest symptom. This monster takes many forms; some of them ridiculously illogical; think, for instance, of the "NRI quota" in the IITs that has now been scrapped. In the new century, the countless communities in India suffer from the weight of age old suspicions and superstitions; a kind of social debt accumulated over centuries. This debt must be paid out in full before we can make this century our own. Reservation is no way to pay off this social debt. One can only hope that democracy finds a solution on its own.

Is the UPA tottering to its fall?

Matters have come to a head for the ruling alliance in New Delhi. Four years of living with the stifling embrace of the Left is beginning to tell on the leaders of government. Thirteen stinging election defeats in the states have done nothing to improve morale. The famed "dream duo" of Dr. Singh and P. Chidambaram have managed to let inflation run wild. The unpalatable fact that despite its spectacular economic growth, India also has one of the highest fiscal deficits in the world, probably rankles in their minds. And with the nuclear deal stuck in the mire of party politics, the Prime Minister seems to be in a daze... what honest man wouldn't?

The BJP seems to be in its element. Advani has been touring the country, taunting the Congress for its weakness and trying to give the people a sense that the BJP is about to come roaring back to power. Advani refuses to concede that the Congress has done far better on the nuclear agreement and that the rise in food and fuel prices has largely been due to forces that are beyond the control of the government. In his mind, he is Arjuna, who is ready to send a shaft to sever the head of Radheya while the latter is engaged in lifting his chariot wheel out of the mud.

No one wants an election. Despite its bold positioning, it is the Left that realizes this the most. The Left is in for a decimation in Kerala and has been rattled by huge losses in the recently concluded round of Panchayat elections in their pocketborough of West Bengal. Secretary Karat knows that were elections to be held today, the people of India would not show any mercy to the Communists. Why then, does he keep digging the grave of this government. For one, political sabotage is what the Communists do best. He is also a victim of his own nature, the decades of strident anti-American propaganda pumped into his blood; the benediction of party elders such as Jyoti Basu and Harkishen Surjeet beckon him to protect the identity of the party over electoral interests. US troops have landed in India for joint military exercises; a US aircraft carrier has called at Chennai port and India is about to seal a nuclear alliance with the US. This keeps the Indian Communists awake at night.

Moreover, the Left has to confront the reality that, over the last four years, the Congress has, as a matter of fact, made very few concessions to the Communist Agenda. The economy has been opened far and wide, the promised employment guarantees have remained on paper and the government has refused to pick up the tab on fuel prices. In the days following May, 2004, the Left party leaders had told their cadre that they the new government would cater to their every whim ( a very public statement made by Jyoti Basu in Kolkata). That didn't happen: each time there was a crisis, the government parleyed with the Communists and the latter either gave in completely, or chose to pick up consolation prizes. For the Left and its 63 member contingent in the Lok Sabha; its highest ever; the dream has soured. And they are ready to drown the government in their bitter wrath and go back to the security of Bengal, Kerala and Tripura. Projecting power on a national stage is not to be, not for now.

The Congress is obviously dwelling on the possibility of dissolving the House and going in for fresh elections. Sonia Gandhi has told her party to ready itself for elections; but she is not sure what she can hope to achieve, except shuffling the political cards wildly for the moment. The prospect of the UPA achieving a majority of its own, or with the support of "like minded parties" such as the SP is too dim to consider seriously. The UPA would have to count on Left support to form any future government and that brings them back to square one. Since the nuclear deal has widespread urban public support, it is worthwhile to consider whether sacrificing the government over a matter of national interest might lead to some enhancement of prestige. But it is still likely that the nuclear deal is too remote to sway the poor and that the rancour over rising prices and inflation will drown the somewhat elite debate over India's nuclear ambitions. Besides, the Congress has to take the rest of the UPA along in its decision. Sadly, the other elements in the alliance are mostly headed by rustic leaders such as Laloo Yadav, who are, least of all, statesmen. They do not see the point in having to give up 9 months of comfortable lodging in the best part of New Delhi for some bomb making deal with "Amerika". With so many electoral reverses coming her way, the last thing Sonia ji wants is for the UPA allies to point fingers at the Congress.

