Pakistan in flames; India wary of the smoke-I

The picture says a thousand words. A lone Pakistani soldier stands with his assault rifle; guarding the flaming ruins. He looks alert and holds his rifle straight. His lifeless nation stretched out behind him, the lone soldier looks like the loyal dog guarding his dead master.

In the last sixty years, a fertile land that was once an organ of the Hind, has been prised out of the body of the mother country and its veins poisoned by a hate filled religion. As Pakistan is slain by its own children, the question is: should we care?

The temptation to let Pakistan stew in its own juices is quite strong. The nation that boasted of strategy to bleed India "with a thousand cuts" has slit its own throat. Revenge rarely gets sweeter than this. It was "they" who wanted to cooperate with the British. Then, it was "they" who wanted a separate electorate. Then, it was "they" who wanted a separate state. Then, "they" went for "Direct Action". It was "they" who named it "Pakistan", i.e. "land of the pure". It was "they" who were not content with their portion and wanted to have more of ours. It was "they" who decided to change their secular constitution in 1973 to adopt hatred as the state religion. As we say:

Karma: It's only a bitch if you are a jerk.

However, even as Pakistan hangs lifeless at the end of a noose, we have to care. Should one care about an enemy? Perhaps not. But then, one must make an exemption for the dead.

Before we get into the details of how India should engage in the South Asian diplomatic tangle, we need to address this moral dilemma over the situation in Pakistan. Is it fitting on our part to celebrate? Lives are being lost in Pakistan; innocent men and women and children are being mowed down by the dozen. Should India act merely out of apprehensions over the fallout of the situation, or out of a human interest in the tragedies that are being wrought on Pakistan by its own?

So, let us put it out there in the open. Pakistan's demise is a moral victory for India. It validates our nation, our constitution and our government. There is no shame in acknowledging the fact that our democratic institutions have brought us to the verge of becoming a world power and Pakistan's spectacular failure underscores the enormity of what our nation has achieved. Indians have no reason to be coy about India's achievements. In fact, it is precisely this reticence to acknowledge our own greatness that India gets a bad rap from so many quarters. It is all so often that India is accused of having scant respect for human rights, upwardly mobile enterprising Indians are cast as unsympathetic to the "plight of their brethren", those who express any measure of optimism in the rising economic, military and diplomatic clout of India are sneered at as ignorant and ill-informed. India's image is held back by stereotypes; stereotypes once created by the British and embraced by the West. And Indians have done little towards dispensing with these stereotypes; instead naysayers are held in high esteem as elites and intellectuals. In this respect, a big thank you must go out to the Tibetian community in exile in India, who recently decided to dedicate a whole year towards celebrating what India has done for them; finally there is someone who wants to gratefully acknowledge what is one of the freest nations in the world.

It is striking that while Muslims who left India behind at the time of partition to seek the glory of their faith in the "land of the pure" are still derided as beggars in Pakistan, the Sindhis, Sikhs and Hindus from Lahore, Bengalis from East Pakistan have all been embraced as one blood in India. Therefore, in this hour of Pakistan's failure, no Indian who wishes to dance in the streets should be made to feel ashamed.

The Oracle's point is not to say that Indians should drown themselves in jingoism and euphoria over the death of our mortal enemy. It is only to suggest that no Indian who wishes to celebrate should be made to give in to the bullying of liberal intellectuals who may well be in denial over the achievements of India and/or unable to fit in India's success into their world-view and who are not above using scare tactics to keep Indians from celebrating this victory. Let's say it: India's powerful democratic institutions, huge military and thriving economy are strong guarantees against the advance of Islamic fascism.

(to be contd. in Part-II)

Tired losers form "Third Front"

For those of us who remember, there was once an alliance called the NFLF: "National Front-Left Front". That evolved into the United Front and the latter evolved into the People's Front which evolved into the United National Progressive Alliance. This time, they did not want to bother with having to decide on a name; so they are just calling it the Third Front!

