Tired losers form "Third Front"

For those of us who remember, there was once an alliance called the NFLF: "National Front-Left Front". That evolved into the United Front and the latter evolved into the People's Front which evolved into the United National Progressive Alliance. This time, they did not want to bother with having to decide on a name; so they are just calling it the Third Front!

So, what is common to all these "Fronts"? The Left, for one, has been part of all of them (barring a technicality, i.e., the Left formally stayed out of the United Front once the UF government accepted Congress support). Are these "Fronts" merely transitional forms on the path to the extinction of the Left as a political force in India? Political evolution has already condemned the Left to the dustbins of history and that is exactly where they are headed.

Wait! One might be tempted to point out that the "Third Front" may well hold the key to forming the government in New Delhi, deciding the Prime Minister and even the successor to President Pratibha Patil (Heavens no! she still has three more years to embarrass our country!). But what would that achieve? The Left has already relegated itself to the reduced stature of being a regional party by joining the Third Front. The Left has already compromised its reputation of being stoutly opposed to corruption and caste by allying with the worst scum in Indian politics... from Laloo, Mulayam and Paswan to Jayalalitha and Mayawati. The Left's boast of being a disciplined, monolithic, cadre based organization has suffered irrevocable harm due to the events in Kerala. For the party of the Communists, it is a moment of truth, a time to face up before the people for their anti-national pronouncements over the last sixty years. And they are smiling foolishly as they walk the road to oblivion with hell in a handbasket.

So, what is the future of the "Third Front". If Parliament is hamstrung in a horrible manner, the "Front" will press for a repeat of 1996 and there is a slight possibility that they might achieve it. The Congress, for its part, has learned from its mistakes and is very unlikely to offer the Prime Ministerial position to someone else. The BJP and NDA have already gone to town for far too long with the candidature of Lal Krishna Advani and they are not likely to back down now. Also, other NDA leaders such as Sharad Yadav, who may be more "acceptable" than Advani are all weighed down by powerful regional leaders and are therefore unlikely to get the go ahead towards becoming Prime Minister from their own parties. We should mention here that the "Maratha PM" dream will require a coalition all too queer to come into being. Even so, the possibility of a Third Front PM should not be discarded entirely. If only as a thought experiment, let us consider the Third Front PM candidates.

There's Mayawati, of course. She has been rearing to become Prime Minister. Unfortunate though it is for our country, Maya is the only one who has something of a chance. Since her party puts Maya's Prime Ministerial ambitions as the prime point on its agenda, and indeed, the only point, bargaining with Mayawati is both easy and difficult. If one of the two sides can leave its ego aside and accept Mayawati as PM, there will be nothing else she will require of them. Mayawati's big advantage is that most of the Third Front losers will support her in a heartbeat and so will the Congress' alliance partners. In fact, the only one who would suffer heartburn would be Ram Vilas Paswan, who cannot muster the numerical might to throw a spanner into the works. Moreover, Mayawati has a way of getting things done, of producing major thrusts and her single minded ambition to become PM might stand her in good stead.

Then, there is Mayawati's arch rival: Mulayam Singh Yadav. Such is the pathetic state of ideological confusion within the Third Front and indeed the boudaries of the UPA that any or both of these rival leaders may turn out to be part of the ruling coalition post election. Mulayam Singh knows, however, that his moment has passed. If there was one, it was when he had peaked to a solid tally of 37 MPs from Uttar Pradesh in 2004; and as a thumb rule, anyone who suffers a loss of seats in the ensuing election will be out of running for the Prime Ministership.

Jayalalitha is an intriguing figure in this election. Just how many seats she will pick up is anyone's guess. The question of whether Jayalalitha is seriously considering a Prime Ministerial bid is even more significant. The Dravidian parties have traditionally had a tendency to stay slightly aloof from the government in New Delhi, but there is a possibility that a "Tamil PM" might prove to be a unifying issue. As such, a more "colourless" Tamil leader, such as one from the MDMK or the PMK might emerge as a winner. Sivaganga MP and Home Minister P. Chidambaram, who was a runaway best performer in the UPA government should have been a good choice under these circumstances (and a great choice for the country as well) , but the Congress is in no mood to advance anyone other than Dr. Singh (except Rahul, of course).

One man who should never be counted out is Chandrababu Naidu. For one, Chandrababu would make a fairly good Prime Minister. Although many will disagree with his vision and his approach to development is often facile, Naidu does not lack good intentions. That, in itself, places him way ahead of leaders of many other regional parties. Naidu's one major impact on the national scene, i.e. the elevation of Dr. Kalam to the highest office, is remembered with pride and gratitude by most Indians. Of late, however, Naidu has been wallowing far too low in the filth, allying with the Left, with K Chandrasekhar Rao and sundry others. The Oracle would like to believe he is the same Chandrababu of old. But, perhaps, that is not to be.