As in 2004, however, there is no single national issue that will carry states across the board. The General Election of 2008 or 2009 will once again be a composite of state elections. Taken state by state, it is not really so dismal for Congress. Everything depends on which way the wind blows in the four major states going to polls in November. Should the Congress fail, they will be doomed. On the other hand, victories in these states would rev up the party machine and give the cadres a second lease of life. The Congress wants to make the most of the available anti-incumbency in these states, it does not want to tie these elections with a General Election.

For all its bluster, the BJP does not want fresh elections right now. Advani has been reviewing poll preparations in the states and there are many differences to be sorted out. The alliance with the SAD has reached a flashpoint and party units in Bihar and Maharashtra are deeply disgruntled. The BJP is barely done with the firefighting in Rajasthan and faces public disenchantment in Madhya Pradesh. Jharkhand has been neglected for far too long and there are no signs of life in all important Uttar Pradesh. The BJP is working not out of a sense of confidence, but a sense of urgency. When Advaniji offered an olive branch to Mayawati in Lucknow last week, it became apparent that he was jittery.

The build up to the next election is fraught with countless gimmicks, bluff and bluster, as always. But who knows, maybe the people of India, much like the people of Uttar Pradesh, will choose to vote for stability rather than create another political soup.

American Idol: The rise and rise of Obama

In capitals across the world, among friends and foes of America alike, an impression has gained ground in recent months: that a star has been born. Soon enough, Barack Obama, the man who has been filling arenas from the blue east coast to the conservative deep south of America and all the way to glitzy Los Angeles, could be the man the whole world has to deal with.

His advantages are obvious. His candidacy has in itself revolutionized the political arena. He is part African; has had a Muslim father; holds a Harvard law degree and is a devout Christian: things which, for the most part, do not go together in the American consciousness. At a time when the American people have been driven to (premature) despair, Obama had little trouble finding people to jump on to his bandwagon of "change".

Barack Obama is a brilliant man. In an election year wherein most Americans were looking back fondly to the Clinton years of plenty, Obama outplayed the Clintons at every stage of the game. He teamed up with John Edwards in early November to launch an offensive on Hillary, each time choosing to hold himself back just enough to give the impression of being the "conscientious dissenter" from her opinions and letting Edwards look like the nasty guy who was being mean to a woman. Once Clinton lost her aura of invincibility, Obama's scorched earth policy in Iowa won the day. All the way upto "Super Tuesday" aka Feb 5, when 22 states held primaries simultaneously, Hillary kept looking for the knockout punch to throw Obama out of the race, while the latter focused on arithmetic; the fact that winning all the smaller states would negate Hillary's lead in the big ones. In effect, Obama realized that while the US Presidential campaign is hardly about every state in the union, securing a party nomination can be about all 50 states. Obama won nearly all the caucus states as well as the Texas Caucus; a feat which utilized his superb campaign organization to the hilt.

Brilliant men can also be dangerous. From the very beginning, Obama chose to position his rhetoric midway between the shrill anti-Bush screams from the Left and Hillary's level headed approach that utilized facts and proposals. Obama chose to speak in open ended sentences; caring only to sketch his ideas for the benefit of his "fans". He stays away from important Senate votes, such as the one on Iran's revolutionary guard and promises to "talk" to the Iranians, if elected. In agreeing to "talk", he appeals to the basic sense of fairness of his people, but refuses to provide more detail, since the American people might not want to hear how he would indulge in "give and take" with a rogue nation. He doesn't promise to "solve" problems, but instead promises to make them "go away". That is what the American people want to hear; they want to hear that they can escape to some parallel universe where it can be 1946 all over again, with the US placed ahead of the world in everything. Unfortunately, there are hardly any solutions to the geopolitical and economic crisis that looms large on America's future and those solutions are certainly not easy, even if they exist. Barack has managed to sell a pipe dream as a "vision" and in doing so he has enlisted legions of younger and first time voters. Young people always want to "save the world" and when it is so easy to save the world as to vote for Obama, it becomes the fashion... the rage, like the latest pop album number. That apart, Americans are addicted to religion and Obama has played this no end. It is circulated that Obama finds time for Bible Study on his campaign plane and oftentimes, he goes down on his knees to speak to God. Despite these cheesy details, Obama refuses to wear a US flagpin on his lapel, ostensibly to show that he believes in solutions and not in symbols. The fact that a publicly announced departure from a somewhat standard mode of dressing for US politicians is in itself a grand symbol seems to have escaped most people.

