Amid the euphoria of multiple victories in 2007, the BJP is grappling with the grim realization that the mythical road to New Delhi runs through Lucknow. Despite triumphs in Punjab, Uttarakhand, Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh (as well as a near certain upcoming victory in Karnataka), the drubbing in Uttar Pradesh and the mixed signals from Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh have left an enduring, bitter aftertaste in the party's mouth. To be fair, they are doing their best to get their act together. After the party unit in Madhya Pradesh was caught napping during the Khargonne and Sanwer bypolls, the BJP is leaving no stone unturned to retain their hold on Betul early this year. The year 2007 began with a major embarrassment when the BJP was upstaged in Raman Singh's own backyard, but they came back rather strongly to snatch Malkhairoda and Khairargarh assembly segments later on. Also, efforts are underway to bring back maverick leader Babulal Marandi, who is arguably, the most popular man in Jharkhand. But, the question remains; what about UP?There is a compelling analogy between Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu; two unabashedly corrupt regional satraps; one a proud princess who believes in concentrating all power in her own hands and the other a patriarch for who built his party as a personal fortune, to be passed down in his family. Is there any daylight between them?
There is, however, a subtext to this analogy; the person who delivered Uttar Pradesh to the BSP is not Mayawati herself, but her pointman Satish Mishra. Overnight, the BSP's slogan changed from the overly offensive "Tilak, Taraazu aur Talwaar inko maaro joote chaar" to "Brahmin shankh bajaayega, haathi badhtaa jaayega". What was shocking about Mayawati's victory is that not once did she choose to pay lip service to the issues of development and corruption. At rally after rally, she promised nothing and demanded support. What was surprising was her organized approach to the election; she opted not to participate in the civic body polls; during the course of the campaign, she refused to fall for the temptation of parodying Mulayam Singh's ridiculous "UP mein hai dum, kyunki jurm yahaan hai kum", unlike the BJP. Instead, she stuck steadfastly to her message of a grand caste alliance. On the other hand, Mulayam Singh, sensing defeat, chose to guard his votebank rather than play for victory. The BJP and the Congress played around with issues, from Hindutva to Dynasty and never once caught the pulse of the people. What emerged from this caste cauldron is an assembly that can be best described as this
(Source: indiadaily.com)There will never be a more opportune moment to seize the initiative. Mayawati's honeymoon with the voters is coming to an end, as evidenced by her humiliating defeat in the bypolls in Ballia. The alliance between Brahmins and Dalits was unnatural to say the least. Since Mayawati does not tolerate any credible leadership in the BSP except her own, it is safe to assume that Satish Mishra will be shelved (by the way, where is he, already?) and Brahmins are going to complain about not having their "due". In the meantime, the BJP needs to project a Brahmin face; all this before the familiar anti-incumbency vote drops safely into Mulayam's lap. Vajpayee has faded away and it is clearly impossible to find a Brahmin leader of his stature. Rajnath Singh, the tough thakur, will not suffice, particulary, in a state where "Beti aur vote" are given within the caste. Add to this the adage that the Brahmin always votes with the "rising sun".
The BJP does have some straws to cling on to. It won handsomely in the civic polls and picked up an assembly segment within a week of Mayawati assuming power. This means the organization is not dead; the leadership has failed them. The demographic of Uttar Pradesh has also changed, with Muslims forming as much as 35% of the electorate in several parts of the state. It remains to be seen if Mulayam Singh's strident pro-extremist rhetoric will alienate the upper castes sufficiently to prevent him from getting the full anti-incumbency vote. If not, the next Lok Sabha elections will leave our nation at the mercy of scumbags like Maya, Mulayam, Jayalalitha and Chautala. Fortunately for us, India Inc. has learnt to grow while our government sleeps.
1 comment:
It will be a mistake to read too much into the defeat of BSP in the Ballia by-election. The seat has always been a pocketborough of Chandrashekhar, so it was no surprise that his son won the election easily. Mayawati still is a formidable force in UP, and should Lok Sabha elections be held now, her party will bag the most number of seats in UP.
BJP still has an uphill task to do here. Their cadre is demoralized, and there is no leader who can make them pull up their socks. Kalyan Singh, Kalraj Mishra, etc. these are all yesteryear grad old men. Hindutva ideology no longer works with the voters. Mayawati's social engineering (read: consolidating caste-based vote bank) has done wonders for her, it will be very difficult for BJP to get its traditional voters back to itself.
As for the Congress, the less said the better. By becoming sub-servient to the Gandhi family, the party is losing its ground everyday in UP. I am surprised by their belief that Rahul Gandhi will do wonders for the party. But frankly speaking, these Harvard/Oxford educated people are the least qualified for the nitty-gritty of politics, and even less for becoming credible leaders for the masses.
Post a Comment