So, what is common to all these "Fronts"? The Left, for one, has been part of all of them (barring a technicality, i.e., the Left formally stayed out of the United Front once the UF government accepted Congress support). Are these "Fronts" merely transitional forms on the path to the extinction of the Left as a political force in India? Political evolution has already condemned the Left to the dustbins of history and that is exactly where they are headed.

Wait! One might be tempted to point out that the "Third Front" may well hold the key to forming the government in New Delhi, deciding the Prime Minister and even the successor to President Pratibha Patil (Heavens no! she still has three more years to embarrass our country!). But what would that achieve? The Left has already relegated itself to the reduced stature of being a regional party by joining the Third Front. The Left has already compromised its reputation of being stoutly opposed to corruption and caste by allying with the worst scum in Indian politics... from Laloo, Mulayam and Paswan to Jayalalitha and Mayawati. The Left's boast of being a disciplined, monolithic, cadre based organization has suffered irrevocable harm due to the events in Kerala. For the party of the Communists, it is a moment of truth, a time to face up before the people for their anti-national pronouncements over the last sixty years. And they are smiling foolishly as they walk the road to oblivion with hell in a handbasket.

So, what is the future of the "Third Front". If Parliament is hamstrung in a horrible manner, the "Front" will press for a repeat of 1996 and there is a slight possibility that they might achieve it. The Congress, for its part, has learned from its mistakes and is very unlikely to offer the Prime Ministerial position to someone else. The BJP and NDA have already gone to town for far too long with the candidature of Lal Krishna Advani and they are not likely to back down now. Also, other NDA leaders such as Sharad Yadav, who may be more "acceptable" than Advani are all weighed down by powerful regional leaders and are therefore unlikely to get the go ahead towards becoming Prime Minister from their own parties. We should mention here that the "Maratha PM" dream will require a coalition all too queer to come into being. Even so, the possibility of a Third Front PM should not be discarded entirely. If only as a thought experiment, let us consider the Third Front PM candidates.

There's Mayawati, of course. She has been rearing to become Prime Minister. Unfortunate though it is for our country, Maya is the only one who has something of a chance. Since her party puts Maya's Prime Ministerial ambitions as the prime point on its agenda, and indeed, the only point, bargaining with Mayawati is both easy and difficult. If one of the two sides can leave its ego aside and accept Mayawati as PM, there will be nothing else she will require of them. Mayawati's big advantage is that most of the Third Front losers will support her in a heartbeat and so will the Congress' alliance partners. In fact, the only one who would suffer heartburn would be Ram Vilas Paswan, who cannot muster the numerical might to throw a spanner into the works. Moreover, Mayawati has a way of getting things done, of producing major thrusts and her single minded ambition to become PM might stand her in good stead.

Then, there is Mayawati's arch rival: Mulayam Singh Yadav. Such is the pathetic state of ideological confusion within the Third Front and indeed the boudaries of the UPA that any or both of these rival leaders may turn out to be part of the ruling coalition post election. Mulayam Singh knows, however, that his moment has passed. If there was one, it was when he had peaked to a solid tally of 37 MPs from Uttar Pradesh in 2004; and as a thumb rule, anyone who suffers a loss of seats in the ensuing election will be out of running for the Prime Ministership.

Jayalalitha is an intriguing figure in this election. Just how many seats she will pick up is anyone's guess. The question of whether Jayalalitha is seriously considering a Prime Ministerial bid is even more significant. The Dravidian parties have traditionally had a tendency to stay slightly aloof from the government in New Delhi, but there is a possibility that a "Tamil PM" might prove to be a unifying issue. As such, a more "colourless" Tamil leader, such as one from the MDMK or the PMK might emerge as a winner. Sivaganga MP and Home Minister P. Chidambaram, who was a runaway best performer in the UPA government should have been a good choice under these circumstances (and a great choice for the country as well) , but the Congress is in no mood to advance anyone other than Dr. Singh (except Rahul, of course).

