Election-2009: Are voters seeing the challenge? -II

In the previous article, the Oracle presented the three "meta-challenges" facing India. In this piece, we will consider whether voters seem to be fully cognizant of how much is at stake and what is to be done.

Like most things about India, there is more than one way to answer this question. Judging from voter percentages alone, you would think that the voter is apathetic. After all, voting percentages in the three phases of election held so far have struggled to break the 50% mark. Heat wave or no heat wave, conscious citizens should have recognized the importance of their duty. Standard (or sub-standard) excuses such as a general cynicism towards the political system are the most shameful of all; they are little more than intellectual and moral cowardice. In short, if you think the nation is broken, pick up yourself and stand up for your nation. If you think you have an opinion that needs to be heard, pick up yourself and voice it. Not doing so, or expressing mindless cynicism, or speaking in vague generalities serves no purpose and it is disrespectful to the millions of people in the world who live under oppressive authoritarian regimes. If we do not celebrate our freedom, how will we spread it? How will we convince other nations to become free? As and when it is written, history is very unkind to cowards. So... all shame be upon them who did not exercise their franchise in the General Election. This nation will never forgive them.

On the brighter side, we have millions of good people who did come out to vote and thanks to their efforts, we expect to have a democratically elected fifteenth Lok Sabha in power by June 2. Though the grime of our centuries old civilization clings fast to his skin, the Indian voter has always shown a maturity that has confounded his critics. It was the humble voter that rescued India from the clutches of Indira Gandhi's dictatorship, thus saving India from following in the doomed path that so many newborn democracies have taken since 1947. The Indian voter made sure the Hindu voice was heard in India after a thousand years of slavery and yet made certain that the large Hindu majority never treated the Muslims unfairly. The Indian voter has also rejected politics of separatism, regionalism and linguistic identity. The Indian voter never votes in a frenzy. The Indian voter has slain many monsters. Few nations manage to get this far.

Are voters doing well in 2009? In the first phase of the election, it was moving to see 60% of the electorate come out to voting booths, braving the threats of Naxal rebels. This is truly wonderful. One can only hope the electorate will vote wholesale for rejection of the Naxals just as they did in Chhattisgarh last year.

There is an interesting puzzle here. Over the last two years, there has been a nationwide trend of heavy voter turnout at the polls. Election 2009 bucks this trend. What does this mean? Can the heat wave play that much of a role? If that is indeed the case, the Election Commission is to blame for not having organised the election at a more opportune time. If it is not just about the heat, this suggests the increasingly local nature of issues on which people vote, issues that the Central Government may be a little too distant to address directly. If this is indeed the case, there is cause for major concern. India is NOT meant to be a loose federation of states and if voters are failing to appreciate the overarching unity of India as a nation, we have indeed lost sight of one of the core principles of our Constitution.

Is this increasingly local approach a natural outcome of the raucous multi-party system that we have evolved? Perhaps. What would probably be ideal for India would be a multi-party system in the states with a two party system at the Centre; thus concentrating major policy making power in the hands of a strong and stable Union Government while leaving the "checks and balances" to the States...

It is possible that I am reading too much into this. Perhaps local issues are dominating simply because no major national issue has been projected. This need not necessarily be a bad thing. Frenzied masses can sometimes vote unreasonably on so called "national issues". Absence of a "national issue" prevents the election from becoming uni-directional, or from being reduced to a referendum.

In 2009, the voter has been a lot quieter. Everyone who cared to speak was given a hearing and judging from the overall mood, the voter has refused to make any promises so far. The BJP has tried to shuffle horses throughout; shifting between Modi and Advani. Modi has generated much excitement across BJP cadre (and much heartburn in the liberal media), but he has not managed to extract a commitment from the people. The Congress has had little success with Rahul Gandhi, hence the last ditch attempt to change the game by throwing in reserve player Priyanka. The UPA that went in riding a media scripted pipe dream, has been thrown off balance. There is a realization at 10 Janpath that Dr. Singh might soon have to clear out his desk; hence the let off given to Quattrochi. Even Mayawati seems a lot more mellowed these days and is not rumoured to be making waves on the campaign trail.

The worldwide recession has, of course, taken some toll on the confidence of the people. However, the Left, which has tried to generate support for its own brand of regressive politics by riding public disillusionment with dreams of "fabulous growth", has come a cropper. However, in urban centres, the initial reaction to "play it safe" has worn off. Terrorism and the public humiliation of India have a part to play in this. The initial desire for inaction has given way to an undercurrent of urgency about doing something quickly to fix the nation.

However, on the issue of economic reforms, the voter is still in two minds. He cannot commit to a ruthless capitalist model like the United States and yet he cannot but acknowledge the success of this model (even in spite of the recession). The recession has made it that much harder for reformists to speak, but there is little reason to give up heart. The voter hasn't.

The Oracle concludes that, in the minds of the Indian voter, this election is hardly "special". It remains to be seen whether the voter is behaving insanely by thinking thus.... or just being more sensible.