Is the UPA tottering to its fall?

Matters have come to a head for the ruling alliance in New Delhi. Four years of living with the stifling embrace of the Left is beginning to tell on the leaders of government. Thirteen stinging election defeats in the states have done nothing to improve morale. The famed "dream duo" of Dr. Singh and P. Chidambaram have managed to let inflation run wild. The unpalatable fact that despite its spectacular economic growth, India also has one of the highest fiscal deficits in the world, probably rankles in their minds. And with the nuclear deal stuck in the mire of party politics, the Prime Minister seems to be in a daze... what honest man wouldn't?

The BJP seems to be in its element. Advani has been touring the country, taunting the Congress for its weakness and trying to give the people a sense that the BJP is about to come roaring back to power. Advani refuses to concede that the Congress has done far better on the nuclear agreement and that the rise in food and fuel prices has largely been due to forces that are beyond the control of the government. In his mind, he is Arjuna, who is ready to send a shaft to sever the head of Radheya while the latter is engaged in lifting his chariot wheel out of the mud.

No one wants an election. Despite its bold positioning, it is the Left that realizes this the most. The Left is in for a decimation in Kerala and has been rattled by huge losses in the recently concluded round of Panchayat elections in their pocketborough of West Bengal. Secretary Karat knows that were elections to be held today, the people of India would not show any mercy to the Communists. Why then, does he keep digging the grave of this government. For one, political sabotage is what the Communists do best. He is also a victim of his own nature, the decades of strident anti-American propaganda pumped into his blood; the benediction of party elders such as Jyoti Basu and Harkishen Surjeet beckon him to protect the identity of the party over electoral interests. US troops have landed in India for joint military exercises; a US aircraft carrier has called at Chennai port and India is about to seal a nuclear alliance with the US. This keeps the Indian Communists awake at night.

Moreover, the Left has to confront the reality that, over the last four years, the Congress has, as a matter of fact, made very few concessions to the Communist Agenda. The economy has been opened far and wide, the promised employment guarantees have remained on paper and the government has refused to pick up the tab on fuel prices. In the days following May, 2004, the Left party leaders had told their cadre that they the new government would cater to their every whim ( a very public statement made by Jyoti Basu in Kolkata). That didn't happen: each time there was a crisis, the government parleyed with the Communists and the latter either gave in completely, or chose to pick up consolation prizes. For the Left and its 63 member contingent in the Lok Sabha; its highest ever; the dream has soured. And they are ready to drown the government in their bitter wrath and go back to the security of Bengal, Kerala and Tripura. Projecting power on a national stage is not to be, not for now.

The Congress is obviously dwelling on the possibility of dissolving the House and going in for fresh elections. Sonia Gandhi has told her party to ready itself for elections; but she is not sure what she can hope to achieve, except shuffling the political cards wildly for the moment. The prospect of the UPA achieving a majority of its own, or with the support of "like minded parties" such as the SP is too dim to consider seriously. The UPA would have to count on Left support to form any future government and that brings them back to square one. Since the nuclear deal has widespread urban public support, it is worthwhile to consider whether sacrificing the government over a matter of national interest might lead to some enhancement of prestige. But it is still likely that the nuclear deal is too remote to sway the poor and that the rancour over rising prices and inflation will drown the somewhat elite debate over India's nuclear ambitions. Besides, the Congress has to take the rest of the UPA along in its decision. Sadly, the other elements in the alliance are mostly headed by rustic leaders such as Laloo Yadav, who are, least of all, statesmen. They do not see the point in having to give up 9 months of comfortable lodging in the best part of New Delhi for some bomb making deal with "Amerika". With so many electoral reverses coming her way, the last thing Sonia ji wants is for the UPA allies to point fingers at the Congress.

As in 2004, however, there is no single national issue that will carry states across the board. The General Election of 2008 or 2009 will once again be a composite of state elections. Taken state by state, it is not really so dismal for Congress. Everything depends on which way the wind blows in the four major states going to polls in November. Should the Congress fail, they will be doomed. On the other hand, victories in these states would rev up the party machine and give the cadres a second lease of life. The Congress wants to make the most of the available anti-incumbency in these states, it does not want to tie these elections with a General Election.

For all its bluster, the BJP does not want fresh elections right now. Advani has been reviewing poll preparations in the states and there are many differences to be sorted out. The alliance with the SAD has reached a flashpoint and party units in Bihar and Maharashtra are deeply disgruntled. The BJP is barely done with the firefighting in Rajasthan and faces public disenchantment in Madhya Pradesh. Jharkhand has been neglected for far too long and there are no signs of life in all important Uttar Pradesh. The BJP is working not out of a sense of confidence, but a sense of urgency. When Advaniji offered an olive branch to Mayawati in Lucknow last week, it became apparent that he was jittery.

The build up to the next election is fraught with countless gimmicks, bluff and bluster, as always. But who knows, maybe the people of India, much like the people of Uttar Pradesh, will choose to vote for stability rather than create another political soup.