One man who should never be counted out is Chandrababu Naidu. For one, Chandrababu would make a fairly good Prime Minister. Although many will disagree with his vision and his approach to development is often facile, Naidu does not lack good intentions. That, in itself, places him way ahead of leaders of many other regional parties. Naidu's one major impact on the national scene, i.e. the elevation of Dr. Kalam to the highest office, is remembered with pride and gratitude by most Indians. Of late, however, Naidu has been wallowing far too low in the filth, allying with the Left, with K Chandrasekhar Rao and sundry others. The Oracle would like to believe he is the same Chandrababu of old. But, perhaps, that is not to be.

BJP's balance sheet of allies

Those of us with even moderate political foresight have known for some time that the Congress has been living in a fool's paradise. Now that the parties that used to be in the somewhat optimistically named "United" Progressive Alliance have all decided to go their merry way, suddenly the BJP's balance sheet does not look so bad.

The NDA's core has, of course, come down to just 3 parties other than the BJP: the Shiv Sena, the SAD and the JD(U). The BJD used to be a core member until it decided to overreach itself. Fortunately for the BJP, the BJD does not have much of a choice once the elections are over. The prodigal son of the NDA will have little recourse than to troop back to base camp soon enough.

It would be more than just a stretch to imagine that these five parties (including the BJD) can muster a majority on their own in the House. The BJP, however, has no reason to despair, since all that the NDA needs to do is finish ahead of the "UPA", whatever form the latter alliance might have at that moment. The key is to clearly demonstrate that the "UPA" has lost the popular mandate, if it ever had one. If that is achieved, it will not be very difficult to get fencesitters, many of them estranged friends to support and/or join the NDA. These "fencesitters" have made things more efficient by putting themselves up for sale on a single unified forum the Left likes to call the "Third Front". Post election, a winning NDA can offer great careers to these unemployed former Chief Ministers.

The NDA has a lot of estranged friends. Some have faded into oblivion. Some are fighting for life. Some others are actually doing well. Some would want back in, but have drifted too far to do a volte face. The AGP, the INLD and the RLD belong to the second category and all three have done the smart thing by joining hands with the BJP. The Congress is sitting on two remarkable performances in both Asom and Haryana that would be hard pressed to repeat. In western Uttar Pradesh, Ajit Singh's RLD might give a much needed boost to the BJP's demoralized and depreciating rank and file.

What about others? First, the funny ones: like the National Conference and the Lok Janshakti Party. A father and son Muslim party like the National Conference should never have allied with the BJP in the first place. They have faced up to their embarrassment and are now busy ruling their ancestral land, with help from the royal family in Delhi. Good for them.

Ah... Paswan of course. Why is it that Paswan gets tricked into joining some alliance or another each time elections take place? He was with the NDA until 2002, then with Laloo in 2004 and then claimed to be Laloo's biggest challenger in 2005! He made a fool of himself every single time. His latest gambit is to ally with the RJD he had sworn to uproot from Bihar. Let's see how long that lasts before Paswan finds an excuse to join the winning alliance.

Things are more interesting for the BJP down south. In Andhra Pradesh, the TDP and the TRS have actually tied up, although few could have predicted this five years ago. The BJP has been putting in a lot of money and energy in the state and any meaningful gains there will help the party to attract, for instance, the TRS into the NDA fold. In fact, now that the TDP and TRS are together, it should be possible to bring the TDP in tow if needed. Chandrababu Naidu has been cozy with the Left for far too long. Out of a sense of denial, Chandrababu wants to believe that the drubbing he received in 2004 was due to his BJP ties. Instead of blaming himself and his outlandish governance schemes that he liked to refer to as his "vision", his blatant inability to stem the tide of Naxalism, Naidu still believes that the BJP weighed him down in the 2004 election. Fortunately, the worst is over for him. The electorate might not have switched sides entirely, but people are beginning to consider him again. His promise of providing social security to the poorest of the poor might also help in reviving his fortunes. If the NDA agrees to make a few cosmetic concessions to the state of Andhra Pradesh, it will not be too difficult to have Naidu back in the BJP camp.

