The cauldron in Karnataka is ready to boil over. Right from the time the state threw up a three way verdict in 2004, it was clear that the politics of the state was steering through a hairpin bend: that the popular mandate having turned only half way; would stop short, turn again and head off in the reverse direction. We remember what happened in Bihar in 2005. Bihar was poised to move decisively away from the politics of Laloo Yadav, but failed to accomplish this in a single manoeuvre. The electoral omens portend much the same for Karnataka this time.
The rise of the BJP in a state that has so far been conscientious in its choice of socialist and secular politics is remarkable. At a time when the BJP is facing meltdown in its heart of Uttar Pradesh, the fulfillment of the BJP's "ultimate ambition" of ruling a southern state could be a watershed for the party. Moreover, the BJP, which is making a case for coming back to power in 2009, will want to use a southern victory to generate nationwide momentum in its favour. Of course, the BJP is yet to strike its roots deep into the heart of the state, for it still lags way behind both the Congress and the JD(S) in civic and local body holdings, although in the last election cycle, the BJP more than doubled its tally while the Congress faced heavy losses.
Then there is the issue of "sympathy". It is obvious that the BJP should have known better than to take the Gowdas at their word. One would presume that the BJP which had been repeatedly let down by regional satraps like Mayawati in exactly the same manner, would have learnt its lesson. Further, one would guess that the BJP, which was clearly the rising sun on the political horizon of the state, would be wary to dilute their image by entering into a meek tie-up with the weary Gowdas. This owes partly to the stunning political act pulled off by Deve Gowda at the moment the Congress and JD(S) parted ways in January 2006. Along with Sonia Gandhi's "sacrifice" in May 2005 and Laloo Yadav's appointment of Rabri Devi as Chief Minister of Bihar, this ranks among the three most flawlessly executed acts in India's recent political history. The BJP snapped up any power it could get and the Gowdas got to carry on with their deception; for another 20 months.
If Deve Gowda and H D Kumaraswamy delivered stellar performances in the first act of the Karnataka drama, they failed miserably in the second. The unseemly manner in which the BJP was ditched is also one of the most politically unintelligent acts in recent history. Gowda and his scions have to carry the tag of "betrayers" into this election and well beyond. In a state that is self-righteous enough to pick separate politics at the national, state and regional levels, this might well be the proverbial albatross around their neck. Perhaps I am speaking too soon, but it is probably all over for the JD(S).
Having witnessed the seemingly irreversible fragmentation of Indian politics over the last decade, it is somewhat refreshing to see a major state being reclaimed by a bipolar polity. Since the BJP and JD(S) have failed to provide "stability", the Congress must fancy its chances. The tactic of delaying the election so as to ease the "sympathy factor" was a lame, pathetic effort that might well backfire. The remission of farmer loans is their best hope and going by the amount of vigorous energy the BJP was poured into "educating the farmers about the realities of the Congress' plan", it is evident that Chidambaram's generosity has struck a chord in rural India. The Congress has also reinstated SM Krishna at the helm of affairs and it is possible that his development friendly, urbane image will make an impact. SM Krishna is one of the people who knows how rough and unfair politics can be, as in the "backwards" election of 2004; in which non-performers like Laloo, Mulayam and Navin Patnaik came up trumps while those such as Chandrababu, SM Krishna and Modi were snubbed. SM Krishna also brings with him the aptitude for technology that is so uncharacteristic of the Congress and the silicon valley does look up to him. If people look beyond the Dharam Singh experience the Congress gave them, it is not inconceivable that the Congress might win a majority.
The BJP's strategy is rather simple. They will give tickets to all their sitting MLAs to cement the sympathy factor. The Congress will be playing catch up. And the JD(S) has a lot of explaining to do.
The last word: Karnataka has seen some really ugly politics over the last four years. It is all too easy to blame the "power hungry politicians" for everything. The baseline is that the confusion in Vidhan Soudha reflected the confusion in the mind of the voter. Ultimately the responsibility for the murky dealings and if it be so, the blame, lies with the people. One hopes that the Kannadigas have a clear vision for their state this time around.
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