Pungent Nemesis? - Will price rise hurt the Congress?

There is a whiff of opportunity in the air. The BJP, which had been feeling a little unsettled over the farmers' response to PC's bumper budget, has found its nerve again. The party expects the issue of rising prices to resonate soundly with the people of urban India. But will it?

For one, the BJP feels like it deserves some poetic justice. A sudden rise in onion prices some ten years ago had cost the party its governments in Delhi and Rajasthan and doused its hopes in Madhya Pradesh. At that time, the party had just begun its reign at the Centre and those election results had blown a hole into their long cherished dream. The BJP would like nothing better than to rerun the script, this time with the Congress looking down the barrel. Squarely, the Congress has an ominous sense of doom about this issue of rising prices. Both sides understand its power.

Of course we must ask whether the upbeat Indian middle class of 2008 will be overly concerned about rising prices as long as the economy continues to grow at a spectacular pace. It goes without saying that the hysteric reaction to the onion prices of 1998 cannot be repeated, a little more so because our large media houses will never take to Congress bashing with the same fervour with which they go ballistic against BJP at a moment's notice (maybe we will talk about that some other day). But the issue of price rise is very real and it is folly to imagine that middle class people will be so enamoured of India's bright future that they will look beyond the very real challenges of everyday life.

A small mercy for the Congress is that the BJP has been unable to mobilize a political movement over this issue as yet. This is due, in part, to a clamour of dissent within the BJP in Bihar, Punjab, Jharkhand and Maharashtra; a prevailing sense of despair over the situation in UP and a recent preoccupation with winning in Karnataka. It remains to be seen whether the party can use the momentum of a near certain victory in the Southern state to make the argument that BJP rule is imminent at the Centre. But, for the moment, the BJP has failed miserably to hold the Congress feet to the fire. The embarrassment mounted when the BJP could not muster 10 MPs when both Houses of Parliament debated the issue earlier this week. When Laloo issued a statement blaming the traders for conspiring with the BJP, effectively casting a slight on an entire community; the latter failed to take advantage of the situation. This is in stark contrast to the way Laloo had successfully played up Atalji's half joking "Main Atal hoon magar Bihari nahin hoon" remark some years ago.

The Congress is aware that it matters very little as to whose fault this actually is. Last week, the finance minister lamented "This price rise is a global phenomenon" and, in all fairness, indeed it is, as this recent New York Times article notes. However, having ridden to power on an "Aam Aadmi" agenda only to stage a volte face, perhaps the Congress can no longer "ignore the plight of the common man" citing massive economic growth, which incidentally, is strikingly similar to the much satirized electoral plank of the NDA in 2004.

It also turns out that the BJP is not the only party that is looking to profit from this issue. The Left knows well that the very same urban constituency has come to see them as the chief villains over the failure of the nuclear deal. This is their chance to embrace a cause less despicable than trying to hurt India's credibility and security. Although the Left has moved away decisively from its famous policy of "maintaining equal distance from the Congress and the BJP", given their support for Manmohan Singh's government, their new policy of "maintaining equal distance from the ruling party and the people" may not work very well to their favour. For a while, immediately after May 2004, it did seem as though the Left was the "real" opposition, while the BJP had been reduced to a party of bitter losers who were blaming each other for their electoral debacle. That was when the Left could patronize and criticize the government at will, without taking any political risks. The same situation no longer exists in 2008 and the Left would be ill-advised to try demonstrating against their OWN government.