Then there is the AIADMK, which knows that it is carrying the momentum of the election in Tamil Nadu. It is not for nothing that the PMK switched sides in such a dramatic manner of late. State elections in Tamil Nadu are far away and Jayalalitha would want a foothold at the Centre. The Congress has invested a little too much into its alliance with the DMK to be in a position to take AIADMK support. In any case, it is impossible for the Congress to take in Jayalalitha without immediately losing DMK. The NDA has a vacancy it should look to fill right there.

The role and purpose of the NCP in Indian politics has always been somewhat of a question mark. Initially, it was Congress strongman Sharad Pawar's ego that drove the party. However, with passage of time, the NCP has evolved more and more of a state level personality as opposed to the wishes of Pawar Sahib who has always wanted a more pan-Indian presence. The NCP's proximity to the Shiv Sena has been a source of both consternation and consolation for the BJP. The personal equation between Balasaheb and Pawar Sahib has kept both the BJP and Congress on tenterhooks. Even so, it is far too speculative to imagine the NCP joining the NDA camp after elections.... not yet...maybe in a post Pawar era....

Whether the BJP can get Mamata Banerjee back depends on how well the TMC does in Bengal with Congress support. If Mamata is able to deal a body blow to the CPI(M), as she probably will, she will try her best to keep the Congress with her. This can change only if the Congress has to take Left support in order to form a government. Mamata Banerjee has defined her politics by her opposition to Left Front hegemony. And even though nothing, not even joint Congress - Left -TMC support for a Central Government can dent that image, leave it to this highly emotional politician to freak out over the ethics of having a "semi-alliance" with the Left at the Centre.

That leaves Mayawati and Mulayam Singh, the two worst politicians in the country. For the NDA, Mayawati is the more "natural" ally. Maulana Mulayam, the one who ordered the shooting of VHP workers, has few bridges to the BJP. However, the extreme bitterness between the Samajwadi Party and the Congress, the propensity of the Samajwadis to justify just about any alliance as well as their desire to have as many anti-Mayawati forces together as possible, suggests that the NDA can have some sort of "arrangement" with the SP. For its part, the SP wants the Congress to act as a subservient doormat in UP the way the latter typically submits to Laloo (not this time!!) in Bihar. The Congress, on the other hand, cannot get over the fact that the SP treats the Gandhi family as though they are nothing special...just flesh and blood like everyone else. Perhaps Mulayam Singh's dislike of dynasties has roots in the fact that his own political guru Charan Singh passed him up to give preference to his son Ajit long ago. Advani practises politics as the art of the possible. Should the opportunity present itself, he will not make light of it.

Pressure group building within UPA

In a striking anticlimax, the coming of elections has been heralded by a string of betrayals, snapping of alliances and breaking of promises. It is almost as if our politicians can't seem to wait until after the election is over.

Given that the UPA, a post poll alliance (lest we forget!) from 2004 has not contested any elections as a united force, there is small surprise that the formation is in disarray a month before the polls begin. The Congress Party has been in firefighting mode, striving to preserve some semblance of dignity in the seat sharing arrangements it has to work out in state after state.

The Congress' problems stem from the fact that it is a spent force in almost all states where it has alliances and is locally dependent on its regional allies (such as SP, JMM, RJD) to a much larger extent than the BJP is. Ten long years of ineffective government by the Congress has weakened the party's position in Maharasthra vis-a-vis the NCP, which has an axe all of its own to grind. The Congress is in a very difficult situation in Mumbai, Konkan and has lost a lot of ground in Vidarbha and Marathwada regions. The NCP has always maintained a slight distance from the Congress and as a result, the Congress Party is completely cornered in Maharashtra. As for Tamil Nadu, it seems clear that Jayalalitha has the initiative and whatever remains will go in favour of the Congress' Dravidian ally. Although the DMK's overall position has weakened, it is in a much stronger position to bargain with the Congress. In Andhra Pradesh, the Congress can only lose seats, though probably not too many. Similarly, the Congress will lose seats in Delhi, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and is likely to be pushed to the wall in Gujarat and Karnataka. Even though Rajasthan will probably offset some of the losses and they will make minor gains in Madhya Pradesh, this is not enough to make up for the difference. The party is facing disaster in UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa, Chhattisgarh and there might be surprises in Assam. As a result, the allies realize that it is the perfect time to rub the Congress nose on the ground.