Hillary's basic scheme was to play to the gallery and win friends by promising them the stuff they said they wanted. Obama extended the idea; he promised some of the stuff they asked for and convinced them they did not really need the rest. For Obama's fans, he is not the man who gives them what they want, but a genuine prophet who also knows what is best for them.

On the world stage, Obama comes across as a sort of mystery. If elected, he is likely to remain so. It is improbable that he will address foreign policy issues other than those which elicit immediate reactions at home. Obama is the kind of person who would like to make grand gestures; it is even possible he will reach out to Cuba. Policy issues such as US' relations with the EU, the proximity of Russia and Israel, the ascension of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the expansion of NATO into Eastern Europe; will probably stay in the background. Closer home, Obama is likely to stick to the cliched bogey of non proliferation and lack enthusiasm over the nuclear deal. In the long run, this should not be much of a problem, since the US offer seems to get better every day (think of how the deal that Jaswant Singh was negotiating with Strobe Talbot compares to the one that is currently on offer); what is to say that the next decade might not bring a dream deal to the table; especially since an alliance with India is becoming a more and more pressing policy imperative with each passing year.

And here is a final thought that I have always wanted to share: As part of an obvious political gimmick, there is a race among US politicians to blame the "Big Corporates" for everything. The slogan is that these "Big Corporates" must be cut down to size, since the horrible things that are happening to the middle class on the housing and health front "shouldn't be happening to Americans". That argument is a travesty: The middle class did not build America; the big corporates, the military, the industry, the scientists and innovators did. That is what made America No. 1. The American middle class was only lucky enough to find itself in the midst of these outstanding people. And if Americans really believe in individual success, they should focus on distinguishing themselves rather than hoping for government freebies.

And it did explode .... Gujjar violence in Rajasthan

The Rani's cup of woes is full. The state of Rajasthan had scarcely managed to catch its breath after the horrors of the Jaipur blasts, than the Gujjar violence began to sweep the state. And for the last three weeks, a group of marauders have had the nerve of the northwest by the scruff of the neck.

One cannot deny that the extent to which the Gujjar community has been mobilized is rather striking. This overrides the initial temptation to dismiss the agitation as a rag tag attempt by a motley group of miscreants. The violence, which, by virtue of its sheer scale, deserves to be called a "movement", was started very deliberately on May 23. A policeman was lynched in Bharatpur district, spurring the local police into action; thereafter the government forces had their fingers on the trigger. The Gujjars counted some 30 dead; enough to provoke an emotional response throughout the community. From the nerve centre of Bayana, the Gujjar protests spread far and wide; blocking arterial roads and railway trunk routes. In a startling display of poor taste, the dead were lined up beside the blocked roads and funerals were turned into political rallies.

Although the violence has been fairly well coordinated, the leadership of the movement has not. Initially, Col. Bhaisla, the self appointed mukhiya; demanded that talks with the State Govt. be held only in Bayana. At the same time, one of his top aides, Dr. Roop Singh, went to Jaipur and started parleying with the Chief Minister's appointees. Bhaisla rejected those talks and stuck to his guns. A clutch of other self styled leaders even demanded Vasundhara's resignation before they came to talks. The principal failure of the Rajasthan Government was that it could not exploit these divisions to its benefit.

