India loses a friend: Time to move beyond individuals?

The direction in Indo-US bilateral relations taken during the Bush years will serve as a diplomatic compass for several decades to come. Hardly surprising therefore, is the fact that the President who made America unpopular with its traditional allies in Europe has made foreign policy experts on both sides shake their heads in disbelief and agree that "Blame Bush for what you will, but with regard to India, he got it absolutely right". In this article, we analyze whether President Bush's departure from the White House will put Indo-US ties in peril.

It is hard not for Indians to feel some personal affinity for President Bush and the party he represents. After all, it was Bush and his Republicans who made the US overtly friendly to India, cemented military ties and helped India gain recognition as a legitimate nuclear power. However, it may be argued that most of these measures were imperatives for US policy, given the political, military and economic rise of China and the menace of Islamic terrorism. Even so, the thaw in Indo-US relations is very new and Bush happened to be in office when all of it happened. It is therefore pertinent to ask whether bilateral relations will continue to improve, given that Bush is no longer President and that the American people typically regard his Presidency with disgust and anger.

New Delhi has already answered half of the question. That the right wing BJP brought India closer to a Republican ruled United States is understandable. The events of Sept 11 pitted the civilized world against Islamic terrorism and both the BJP in India and the Republicans in the US were only too happy to join hands as "natural allies" against the common enemy. What is remarkable is that the "US-tilt" in Indian foreign policy continued even when the BJP was replaced with a Congress government propped up by Communist support! By the same token, India and the US share so many common interests and so many common values at the moment that it is difficult to see why things would change now that the Republicans have been replaced in Washington.

America has learned from its experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan. The paradigm of war has changed to a great extent and raw power is no longer enough. The US realizes that a unipolar world is now out of question. China intends to threaten the US from all quarters and the Russians will never stop flexing their muscles. America's European allies are sulking and do not have the stomach for a fight anyway. Even the once unassailable Israelis seem to be faltering into a public relations nightmare. The US needs allies desperately, allies that are economically strong and militarily potent. And allies don't come much bigger than India.

Also, America's political games over the last sixty years have finally brought home the lesson that supporting tinpot dictators for immediate ends never pays in the long run. The Saudi Royals are the most zealous and most well heeled supporters of terrorism in the world, the gambit in Iran never took off, training the Mujahiddeen in Afghanistan resulted in the worst terrorist attack ever and the one time support to Saddam backfired spectacularly. America has paid in blood and suffered much in the last eight years. A man so brilliant as Obama can be logically expected to have learned: Choose the wrong allies and you can't win. Therefore, it follows that America will strive to build alliances with "like minded nations" only, nations that are fundamentally friendly to the American way of life.

That apart, India and China are also some of the few places in the world where economic growth is still happening. America, which is seeing a trough in its economy, needs all the business it can get.

Much depends on how the US perceives the situation in Pakistan-Afghanistan (isn't that hyphenation so much better?). The realization that Pakistan and Afghanistan are two parts of the same problem is not lost on the Americans. If terror is funded by the Saudis, its infrastructure is parked in Pakistan. After six years in Afghanistan, the US fully realizes that its mission will never succeed as long as the Pakistani Army continues to play double agent (triple if you start counting the Chinese in). Obama has voiced his desire to stop all military aid to Pakistan if it does not take believable steps in aiding the US war on terror. That Pakistani credibility has reached an all time low in Washington was on display when Secy. Rice (as did the rest of the world) summarily dismissed all Pakistani attempts to pretend that Pak based elements were not behind the 26/11 attacks. Not that Pakistan's reputation was much better earlier in the fall, when President Bush gave the US military permission to conduct operations inside Pakistan without consulting/informing Pakistani authorities.

The time is, therefore, ripe for the Indians to cut off the Pakistani lifeline in Washington with one fell swoop. Sending Indian troops to Afghanistan would not only strengthen the US military there in real terms, but also push Pakistan to fall out of US favour for a very long time to come. Of course this is a very courageous diplomatic step that neither bureaucracy will be able to pull off. US-Pakistani relations are much more likely to die a natural, long drawn out death. Pakistan will inevitably draw closer to China and become part of the new "axis of evil". The US (and certainly India as well) will remain wary of this possibility and will try everything it can to prevent the inevitable from happening.

And finally, it is necessary to keep the forthcoming Indo-US (and certainly Israel) alliance in historical perspective. This is a very important geopolitical alliance, which will possibly expand to include Japan and might well be the hope for humanity once the fascists of all colours start getting their act together. Such an important alliance cannot be built on the strength of personal rapports. After all, India and the US found each other as natural allies, not exactly through diplomatic channels, but through common interests, common values and people to people contact. This is the stuff enduring alliances are built of.