Political soup in Jharkhand

The political compass has been spinning madly in Jharkhand for a while now. Just so we can get a sense of how Jharkhand became the most politically unstable state in the country (perhaps after Goa), let us take a look at the timeline of events that have happened since the Assembly Elections of 2005.

1. Shibu Soren forced upon the state as Chief Minister by Governor Razi, by falsely claiming the support of 2 MLAs in his letter to the Governor.

2. BJP smuggles out 5 MLAs through Bhubaneshwar to Delhi and parades them before the media.

3. Supreme Court strikes down the nomination of an Anglo Indian member by Soren, asks proceedings of the Assembly to be videotaped: Arjun munda forms government. Governor Razi receives a severe reprimand from the President for his partisan role.

4. Coup engineered by Laloo yadav unseats Munda, replaces him with independent Madhu Koda who had been supporting the previous government.

5. Shibu Soren is convicted of murder and sent to prison.

6. Koda abdicates in favour of Soren.

7. Soren seeks election to the Assembly from Tamar constituency, loses miserably to a candidate from the Jharkhand Party.

8. President's rule is imposed.


...phew! It is difficult to believe that all this could have happened in just four years. And now the UPA "partners" continue their machinations to prop up a new government as the enraged Opposition demands fresh elections. The question is: could a political class get so self involved, so self centred that they actually forget that they are representatives of the people? The state of Jharkhand performs miserably on every indicator of development, the majority of the people languish in desperate poverty, illiteracy is rampant and social unrest threatens to boil over. Jharkhand is a microcosm which parallels the many states in Africa, etc. that are complete disasters.

The state of Jharkhand has, on an average, struggled to keep any maintain an organized polity. In Ranchi, for instance, where local bodies went to polls last year, the number of candidates was so large that special arrangements had to be made. While this is symptomatic of a vibrant democracy, this also suggests that the state might be falling over the edge into anarchy. Small state Assemblies have always been a bane, with smaller parties and independents having a field day, but Jharkhand has taken this to a whole new level.

So what options do the political parties have? The BJP has had to lie low ever since Arjun Munda failed to save his government. Ever since, the party has struggled to win by-elections, mostly due to organizational and local problems. The state unit has been torn apart by factionalism. Uncomfortable personal equations between party leaders such as Yashwant Sinha and Yadunath Pandey have taken a toll on the BJP's fortunes. Although party backed candidates performed handsomely in the local bodies a year ago, the party has let its tribal support slip away. The major architect of this decline has been former BJP leader Babulal Marandi, who is usually credited with having run a fair and decent BJP government in the state. But, in this election year, the BJP seems to be getting its act together. Recently, party leaders were in the streets of Ranchi together, in a show of unity, demanding fresh elections. The party has also gradually expelled the malcontents, who have found seats of opportunity in other political corners.

The BJP has also had to deal with a sulking JD(U). After JD(U) lost Namdhari, the party has been reduced to nothing in the state. This has not stopped JD(U) leaders from demanding a large chunk of the seats in the state. As a result, the BJP is now threatening to go on its own in the Lok Sabha elections. As in 2004, this gambit could cost the party dearly, since even marginal number of votes can tilt the outcome decisively in such a fractured polity.

Fortunately for the BJP, the UPA camp has been plagued even more seriously by internal problems. The bonhomie between all anti-BJP parties that brought all seven of them together as a mammoth alliance in 2004, is nowhere to be seen. It is noteworthy that the seven parties together had managed to notch up a mere 2% larger share of the popular vote than the BJP had on its own. Had the BJP been in alliance with JD(U) at that time, it would have won at least 5 seats.

The UPA's abysmal failure to run a confidence inspiring government or to put up a united face is going to cost them dear. No one ever took Madhu Koda's government seriously and how the people feel about Soren has become amply clear with the Tamar bypoll results. To my knowledge, a sitting Chief Minister seeking entry into the Assembly has never been turned down by the people. And Tamar is an utterly rural seat in the tribal heart of Jharkhand. If "Guruji" cannot make it there, he should think twice before trying his luck. The decline in JMM's fortunes is largely due to the fact that people are tired of the blatant opportunism of the party. The integrity of JMM is so low that disgust is the only possible reaction. The party has never had success in the urban areas of the state and now it is beginning to fall apart in tribal areas. This is the fallout of the whimsical leadership of Shibu Soren. JMM ranks cracked even as Assembly elections were in process in 2005, with the exit of Stephen Marandi. Less than three weeks later, Stephen Marandi was back at Soren's side as his trusted lieutenant. Things kept changing even after that; and Stephen was in the company of Babulal Marandi when the Oracle lost track of him.

The JMM's sour relations with RJD have not helped. In the aftermath of the Tamar fiasco, the RJD rushed through a proposal to have its own Annapurna Devi as Chief Minister (the RJD's obsession with food continues.... from Rabri to Annapurna). Soren, for his part, wanted Champai Soren to hold the position until the former managed to win a later bypoll. After Champai was rejected by UPA partners, the choice fell on Nalin Soren, then on Salkhan Soren and finally on Sushila Hansda. It took Shibu Soren four tries to figure out that the Congress was happy to rule the state through Governor Sibtey Razi and didn't mean to have anybody from the JMM as Chief Minister. Now Soren is threatening to contest the Lok Sabha polls on his own if the UPA partners do not cooperate. Given that the UPA has failed to contest a single election in the last three years as a united whole ever since it was formed in 2004, this is what would have happened anyway.

In all this, the man who has looked rather unperturbed is Babulal Marandi. His Jharkhand Vikas Morcha has gone from strength to strength. Some of this has to do with his stubborn refusal to return to BJP out of a sense of honour, a rare commodity in Jharkhand politics. His party has sapped the membership of the BJP, the latest being legislator Pradeep Yadav, who is now principal general secretary of the JVM. However, the JVM still lacks a credible cadre across the state, which means it might not be able to translate the generally positive impression of his party into votes.

There is a case to be made before the people of Jharkhand about rising above the minutae of local party politics. Too many parties have come up in Jharkhand in too short a time, each with its own axe to grind, each commanding a small sliver of the population that is too myopic to see beyond some small issue that is of marginal significance to affairs of the state. The outcome: the Congress, which has zero public support in the state, is now ruling the state by proxy. Governor Razi now enjoys power without responsibility. This is what happens when people abdicate their responsibility to the state and the democratic process.