Back in business?

Chief Minister Vansundhara Raje can afford to breathe easy. The fires from the Jaipur blasts have been put out and the dust has settled on the Gujjar agitation. With the nation turning its attention to the shameful controversy surrounding the Amarnath shrine and then to the much larger issue of the survival of the government, Rajasthan can take a much needed break... before the breathless campaign for the November elections begins. Amid the lull, it seems to be of little concern, either to the government or to the people, that the perpetrators of the Jaipur blasts have gone free and that peace with the Gujjars was bought at the expense of the law. Precious little has been heard of the outcome of the 30 day exercise Raje ordered to collect information on illegal Bangladeshi immigrants living in Rajasthan. And the fact that Rajasthan now has over 50% reservation, as do Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu, thus defying a Supreme Court directive, is not causing any clamour.

In this election year, the obvious question is whether Raje has found a politically expedient solution. A few weeks ago, the government had looked helpless in face of the Gujjar violence. This has certainly dented the image of the administration, there is bound to be a broad consensus among non Gujjars that the agitation left the government with little scope for reasoning. The most interesting part of Raje's solution is the 14% reservation she declared for the upper castes. This is a direct appeal to the BJP's core upper caste votebank, which feels left out in the cold in the relentless struggle to be classed "as more and more backward" among social groups. In its own warped manner, there is a certain fairness to a 14% upper caste quota: with the "general category" openings in government institutions shrinking to zero, it is only fair that upper castes should have some little ground to stand on. As such, upper caste reservation is no longer as counter-intuitive as it may seem at first glance. The Raje government pulled it out, much like a surprise gift. In the bitter, caste ridden society of Rajasthan, this might just energize the BJP's base. The major challenge, of course, is to implement this decision; it might be remembered that the erstwhile Gehlot government declared a similar 10% quota for Brahmins, but never took the idea seriously.

As for the Gujjars, their initial demand of ST status has not been met, but they have made it pretty good with a 5% bracket inside the OBC quota. The Gujjar leader Col. Bainsla has played his cards pretty well. His successful gambit was to enlist Congress support to scare the BJP, but he never let the Congress take over the movement. The colonel was in control at every stage of the agitation and the storm passed before the Congress could make up its mind over whether to cast its lot firmly with the angry Gujjars. It is likely that Bainsla has now won iconic status within his community, despite having led them down a path of bigotry and vandalism. When the crisis was finally over, he made sure he was polite and gracious to the chief minister, even projecting a certain bonhomie with the BJP, just so that in the months ahead, both parties would be vying for his support.

Sachin Pilot's evasive attitude might have cost the Congress. As Rajasthan burned, the Congress dragged its feet over the issue. Sachin Pilot blew hot and cold over the issue, first offering "moral support" and then shying away from leading the movement himself. This made it easy for Bainsla to stay in charge. Pilot's attitude probably stems from his desire to establish himself firmly at the helm of his party in the state. Five years ago, the Rani's parivartan yatra had galvanized BJP workers across Rajasthan and given the people an opportunity to connect with their Chief Minister. Like Pilot, who is one of Rahul Gandhi's band of followers, Vasundhara had also started merely as a favourite of her party high command, with little or no acceptance statewide. She earned her spurs in the 2003, campaigning in the heat and dust of the desert state. In contrast the Congress has made little progress and in fact, has hardly shown even a desire to drive the BJP from power. Although anti-incumbency is fairly reliable in India and the people of Rajasthan have a decent record on rotating their politics, it is unfair to suggest that the incumbency cycle will beat the BJP automatically. The elections of 1998 were held in an exceptional political climate. Those of 2003 involved a charismatic leader who connected instantly with the people, a severe drought that spread anger and disaffection among the people, together with a ruling Congress that seemed to have given up even before the election had begun. It is somehow easier to think of Rajasthan as a place where things change slowly; in order to seize power, the Congress must shake the establishment rather wildly. As of now, the typical issues that breed anti-incumbency, such as price rise and unemployment, have come to be identified more closely with the Congress than with the BJP. If the BJP has lost some prestige due to its apparent helplessness during the Gujjar agitation, the Congress led UPA has lost a lot more. And some in the Congress are still waiting for Rahul's magic to take effect.

Reservation is a disease. It has crippling effect on government institutions and other arms of the state. It poisons community relations, celebrates low achievement and discourages independent effort. It makes discrimination endemic to the system and undermines respect for the law; for principles of justice, fairness and equality. Upper caste reservation is its newest symptom. This monster takes many forms; some of them ridiculously illogical; think, for instance, of the "NRI quota" in the IITs that has now been scrapped. In the new century, the countless communities in India suffer from the weight of age old suspicions and superstitions; a kind of social debt accumulated over centuries. This debt must be paid out in full before we can make this century our own. Reservation is no way to pay off this social debt. One can only hope that democracy finds a solution on its own.