The post 26/11 diplomatic offensive: Did it work?

The Indian Government has been waiting, and so has the humble Oracle, for the response from Pakistan. It has been more than two months since India has established, beyond all reasonable doubt, the fact that the Mumbai terror attacks were conceived and commandeered from Pakistani soil. Apart from the damning dossier that India compiled, most democratic nations in the world and even some despotic ones like Saudi Arabia bought India's claims almost at face value, leaving Pakistan scrambling for a credible defence. The Oracle now begins an analysis of what Pakistan's aims are, of the measure of India's success and of world perceptions that matter.

1) The immediate aftermath: Given the relentless 24 hour coverage that the Mumbai terror attacks received across the world, India began on the diplomatic game on an international high. The Americans and the rest of the (civilized) world, for the most part, thought that war was imminent and top US officials basically conceded that there were few moral grounds to restrain India from seeking violent revenge. The world community, which had hitherto taken a more nuanced view of the India-Pak question, was strident this time around in saying that it is errant Pakistan that needs to fall in line with international commitments. The United Nations rushed through a ban on the Lashkar's front organisations and Condolezza Rice firmly told the Pakistanis that India's case was irrefutable. It was a marker of how much attitudes have changed towards India. The sentiment that carried the day in the international community was that Pakistan had to be pushed to act fast against terrorist to prevent an angry India from going to war.

Although it now appears that much of the war phobia across the world was unfounded, the entire exercise was not without merit for India. The lame and listless sham Pakistan Government was fried in international circles when it tried to embrace sundry conspiracy theories about the Mumbai attacks. Much of this is owed to the extensive coverage by a sharp Indian media, the fortuitous capture of a live Pakistani terrorist and the establishment of a clear trail of evidence leading directly to Pakistan. This time the world community was more informed, more conscious of South Asian issues and more disgusted over the failures of Pakistan. On former occasions, it had always been India's word against that of Pakistan, suggesting the existence of a genuine controversy. This approach worked as long as the two nations were hyphenated in international perception. As India worked its way into the list of potential superpowers and Pakistan floated towards the top of the list of failed states, the hyphen was stretched too thin. The hyphen snapped when the Mumbai attacks took place.

2) Pakistan's antics: The low life running the government in Pakistan have lurched from one inconsistent statement to another. Long before the attacks of 26/11, we had lost count of Pakistan's damning failures. To put this in perspective, Pakistan never got its democracy off the ground, failed to retain its Eastern arm and most of modern day Pakistan has never seen much of government, only anarchy. The biggest failure of all was the plan to "bleed India with a thousand cuts", which has backfired spectacularly. The ruse of being an American "ally" against did not endure for long before it was brutally exposed, with Pakistan too scared to even protest violations of its territorial integrity by the United States. The Pakistani Army which floated the Taliban in the first place could not masquerade as the "frontline of the defence against the Taliban"; fanaticism runs too deep in the Pakistani psyche and all lies have been nailed. Between each military dictatorship and the next, the Islamic Republic has survived on a series of "life extensions". You can't build a future based on life extensions.

After 26/11 happened, the "government" of Pakistan began a series of hard headed arguments. First, they contended that the attacks had nothing to do with Pakistan; but Pakistan could not find a single nation that would so much as hear them out on this one. Even Saudi Arabia, which is the No.1 state sponsor of terrorism, shook its head in disbelief at the Pakistani argument. The Americans would have none of it, neither would the British, the French nor the Germans. The one shot in the arm came when the chief of Interpol suggested that there might be some merit to the Pakistani claim, but there was only so much Pakistan could gain by clutching onto a straw. The American response was particularly damning, with Condolezza Rice describing India's evidence as "irrefutable" and Sen. McCain suggesting openly that India could hardly be blamed for a war, should it want one. Though many in the Islamic world will heave a sigh of relief at the change in the White House, President Obama has, many a time, uttered that the US might need to "bomb Pakistan". One of President Obama's first orders of business was, in fact, doing just that, when he allowed a US missile strike in Pakistan's tribal areas.

Ever since, Pakistan has wilted under pressure. First came the admission that captured terrorist Kasab is indeed Pakistani. Pakistan asked for a joint investigation; then ordered its own probe. Then it promised to act against terror groups on its own soil and also claimed that the Jamaat ud Dawa etc. were "charitable organisations". Then it promised to reply to India's dossier by Jan 26, a date that came and went. Recently reports suggested Pakistan would actually file cases against five people for the Mumbai attacks. These were soon superseded by suggestions that the attacks had been planned in "an European country". Who's counting anyway?

Pakistan, understandably, is trying to buy time. They are still hoping that the Mumbai issue will fizzle out. Whatever the plan is, it doesn't seem to be working.

The Pakistani civilian population is caught between a rock and a hard place. They have been poorly served by their "government" and their media. Instead of trying to isolate the extremists after 26/11, the immature, ill informed Pakistani media bought into a series of conspiracy theories and anti-India jingoism. Worse, many actually suggested that the Mumbai attacks were the beginning of the collapse of the Union of India and therefore a cause for celebration in Pakistan. The Pakistani media is a market of insane ideas, one in which, the 9/11 conspiracy theory is assumed to be an established, well known truth and the Mossad is almost blamed for the Kashmir earthquake. The civilian population needs therapy, not a reinforcement of their delusions.

Pakistan has been a wreck since its inception. The wreckage is sinking now. It was a mistake to found that nation on hatred. Pakistan does not stand a chance now. It never did.

3) Indian stance: The Oracle has been no friend of the UPA, but due credit must be given to the diplomatic stance assumed by the Indian Government. External Affairs minister Mukherjee has held his line stoically and has been duly backed by the new Home Minister and by the Prime Minister. The Government intelligently nailed Pakistan with a dossier and did not let one inconsistency pass in the last two months. Besides, India showed the evidence of Pakistani involvement to anyone who would listen, leaving not a doubt in the minds of the whole world that Pakistan based elements had carried out the terrorist attacks. This was apparent when China, which had blocked a UN resolution to ban the Lashkar Front organisations no less than three times; got out of the way with a whimper this time. The Chinese have been covering for Pakistan at the UN while people have not been looking. The Chinese also started a whisper campaign at the Nuclear Suppliers Group last year to confound India covertly, while supporting India on the outside. That's two strikes for the largest rogue state in the world.

Two months hence, the Indian government has not wavered much. It has refused to be drawn into a slandering match with Pakistan. It has also garnered worldwide goodwill for restraining the urge to use military might.

There have, of course, been minor infractions. First there was Minority Affairs Minister Antulay making public his misgivings over the death of Hemant Karkare. Being a Muslim and a Gandhi family loyalist at that, he was later issued a full pardon by both the Government and the media. The attitude of the corporate media is apparent in that the attack on a group of women in a Mangalore pub has received so much more attention than the rape of an 8-year old girl by policemen in Uttar Pradesh. Though the media might have its priorities wrong, the free market media model that India has still, fortunately, worked to our favour in international circles.