For a while now, I have been itching to write about the upcoming elections in the Hindi heartland; but have suffered because the two major parties have offered nothing to write about. From the manner in which the BJP and the Congress have been conducting themselves, you could hardly say that a major round of elections is just a few weeks away. Even when the Election Commission announced poll dates, the reality of the upcoming trials did not seem to register with either high command in New Delhi. However, the malaise in both political formations finally shows signs of abating; and some progress is being made.The BJP, for its part, has finally managed to get off the mark and announced some candidates, mostly in Chhattisgarh and furnished the media with some vague pointers as to the overall nature of the party's preparations, expectations and candidates for the polls. The Oracle analyzes the BJP's state as follows:
1) The muted BJP campaign is in stark contrast to the euphoria of 2003. The party has realized that there is a difference between the campaigning as the incumbent and campaigning as the opposition. In 2003, Vasundhara Raje and Uma Bharati braved the heat and dust of the road in a brutal summer. This time, the BJP leaders have mostly stayed indoors; realizing that it was the Congress' turn to slog on the streets. The Congress, of course, was closeted in the even more comfortable environs of New Delhi and made no such effort. Besides, the BJP has been "lucky" in the sense that the Central Government has been pushed to the wall over rising prices and terrorism. A lot of the focus has been taken off the performance of its own state government. Going by the nature of the Indian electorate, incumbency is always a heavy cross to bear, even if the government has performed well; and the jury is still out on whether the BJP rule has resulted in a net gain for the states.
2) The BJP has also paid more attention to the views of its local units in the states in which it is the incumbent. This is also a departure from 2003, when Vasundhara Raje was handpicked by Mahajan to secure Rajasthan for the party while Uma Bharati was persuaded to go down to Bhopal and take charge. Once again, we see the BJP adopting a different tactic when it is the Opposition: in Delhi, the party has thrust V K Malhotra's candidature upon the organization, when the most deserving man for the job would have been the hard working and understated Dr. Harshvardhan.
In the heartland states, the party high command has also stayed away from the direct campaigning and left the state units to figure out their agenda on their own. In particular, the post of prabhari, to be occupied a calculating man sent by the BJP from New Delhi to micromanage the campaign, is conspicuous by its absence in all 3 heartland states.
3) A lot of media attention has been drawn to the BJP's new revolving door policy; the so called "Gujarat model". Assured of the still enduring appeal of its Chief Ministers, the party has commissioned internal surveys to obtain assessments of all MLAs from their constituents. The party promises to drop a third of its sitting MLAs to negate anti-incumbency at the grassroots level. By keeping these assessments secret, the BJP has managed to keep the MLAs on their toes and members of local party units enthused about their prospects of earning a party ticket. By announcing candidates only at the last moment, they have staved off the possibility of denied ticket seekers or unseated MLAs surfacing as rebel candidates, a phenomenon that hurts an incumbent party a lot more than it hurts the opposition.
Moreover, the BJP understands that Uma Bharti's BJSP has been waiting in the wings to snap up rebel BJP MLAs. The party has tried to contend with this situation by offering unseated MLAs tickets at the local level, or even berths in the "Zila Sarkars". Whether the party manages to keep from ripping at the seams once all candidates are announced remains to be seen.
4) Even with the best of strategies, the BJP will have a hard time defending three major states at once. For now, the party is putting up a brave face and even a hint of a swagger. This is partly due to the fact that major media organizations have not carried out their own opinion polls. For now, all projections in the media seem to come from anecdotal evidence. The BJP, for its part claims to have carried out its own meticulous surveys; itemized its strengths and weaknesses and analyzed its chances of victory. Though one could hasten to dismiss the BJP's talk of its own surveys as mere propaganda, we must remember that it was the BJP's own projections that came closest to the real picture the last time these states went to elections.
The BJP's biggest friend seems to be the utter disarray in the Congress camp. The Congress has been in two minds about its leadership in both Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. In Rajasthan, conflict continues between party chief C.P. Joshi and Ashok Gehlot. Although Gehlot seems to enjoy an advantage over Joshi, probably due to the former's proximity to Sonia Gandhi, he does not quite seem to be in control of the campaign. Also, in an election where anti-incumbency is the Congress' main plank, it does not make a lot of sense to bring back a leader that has already been set aside by the people. The people of Rajasthan unseated Gehlot five years ago; it is more likely that they would want to see a new leader as the agent of change, rather than a throwback to the past. A wildcard such as Sachin Pilot could have done a lot more to energize the party workers and the electorate. The Congress party's apathetic and ambiguous stand on the Gujjar issue that rocked the state a few months ago also hasn't helped. In fact, Bhaisla has all but called upon his supporters to vote for the Rani. Besides, Vasundhara Raje does seem to be capable of holding on to her grassroots appeal and still manages to hold huge rallies at a moment's notice.
In Madhya Pradesh, the Congress is, once again at a loss for leaders. And disunity does not help. When Sonia Gandhi rallied her party workers in Kamal Nath's constituency earlier this year, she repeatedly called on them to make common cause with each other. At one point there was a broad consensus that Suresh Pachauri should be projected as CM. But as Pachauri locked horns with the Chief Minister in a prestige contest ... and then lost a bypoll in the summer, he seemed to have shed some of his sheen.
The game in Chhattisgarh is being played out much more subtly. In the early years of BJP rule, the party's star had begun to fade rapidly. But in the last two years it seemed to be making large gains, even wresting seats from the Congress and BSP in tribal areas of the interior. In Chhattisgarh, the two parties have often found themselves in the same boat; defending against the ever present threat of Naxal violence. Even though tribals account for close to 50% of the state's population, the BJP has installed a non tribal Raman Singh as CM and the surprise is that this has not become a huge issue. This is made even more strange by the fact that the BJP swept the tribal regions in 2003, taking as many as 25 of 34 reserved constituencies; which therefore account for about half its tally of 51. As the election draws near, the BJP has been reminded of the influence of the disgraced Judeo in the crucial Jashpur region and the party has offered a ticket to Judeo's son Yudhvir Singh. Sonia Gandhi has also deployed one of her favourites, the wily Ajit Jogi to retake the state. This time, however, the contest is entirely bipolar, with leaders such as Vidhya Charan Shukla having faded into oblivion.
A lot of heat remains to be generated in this round of state elections. Of late the country has had too much talk of nuclear deals, uranium, inflation, credit crisis and too little of genuine electoral politics. The Oracle's heart yearns for the flavour of the older brand of non elitist, scorched earth campaigning. As the Hindi heartland steps up to vote, can we see some more of this?
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