BJP's balance sheet of allies

Those of us with even moderate political foresight have known for some time that the Congress has been living in a fool's paradise. Now that the parties that used to be in the somewhat optimistically named "United" Progressive Alliance have all decided to go their merry way, suddenly the BJP's balance sheet does not look so bad.

The NDA's core has, of course, come down to just 3 parties other than the BJP: the Shiv Sena, the SAD and the JD(U). The BJD used to be a core member until it decided to overreach itself. Fortunately for the BJP, the BJD does not have much of a choice once the elections are over. The prodigal son of the NDA will have little recourse than to troop back to base camp soon enough.

It would be more than just a stretch to imagine that these five parties (including the BJD) can muster a majority on their own in the House. The BJP, however, has no reason to despair, since all that the NDA needs to do is finish ahead of the "UPA", whatever form the latter alliance might have at that moment. The key is to clearly demonstrate that the "UPA" has lost the popular mandate, if it ever had one. If that is achieved, it will not be very difficult to get fencesitters, many of them estranged friends to support and/or join the NDA. These "fencesitters" have made things more efficient by putting themselves up for sale on a single unified forum the Left likes to call the "Third Front". Post election, a winning NDA can offer great careers to these unemployed former Chief Ministers.

The NDA has a lot of estranged friends. Some have faded into oblivion. Some are fighting for life. Some others are actually doing well. Some would want back in, but have drifted too far to do a volte face. The AGP, the INLD and the RLD belong to the second category and all three have done the smart thing by joining hands with the BJP. The Congress is sitting on two remarkable performances in both Asom and Haryana that would be hard pressed to repeat. In western Uttar Pradesh, Ajit Singh's RLD might give a much needed boost to the BJP's demoralized and depreciating rank and file.

What about others? First, the funny ones: like the National Conference and the Lok Janshakti Party. A father and son Muslim party like the National Conference should never have allied with the BJP in the first place. They have faced up to their embarrassment and are now busy ruling their ancestral land, with help from the royal family in Delhi. Good for them.

Ah... Paswan of course. Why is it that Paswan gets tricked into joining some alliance or another each time elections take place? He was with the NDA until 2002, then with Laloo in 2004 and then claimed to be Laloo's biggest challenger in 2005! He made a fool of himself every single time. His latest gambit is to ally with the RJD he had sworn to uproot from Bihar. Let's see how long that lasts before Paswan finds an excuse to join the winning alliance.

Things are more interesting for the BJP down south. In Andhra Pradesh, the TDP and the TRS have actually tied up, although few could have predicted this five years ago. The BJP has been putting in a lot of money and energy in the state and any meaningful gains there will help the party to attract, for instance, the TRS into the NDA fold. In fact, now that the TDP and TRS are together, it should be possible to bring the TDP in tow if needed. Chandrababu Naidu has been cozy with the Left for far too long. Out of a sense of denial, Chandrababu wants to believe that the drubbing he received in 2004 was due to his BJP ties. Instead of blaming himself and his outlandish governance schemes that he liked to refer to as his "vision", his blatant inability to stem the tide of Naxalism, Naidu still believes that the BJP weighed him down in the 2004 election. Fortunately, the worst is over for him. The electorate might not have switched sides entirely, but people are beginning to consider him again. His promise of providing social security to the poorest of the poor might also help in reviving his fortunes. If the NDA agrees to make a few cosmetic concessions to the state of Andhra Pradesh, it will not be too difficult to have Naidu back in the BJP camp.

Then there is the AIADMK, which knows that it is carrying the momentum of the election in Tamil Nadu. It is not for nothing that the PMK switched sides in such a dramatic manner of late. State elections in Tamil Nadu are far away and Jayalalitha would want a foothold at the Centre. The Congress has invested a little too much into its alliance with the DMK to be in a position to take AIADMK support. In any case, it is impossible for the Congress to take in Jayalalitha without immediately losing DMK. The NDA has a vacancy it should look to fill right there.

The role and purpose of the NCP in Indian politics has always been somewhat of a question mark. Initially, it was Congress strongman Sharad Pawar's ego that drove the party. However, with passage of time, the NCP has evolved more and more of a state level personality as opposed to the wishes of Pawar Sahib who has always wanted a more pan-Indian presence. The NCP's proximity to the Shiv Sena has been a source of both consternation and consolation for the BJP. The personal equation between Balasaheb and Pawar Sahib has kept both the BJP and Congress on tenterhooks. Even so, it is far too speculative to imagine the NCP joining the NDA camp after elections.... not yet...maybe in a post Pawar era....

Whether the BJP can get Mamata Banerjee back depends on how well the TMC does in Bengal with Congress support. If Mamata is able to deal a body blow to the CPI(M), as she probably will, she will try her best to keep the Congress with her. This can change only if the Congress has to take Left support in order to form a government. Mamata Banerjee has defined her politics by her opposition to Left Front hegemony. And even though nothing, not even joint Congress - Left -TMC support for a Central Government can dent that image, leave it to this highly emotional politician to freak out over the ethics of having a "semi-alliance" with the Left at the Centre.

That leaves Mayawati and Mulayam Singh, the two worst politicians in the country. For the NDA, Mayawati is the more "natural" ally. Maulana Mulayam, the one who ordered the shooting of VHP workers, has few bridges to the BJP. However, the extreme bitterness between the Samajwadi Party and the Congress, the propensity of the Samajwadis to justify just about any alliance as well as their desire to have as many anti-Mayawati forces together as possible, suggests that the NDA can have some sort of "arrangement" with the SP. For its part, the SP wants the Congress to act as a subservient doormat in UP the way the latter typically submits to Laloo (not this time!!) in Bihar. The Congress, on the other hand, cannot get over the fact that the SP treats the Gandhi family as though they are nothing special...just flesh and blood like everyone else. Perhaps Mulayam Singh's dislike of dynasties has roots in the fact that his own political guru Charan Singh passed him up to give preference to his son Ajit long ago. Advani practises politics as the art of the possible. Should the opportunity present itself, he will not make light of it.