Consequently, the UPA allies have not only asked the Congress to accept less than 5-6 seats in most states, but they have also decided to challenge the claim of their "Big Brother" to the post of Prime Minister. Sharad Pawar and Ram Vilas Paswan have openly expressed their desire to be Prime Minister and for Laloo Yadav, the claim that he will be "Prime Minister one day" has been a continuing refrain over the years. Of these, Sharad Pawar is the only one who is dead serious about his desire to be Prime Minister. A first sign that the Congress has been scared by its allies is Pranab Mukherjee's recent statement that the UPA need not project a Prime Minister at all. Lest we forget, Pranab Mukherjee nurses an old wound over the issue of Prime Ministership; Pranab da circulated his CV among the Congress leadership after Indira Gandhi's death to stake claim to the highest office, but was reprimanded for imagining that he could become Prime Minister while an able bodied, adult Gandhi family descendant was still alive. This blemish of thoughtcrime has since stayed with him and in 2004, the choice fell on Manmohan Singh, a man whose record of loyalty to the Gandhi family was as spotless as his white kurta.

Unfortunately for the Congress, its list of current allies includes the Samajwadi Party and the latter commands the skills of Amar Singh, who is the foremost practitioner of realpolitik in the country today. The crafty Thakur who can make alliances literally appear out of thin air and strike fantastic deals you never thought possible; is capable of slitting the Congress' throat with surgical precision. The fact that Amar Singh has met Sharad Pawar in person, following which Pawar saab has made his Prime Ministerial ambitions public, should raise a lot of eyebrows. In classic Amar Singh style, Pawar's talk about a "Maharashtrian PM" has made the Shiv Sena sit up and listen. Sharad Pawar, a man grappling with cancer, does not have much to lose. Amar Singh realizes that; and the SP has a great personal rapport with Laloo Yadav. The fact that the SP is Mayawati's principal challenger makes Paswan a natural ally for Mulayam Singh Yadav, while events in Sri Lanka have pushed the DMK to move away from the Central government; it could hardly get any worse for Congress. Most of the Congress' allies are on highly cordial terms with the Left Parties and by extension, the so called "Third Front".

What does this mean for India? It follows that should the UPA finish ahead of NDA, it will still have to bridge a yawning chasm of at least 70 seats to get to the majority mark and one of the concessions the allies will demand is the giving up of the post of Prime Minister. In fact, the Left Front, which is one of the gluing forces in the "Third Front" will find it impossible to support a Congress Prime Minister after the drubbing it will likely receive at the hands of the TMC-Congress alliance in West Bengal. In fact, should such a situation arise, the Congress might be confronted with a fait accompli over the formation of a "secular government". If the Congress refuses to swallow its pride at such a point, the BJP, which will get the BJD back on its side in a flash after the polls, might be able to put the numbers together, by attracting say Jayalalitha, Mayawati and others. In such a scenario, the "blame" for letting the "communal BJP" have its way will fall on the Congress.

Rahul Gandhi has succeeded to the Congress leadership at a difficult time. The party organisation is in bad shape and alliances have weakened the party beyond recovery in several states. The party of his fathers seems oddly bereft of inspiring leaders and if only clean image were everything in politics, S M Krishna would have been in power much longer than Rabri Devi did. There is some urban sympathy over the persona of Dr. Singh, but if only that were enough, Atal ji would have never been shoved out in 2004. And now, given that there is uncertainty over the leadership of Dr. Singh, this positive might wither away. Rahul Gandhi, with the weight of his hundred year old dynasty on his shoulders, is older than Advani in practical terms. Young India has not fallen for Rahul's unintelligent antics and Priyanka Gandhi's possibilities have been let go waste, possibly because her children might not carry the Gandhi surname. The Congress needs to dictate some terms, but it seems that, for now, the "allies" are the people doing all the talking.