Pressure group building within UPA

In a striking anticlimax, the coming of elections has been heralded by a string of betrayals, snapping of alliances and breaking of promises. It is almost as if our politicians can't seem to wait until after the election is over.

Given that the UPA, a post poll alliance (lest we forget!) from 2004 has not contested any elections as a united force, there is small surprise that the formation is in disarray a month before the polls begin. The Congress Party has been in firefighting mode, striving to preserve some semblance of dignity in the seat sharing arrangements it has to work out in state after state.

The Congress' problems stem from the fact that it is a spent force in almost all states where it has alliances and is locally dependent on its regional allies (such as SP, JMM, RJD) to a much larger extent than the BJP is. Ten long years of ineffective government by the Congress has weakened the party's position in Maharasthra vis-a-vis the NCP, which has an axe all of its own to grind. The Congress is in a very difficult situation in Mumbai, Konkan and has lost a lot of ground in Vidarbha and Marathwada regions. The NCP has always maintained a slight distance from the Congress and as a result, the Congress Party is completely cornered in Maharashtra. As for Tamil Nadu, it seems clear that Jayalalitha has the initiative and whatever remains will go in favour of the Congress' Dravidian ally. Although the DMK's overall position has weakened, it is in a much stronger position to bargain with the Congress. In Andhra Pradesh, the Congress can only lose seats, though probably not too many. Similarly, the Congress will lose seats in Delhi, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and is likely to be pushed to the wall in Gujarat and Karnataka. Even though Rajasthan will probably offset some of the losses and they will make minor gains in Madhya Pradesh, this is not enough to make up for the difference. The party is facing disaster in UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa, Chhattisgarh and there might be surprises in Assam. As a result, the allies realize that it is the perfect time to rub the Congress nose on the ground.

Consequently, the UPA allies have not only asked the Congress to accept less than 5-6 seats in most states, but they have also decided to challenge the claim of their "Big Brother" to the post of Prime Minister. Sharad Pawar and Ram Vilas Paswan have openly expressed their desire to be Prime Minister and for Laloo Yadav, the claim that he will be "Prime Minister one day" has been a continuing refrain over the years. Of these, Sharad Pawar is the only one who is dead serious about his desire to be Prime Minister. A first sign that the Congress has been scared by its allies is Pranab Mukherjee's recent statement that the UPA need not project a Prime Minister at all. Lest we forget, Pranab Mukherjee nurses an old wound over the issue of Prime Ministership; Pranab da circulated his CV among the Congress leadership after Indira Gandhi's death to stake claim to the highest office, but was reprimanded for imagining that he could become Prime Minister while an able bodied, adult Gandhi family descendant was still alive. This blemish of thoughtcrime has since stayed with him and in 2004, the choice fell on Manmohan Singh, a man whose record of loyalty to the Gandhi family was as spotless as his white kurta.

Unfortunately for the Congress, its list of current allies includes the Samajwadi Party and the latter commands the skills of Amar Singh, who is the foremost practitioner of realpolitik in the country today. The crafty Thakur who can make alliances literally appear out of thin air and strike fantastic deals you never thought possible; is capable of slitting the Congress' throat with surgical precision. The fact that Amar Singh has met Sharad Pawar in person, following which Pawar saab has made his Prime Ministerial ambitions public, should raise a lot of eyebrows. In classic Amar Singh style, Pawar's talk about a "Maharashtrian PM" has made the Shiv Sena sit up and listen. Sharad Pawar, a man grappling with cancer, does not have much to lose. Amar Singh realizes that; and the SP has a great personal rapport with Laloo Yadav. The fact that the SP is Mayawati's principal challenger makes Paswan a natural ally for Mulayam Singh Yadav, while events in Sri Lanka have pushed the DMK to move away from the Central government; it could hardly get any worse for Congress. Most of the Congress' allies are on highly cordial terms with the Left Parties and by extension, the so called "Third Front".

What does this mean for India? It follows that should the UPA finish ahead of NDA, it will still have to bridge a yawning chasm of at least 70 seats to get to the majority mark and one of the concessions the allies will demand is the giving up of the post of Prime Minister. In fact, the Left Front, which is one of the gluing forces in the "Third Front" will find it impossible to support a Congress Prime Minister after the drubbing it will likely receive at the hands of the TMC-Congress alliance in West Bengal. In fact, should such a situation arise, the Congress might be confronted with a fait accompli over the formation of a "secular government". If the Congress refuses to swallow its pride at such a point, the BJP, which will get the BJD back on its side in a flash after the polls, might be able to put the numbers together, by attracting say Jayalalitha, Mayawati and others. In such a scenario, the "blame" for letting the "communal BJP" have its way will fall on the Congress.

Rahul Gandhi has succeeded to the Congress leadership at a difficult time. The party organisation is in bad shape and alliances have weakened the party beyond recovery in several states. The party of his fathers seems oddly bereft of inspiring leaders and if only clean image were everything in politics, S M Krishna would have been in power much longer than Rabri Devi did. There is some urban sympathy over the persona of Dr. Singh, but if only that were enough, Atal ji would have never been shoved out in 2004. And now, given that there is uncertainty over the leadership of Dr. Singh, this positive might wither away. Rahul Gandhi, with the weight of his hundred year old dynasty on his shoulders, is older than Advani in practical terms. Young India has not fallen for Rahul's unintelligent antics and Priyanka Gandhi's possibilities have been let go waste, possibly because her children might not carry the Gandhi surname. The Congress needs to dictate some terms, but it seems that, for now, the "allies" are the people doing all the talking.