Is the Cold War really over?

Both leaders are on their way out, with one crucial difference. While there will be an absorbing, democratic contest over the coming months to see who steps into the White House, Putin’s chosen successor has already been ratified by a sham election. Mutual suspicions and hostile whispers came to the foreground as diplomats on both sides parleyed endlessly over the choice of words while the meeting concluded with Putin’s ominous statement: “Our fundamental attitude towards the American plan has not changed”.

The Americans plan to station interceptor missiles and listening devices at locations in the Czech Republic and Poland, professedly to keep tabs on Iran, which is believed to be building missiles that can strike Israel and Turkey (in the short term). However these same listening devices, radars and missiles could reach deep into Russian territory. As such, Putin’s concerns are well founded, not to mention the fact that sometime ago, at a very cordial meeting in Moscow, the Russian President gave a clean chit to Iran.

The US attitude to the situation is rather puzzling. Although President Bush has repeatedly harped on the line “the Cold War is over”, he has pushed zealously for the eastward expansion of NATO. Surely that is a move that could have no motive other than to thwart a resurgent Russia. NATO has always been a military alliance; with none of
the attributes that would make it comparable to an international organization such as the European Union or the UN. In fact, NATO members showed scant restraint in pointing out the symbolic meaning of the summit meeting in Romania, which is both the newest full member and the eastern border of the organization. Despite his oft repeated commitment to “working together with Russia”, the Americans have not been amenable to the demand that the proposed missile bases, if built, should have Russian observers on them “at all times”. When the Russians suggested that the US use a Russian radar in Azerbaijan, they were dismissed on the pretext that the Russian radar was not powerful enough to allow good focus, a fair bit of condescension that the proud Putin found hard to swallow.

Our major concern is whether we are witnessing the beginnings of another Cold War. Are we hurtling down the road to Cold War – II? And, like the Second World War, will this second Cold War be more ruinous than its predecessor? It is a chilling possibility that needs to be examined.

For one, we no longer live in a bipolar world. A Cold War in the traditional sense is impossible. The new conflict scenario would have to deal with power centres in China, India and Europe; perhaps even in Brazil. Further, even though Russia’s “one party democracy” is way different from the style of democracy in India or the US, the bitter ideological struggles are a thing of the past. The Chinese establishment, which is better rendered as “authoritarian”, than as “Communist", is imbued with an extreme form of narcissism which prevents them from
wanting to spread their ideology; in sharp contrast to the former Soviets.

Nevertheless, it remains to be seen whether conflicts of economic interests can sour international relations to the point of Cold War. For instance, the Russians were able to leverage their power as massive producers of oil over France and Germany who shut out the recent US initiative to include Georgia and Ukraine in NATO, or even to offer them so much as a “Membership Action Plan”. Similarly, German Chancellor Merkel, rattled by prospective loss of business by German companies, broke ranks with the US and refused to pile on any more economic sanctions on Iran. It appears that big corporations, despite their greed; do make the world safer. For the moment, it does seem that globalization creates an economic dragnet that forces all nations to cooperate for the sake of profit, if not for peace. Sometime ago, China balked under the massive international pressure to stop cheating on its currency and gave way, but only just.

A more disturbing feature is a sinister international club whose formation has been in the works for some time now. This club has been started by Iran and Venezuela and has been joined by Cuba and North Korea and in general, the club invites all ill-meaning nations to the table. The existence of this club leads to real as well as imaginary fears among the American people (not to mention those manufactured exclusively for propaganda purposes). In order to satisfy the needs of domestic politics and to preserve international economic interests, the US is preoccupied with these three or four nations, all the while fighting its two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, backing up Israel’s ventures in the Middle East and screening for latent threats across Africa and South East Asia. China and Russia are looking to
fish in these troubled waters and have built far reaching economic ties with these same countries. Being international pariahs, these countries are unable to trade with the rest of the world and it is only natural that their economic benefactors will hold immense power over them. A Cold War scenario excludes major combat between superpowers, but allows for intense localized conflict in smaller, stooge nations. This is what might well happen, as the Russians and the Chinese scramble to pick up countries like Iran, Venezuela and tap into the strangely vicious anti-American sentiment that pervades large parts of South America and Africa.

If the NATO is a living reminder of the Soviet capitulation in the Cold War, the newly formed Shanghai Cooperation Organization is, as yet, a mysterious entity whose exact intentions are unknown. The name ‘Shanghai’ is supposed to be a reminder that this bloc is China-centric (remember what I said about Chinese narcissism?). Herein lies an inevitable power struggle. A real cold war would require the two sides to be clearly defined: for the moment it seems that the Russo-Chinese side has two very distinct, loudmouthed, egoistic heads on its shoulders that cannot stay put without knocking into each other. America faces the same problem, but to a lesser extent: although the European Union has, of late, been assertive in rejecting US moral authority, America can resolve its ego issues with the EU much more efficiently. For the moment, it is somewhat amusing to note that both the NATO and the SCO are holding military exercises that are “directed against terrorists”.

Unfortunately, it is still not clear whether India will have a role to play on any one side of a future Cold War. Of course, a second cold war is by no means necessary, nor in any way inevitable. In fact India, with its defence ties to Russia and its economic ties to America, is in a position to hold peace. However, the recent criminal flirtation of the Indian Army with the Chinese is a major lapse of judgment. It might be another instance of doing things by halves; letting major world events happen while refusing to commit to a public stance; and then wondering why history always passes us by. We do not want wars, cold or otherwise, but if there is to be one, we need to be in it to win it.