Pakistan in flames: India wary of smoke - II

Continuing from Part-1, we now come to the political and diplomatic options that India has given the current scenario in Pakistan.

First, we have what one might call the "Forward approach". This is all about making big things happen rather than reacting to them. If China can courageously pursue a "One China" policy, there is no reason India cannot pursue an "Akhand Bharat" policy. Given that India has never made territorial demands on Pakistan despite being well positioned to do so several times in the past, an idea like this might generate shock within the Indian diplomatic community. However, anything vaguely bordering on the threshold of "conquest" is seen in extremely negative terms by the world at large. Unfortunately, most of the Western powers will not understand the sentiments of the Indian people about the oneness of their ancient homeland striken by a shameful partition. Nor does India have the clout to make this case forcefully. "Akhand Bharat" is not about conquest or occupation; it is about stretching India to the banks of the Indus, the Hind to the Hindukush and returning the Sindhi people to the Sindh. We get that. They don't.

But there is no reason India cannot work towards this dream in smaller ways. As Pakistan begins to disintegrate over the next few years, there is no reason India cannot start claiming its old domains. The unification of Kashmir would be the first place to start. Given that India has always talked of "Pakistan occupied Kashmir" and this region is still included in the official map of India, this does not even represent a departure from India's diplomatic stance.

The problem is how one can get Indian troops into Kashmir without starting a war or even appearing imperialist. This is where joint action with the United States becomes imperative. To achieve a goal in this "Forward policy", India has to take the initiative and join in with US forces in Afghanistan. Such a suggestion, would, of course, send Indian liberals into a tizzy, but the national interest is above the screeching of anti-national elements. The more uncomfortable issue is with getting the US to accept and appreciate the value of Indian military deployment in Afghanistan, particularly with its new President Obama who thinks he is some kind of charmer who can make the beasts of hell dance to his tune . Indian presence in Afghanistan will provide the US with some true tactical advantages and not just in the sheer military sense. It goes without saying that Indian military deployment will come in the form of real numbers and not token support like the kind the US has come to expect from its European "allies". Second, India has excellent relations with Afghanistan and presence of Indian troops will bolster the argument that the US is not an occupying force. Thirdly, one of America's major challenges is connecting with the people of Afghanistan, without whose help no lasting solution can be achieved. Connecting with this mostly rural, mostly medieval nation will be a lot easier if the Americans are seen in company with other people of colour. Unfortunately, the people of Afghanistan have not achieved the sophistication to think beyond race and America has to act accordingly.

The only downside for the United States is that Indian presence shuts out the possibility of Pakistani cooperation. As American officers on the ground realize how dishonest the Pakistani pretence of "support" really is and how weak and worthless Pakistan is anyway, this situation will mitigate itself. Besides, the new diplomatic establishment in the United States has a few hard lessons to learn from dictators before it begins to see the light. India will have to wait until that moment.

The advantages for India are manifold and the encirclement of Pakistan is pretty much the least of these. Deployment of Indian troops beyond Indian soil will raise the stature of India as an international power. It will also set the stage for larger joint Indo-US operations that may be required in other theatres. The prospect of Indo-US operations is enough to send the Chinese into a huddle. The Chinese will get the idea quickly and stop throwing their weight behind Pakistan. A drop in Chinese morale benefits both India and the US.

On the less pragmatic side, unification of Kashmir should be the first step in the long journey to redress the injustice of partition. The liberation of Balochistan is important, both because the Baloch people deserve to be free and because Balochistan has never really been part of India and we have no claim to the land.

A forward policy comes with its perils. Expansion of Indian troops into Afghanistan might cause a paroxysm in Pakistan and might well lead to a military takeover of the sick country. In this scenario, Pakistan's nuclear arsenal becomes extremely important. This is where the Oracle must leave the question open and hope the US has a "Plan B" hidden somewhere... an audacious operation to deprive Pakistan of its nukes at lightning speed. It is not foolish to assume the US has the ability or that it is at least working on such a plan.

Two more caveats: First, can India even afford a major military deployment in Afghanistan and protect the homeland should things go cataclysmic? The answer to the first part is most certainly "yes", but the second part is more tricky. Does India have the might to protect the Western frontier AND the Northern frontier after sizeable numbers have been moved to Afghanistan? Can the Indian Navy handle Chinese vessels operating out of Burma, Sri Lanka and perhaps even Bangladesh should the worst happen? On the naval side, things do not seem so dismal. On the Northern frontier, things do not look so good. But the chances of an Indo-China war starting over heightened bitterness between India and Pakistan are so dim that it is well worth the risk.

The second caveat is that any forward action by India will cause considerable discomfort among smaller South Asian states like Bangladesh and Sri Lanka who might gravitate further towards China. Again I daresay that joint Indo-US operations raise a prospect so terrible for China that the Chinese will not have much use for these little countries anyway.

In conclusion, the Oracle opines that a five year careful watch might well be worth the wait. America isn't going anywhere from Afghanistan, Pakistan is never going to get better and the new guy in the White House will touch the ground in about that much time (Yes.. I am sure Obama is going to get a second term) What is important is that India wait to reap the benefits of the deadly harvest that is finally coming ripe in our military labs. It has taken us sixty years, but finally the Agni, the Shaurya and the Nag are beginning to stretch their limbs. The Tejas is close to spreading its wings and the ATVs, the Shivaliks, the Vikrants await their moment to be pressed into service on the high seas. An air of maturity is beginning to blow across the Indian science, technology and military setup. That is how democracy works. We are over the hump and it is time to collect our treasures. The important thing is that we weren't forced uphill, 20 million people did not have to be "deprived of existence" so that the nation might "live"; we made it up here by the power of freedom. We should wait eagerly for the rich reward.