BJP complacent in Karnataka?

Once again, the BJP has had a week of bad publicity with the party facing fire from its own in Bihar and Maharashtra. Over the last few days, Gopinath Munde, one of the party's oldest leaders; boldly raised a standard of revolt; rode it all the way to New Delhi in full public view; got what he came for and returned in triumph. Rebel legislators in Bihar have been running a campaign, with painfully obvious Brahmin vs OBC overtones, against the leadership of Modi and although some 36 of the party's 54 MLAs are reported to be involved in the exercise; Chief Minister Nitish Kumar will not care so much as to comment on the situation. Nevertheless, of late, the central BJP leadership has projected a picture of sprightly confidence that is difficult to understand.

The Oracle explores whether the BJP's position on Karnataka could be a prime example of this strange, new confidence. The party has been having a continued spat with the JD(U) over seat sharing; the BJP is ready to offer only 15 seats to its ally and is having none of the latter's demand for 25 seats. First, we must admit that JD(U) is a bit player in the state and that the party is known for making unreasonable demands on the BJP elsewhere, such as in Jharkhand and in Bihar (where it demanded, in November 2005, that all independents who had turned to the NDA be given JD(U) tickets; incidentally, it was the BJP's Arun Jaitley who had broken the ice in Bihar by rounding up the independents in the first place!). Second, the BJP lost as many as five Parliamentary seats in Jharkhand in 2004 because it did not have an alliance with the JD(U) and one of the reasons for its much improved showing in the assembly elections held some 10 months later was that it received the full cooperation of the latter.

Yet, it cannot be said that the JD(U) is in a position to seriously damage the BJP's prospects in the coming elections in Karnataka. I have noted before on this blog that the people of Karnataka seem to put a lot of thought into their ballot and they might not like a party that seems to be acting as a smug winner before the votes are in. The bench strength of regional leaders always seems to exceed expectations and the BJP would be delusional to count Deve Gowda as out of the picture. Although Deve Gowda and Kumaraswamy have covered themselves with the taint of treachery, there are pockets of the state where their clan is venerated. Besides, Deve Gowda appeals to a more rural crowd and farmers, who seem to have got a pretty good deal from the Congress, might not want to go "too far" from the Congress... all the way to BJP. Reports also suggest that, given the shift in concentration of seats towards urban areas, while the BJP seems to have gained from the delimitation of constituencies in most of the country, it has lost some winnable seats in Karnataka, Delhi and Maharashtra.

Yet another challenge awaits the BJP in Karnataka: that of dual leadership. It is not hard to remember that Ananth Kumar had been the party's chief ministerial candidate in the Assembly elections of 2004. After the failures of 2004, Ananth Kumar was eased out of the state and "accommodated in the Central leadership". This time round, he has all but disappeared, with the spotlight being placed on B. S. Yediyurappa. Clearly, there is a conflict waiting to happen!

It is easy to see why the BJP might be complacent. The party is very strong in coastal Karnataka, including Dakshin Kannada and Uttar Kannada regions and placed very comfortably in Bangalore. BJP workers are probably not finding it very hard to sell the argument that a BJP administration could be a new, refreshing turn for the state; or that the people should vote decisively so as to avoid the pitfalls of a hung verdict. However, the single biggest error the party could make is to expect a "wave election". Karnataka is simply not in the kind of situation when one expects to see a wave; there is no single pressing issue that could polarize the voters ... gaining power for the first time in a southern state is a priority for the BJP and not a priority for the people! And yet the BJP seems to speak in those very same terms. Advani and Rajnath Singh have a firsthand knowledge of the perils of overconfidence; and they would be ill advised to tread the same path.