Vasundhara Raje is also guilty of sitting on the Gujjar issue so far. A year ago, when the demand first surfaced in a violent manner, her government seemed paralyzed; and the administration lost control so quickly that the police had to open fire, killing several protesters. From that point, the government knew that there was no going back. Yet, it offered a hollow sounding "economic package" to the Gujjar dominated areas and hoped that it would just go away. This underscores the attitude of the Chief Minister, who still seems to have some of her "royal temper". Five years ago, the Rani won millions of hearts by touring the state on foot. But, ever since, the people have never heard from her. And when the Gujjars started their violence on May 23 this year, the government, no wiser from the events of 2007; walked right into the trap yet again. This time they had no excuse.

When the agitating Gujjars came to their door, the government waved the Chopra Commission report in their face. In doing so, they were, both literally and figuratively trying to keep out fire with a shield of paper. The sorry fact is that some officials in the administration, including perhaps the Chief Minister herself, thought it would work. The govt then turned to the Centre and for a short while, that seemed to relieve the BJP somewhat. The Gujjars diverted their attention from Jaipur to Delhi. But it was clear that this was at best, a short term tactic. The Centre kicked the issue right back to the state and things were back to square one. There is now talk of the Gujjars being granted "Notified Tribe" (NT) status. If there was a way out, the government should really have thought of this sooner.

The role of the Congress, and more precisely, that of Sachin Pilot, has been deeper and more insidious. Throughout the agitation, Pilot has chosen to stay in the background, trying to act innocent; almost a statesman! His objectives are twofold: one, to destabilize the state before the winter elections and two; to establish himself as frontrunner for Chief Minister, should the Congress come to power. The agitation did spread to New Delhi for a day, but the Congress ruled Capital never really faced the full brunt of the protests and the protesters withdrew, somewhat mysteriously, to Rajasthan, without so much as a promise or an appeal from the Centre. Although a fairly decent case can be made for the Centre having to play an equal and possibly even a preeminent role regarding the issue of reservations, which are capped at 50% by a Supreme Court directive, the Gujjars never confronted the Congress with this demand. This is strange, since the Central Government is now handing out candy to everyone. An even more striking feature is that the protests have had an air of personal grievance against the Chief Minister; at one point, the Gujjars even threatened to blow up the Rani's palace! This brings into question whether the violence is spurred by a demand for reservation, or a shadow tactic to indict the BJP.

The Oracle opines that fueling the Gujjar violence may not be such a smart political tactic after all. For a start, Gujjars form a mere 5% of the electorate. The community has never been a BJP base, in fact there are only about 5 Gujjars in the BJP's contingent of 120 MLAs. The scale of violence is bound to alienate other caste groups and create some sympathy for the beleaguered Chief Minister. Those other groups are expected to become even more hostile to the demand for Gujjar reservation and the parties that support it. In fact, if the Gujjar issue dominates the election instead of familiar anti-incumbency, the BJP will win. This is one reason the Congress has chosen to keep its role under wraps so far, refusing to openly come out in support of the Gujjar demand.

Finally, there are three things we should take note of:

1. The Gujjar movement has created a new paradigm for political protests in India. This is sectarian violence at its worst. What is to say that tomorrow the TRS, or Raj Thackeray's people will not adopt a similar tactic? That is one reason why the Gujjars, whenever they are pacified, should not be seen as having succeeded by "helping themselves through direct action". It would set a fairly dangerous precedent.

2. A larger question is why, at a time of massive all round economic growth; a government job is still "a life and death issue" for so many people. A clamour for reservation is a symptom of acute hopelessness, a time of scarcity, when its every man (or rather, every community) for himself.

3. And finally, this isn't China! The fatalities incurred during the initial Gujjar protests prove that our police need more access to rubber/plastic bullets rather than mortal ammunition. And they also need more training in crowd control tactics. It must be clear that opening fire on a group of civilians, peaceful or otherwise, is simply unacceptable. There are ways and means by which better organized government forces can prevail upon a bunch of violent protesters, who are bound to lack coordination and discipline. It is high time our law enforcement agencies were tutored in those civilized ways.