The Asian Powder Keg- I

Comrade Karat is a proud man. He had promised his colleagues in Beijing a great show from the Prime Minister. And Manmohan Singh, accustomed to being a mere instrument of the political will of others, showed an eagerness to sign above the dotted line that brings to mind the capitulation of President Benes of Czechoslovakia before the Nazis in 1938. Nevertheless, the Oracle opines that brief departures from reason cannot alter the course of history. Accordingly, we begin a series of posts analyzing the most sensitive neighbourhood in the political world which we call the Asian Powder Keg. Let us start by measuring up the three forces that make up this combination.

India: The largest democracy in the world.

China: The most powerful dictatorship in history.

Pakistan: The axis of international terrorism.

We start this week by looking at China. Throughout the course of history many more nations of people have lived with an oppressive regime than without. Each of these dictatorships have, in their, own way, sought to enforce their way of life on all of mankind. But, never before have the despots had at their disposal a people so numerous and resourceful as the Chinese Communists now command. Understandably, the pressure on civilization, is therefore, unprecedented. We will therefore divide our article into three parts, each part headed by one of the infamous slogans of `Ingsoc' in George Orwell's sordidly telling vision of the absolutist state.


War is Peace

(Left: Chinese soldiers prepare for the SCO military
exercise outside the Russian town of
Cherbakul, Aug 11, 2007
Source: Xinhua)
(http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2007-08/12/content_6022763.htm)





China is acutely aware of India's principal weakness, that being the fact that New Delhi is at arm's length from the Chinese frontier. The weaponry as well as the mentality of the PLA is suited to land based aggression. In order for this invasion to be more effective, China needs to open up a broad front that would enable it to attack the wide Indian plains. This would, however require China to get Nepal out of the way. The well funded Maoist insurgency is now at the throat of that country and this is an objective that has been achieved. Another focal point for them is the occupation of Sikkim, which would allow them to severe the North Eastern part of India from the rest. The Chinese had always hoped that, under the pretext of claiming Sikkim, they could spark a war with India, in which they could swiftly cut the country into two and snap up the entire North-East, leaving the Indian army bifurcated and demoralized. They took a rare step back on this when Vajpayee pushed them into the quid pro pro over Tibet and Sikkim. The Chinese have since been sulking about it and have stoutly refused to repeat their words on giving up claim in Sikkim, even as a helpless Manmohan Singh government made another public admission of the new Indian stance on Tibet during President Hu's visit, much to the glee of his Communist backers.

China's principal concern is that, in case of major conflict, the United States would be forced to intervene as the NATO coalition would simply be unable to live in a World dominated by China. And coalition forces, operating from hostile ports in Japan and Taiwan, along with India's own blue water navy could dominate the Chinese coastline rather easily. In order to outflank India, the Chinese came up with their infamous "string of pearls" strategy; whereby they sought out partnerships with the smaller South-East Asian nations that might come in handy in keeping the Indian navy tied down in the Indian Ocean. Naturally, the Chinese despots found many like minded spirits among the dictators who rule the other Asian nations and quickly forged a string of key alliances.

(The SCO military meet: Reuters: Aug 18, 2007 )
(Source:http://www.canada.com/montrealgazette/news/story.html?id=82c2b408-054b-4fa6-b553-60ce183e3a2a)

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization(SCO) is the face of China's new foreign policy. Building on President Putin's pathological dislike of the West, the Chinese are trying to project a "NATO of their own". To leave no doubts as to what is the axis of the new alliance, the name of Shanghai is included in that of the organization. Fortunately, there is little to this alliance beyond hogwash. Swelling the ranks of its allies by a handful of motley nations from Central Asia will yield little or no payoff and it is unlikely the Russians can be prevailed upon to work actively against India under Chinese pressure, especially given Putin's hard headed and egoistic approach to international affairs. From history as well as common sense, the Chinese know that World War III is the way they absolutely do NOT want to go. But what then of the Chinese dream of world domination? This will come down to subtle manoeuvres and diplomatic artifices . China will use Iran to bleed the US and use Pakistan to bleed India. That's a good start in the dirty dogfight that will follow.


Freedom is Slavery

The following is a quote from the Chinese constitution adopted in 1982. (Chapter II, Article 35)

"Article 35. Citizens of the People's Republic of China enjoy freedom of speech, of the press, of assembly, of association, of procession and of demonstration"




(Chinese tanks at Tienanmen Square on June 4, 1989)

If you choose to think carefully, you will realize that the quote above goes beyond dark humour. In fact it has a deep and terrible meaning. This, in the most profound Orwellian sense of the term, is doublethink.

The world is awestruck by the story of China's economic growth. Amid all this, the stories of the incredible cruelty that is dealt out to the Chinese subjects fill us with wonder and amazement. Roughly 20 million Chinese have been "deprived of existence", in the exercise of the dreaded Hsiao-Mieh. To quote TIME (March 5, 1956)

"These are figures that stagger the imagination. In no previous war, revolution or human holocaust, either in the days of Tamerlane or in the time of Hitler, have so many people been destroyed in so short a period. Because it is hard for the mind to visualize so vast a slaughter in human terms, the Communists have been able to reap an advantage from the very size of their funeral pyre: many Westerners, finding the monstrous incredible, cannot see the blood on the hand of pretended friendship proffered by Chinese Communist Leader Mao Tse-tung."

The Chinese deserve to be free; and so do all other kinds of people. To our minds, used to the ways of democracy and the exercise of free speech, it may seem strange that the Chinese do not rebel against their oppressive state. This however, is the key to the dynamics of the human mind. The masses do not revolt simply because they are oppressed. The masses only revolt when they are incited.

The greatest challenge of our time (as of every other time before) is to cope with evil while distinguishing ourselves from it. That said, flaunting our civil liberties will not have any impact on the Chinese people, insulated as they are, to influences of the international media. Rather, we will need to understand the seemingly irresistible group dynamic that propels them to strength after strength, in other words, we have to understand the underlying freedom in being a slave; the freedom to let go of the weight of our own conscience and feed on the pervasive propaganda of the Almighty State. Without that, no progress can be made in the war against despotism.


Ignorance is Strength?

The Chinese are a proud people. And they should be. Their contributions to human thought and advancement in the ancient world are, indeed remarkable. However, we need to be wary of the new China, one that was born out of the Cultural Revolution, a process whereby the past was wiped out from memory and from record. The spirit of the Chinese people has, however, endured, through the ages and today their creativity and versatility is being utilized towards plunging the world into darkness. It is all too easy to see the evil juggernaut of Communism transcending China and taking over the world. But, then, there is one thing that pegs China back!

It is Truth. An absolute state such as China can only be sustained on the idea of infallibility of its rulers. In a struggle for the soul of the world, this would mean that their government would have to paper over every single failure, hide every weakness from the people as well as from themselves. To admit to a lapse of judgement would effectively destroy the foundations of the absolute state. And each time they are hit hard, they cannot look back and make amends. In the long run, this will cripple them.