What's next for Pakistan?

Two things were certain even before the elections in Pakistan were held; one, that the people would vote against their unpopular President/General and two, that the outcome of this election would have very little impact on the country, if any at all. Even so, a segment of the Pakistani people came out and voted with conviction on Feb 18, while a larger disaffected remainder stayed indoors, even though so much was at stake. The Oracle salutes those who persevered in democracy and tries to understand why numerous others did not share their convictions.

1. The greatest surprise of this election was that there was no foul-play on the part of Musharraf’s regime. There is no doubt that the President could have used strong arm tactics to rig the election had he so desired. The fact that Musharraf chose not to take this option offers us a window into his personal mind.

For one, his credibility had touched an all time low… the power brokers in Washington, who had long been conditioned to make generous gifts of money and material to Islamabad had begun to question openly the merits of their foreign policy towards Pakistan. After Sept 11, Musharraf toiled hard to maintain the impression that he was indispensable to the United States. In many ways, that was the only political capital he had. But of late, President Bush’s term was coming to an end and America’s confidence was beginning to waver. What Musharraf had never calculated was that the US would complain loudly over his decision to impose emergency. As the days passed, he looked less and less like America’s key ally in the war on terror and more and more like a tinpot dictator from somewhere in Africa. Perhaps, that is when President Musharraf, who has no friends left in his own country, lost nerve.

Accordingly, he promised the world that the emergency would be the “shortest ever in the history of Pakistan” and he had no choice but to live up to his promise. As such allegations that he had held a sham election were the last thing he wanted.

Perhaps one more reason that Musharraf decided to go through with a free and fair election was the fact that Benazir Bhutto was no longer in the way. Whether the President had something to do with her death remains open to speculation. Most certainly, Nawaz Sharif is still around, but Musharraf has trashed Sharif so many times before that he felt fairly confident of winning another one against him. But Benazir had charisma; she had caught the imagination of the people and most importantly, Benazir was a darling of the West! After the elections, a victorious Bhutto, who enjoyed a great rapport with the US and England, would have been hard to subdue. The same cannot be said of the less suave Sharif, who had been hiding in a hole in Jordan all this time.

There is always the sinister possibility that Musharraf does not intend to handover any serious powers to the elected leaders or plans to overthrow them, either in form or in practice sometime soon. As such, he saw no harm in letting the domestic political parties have their way for a while.

2. It is indeed remarkable that the Pakistan People’s Party did not sweep the elections. After Benazir Bhutto’s assassination and the paroxysm of grief across the country that followed, one might have expected that the PPP would have ridden a sympathy wave to an absolute majority. On the contrary, they are stranded far short of a simple majority and way behind the two thirds mark they needed in order to impeach Musharraf.

Why then did the PPP not win? Despite everything going against them, why did the Musharraf loving PML-Q ended up with 50 seats, only about 18 behind Nawaz Sharif’s PML(N). Perhaps we are asking the wrong questions. Perhaps we should note that there is a glaring discrepancy between the opinions of the Pakistani people and the perceptions of the world.

It is possible that the PPP gained nothing from looking like American stooges. Without the charisma of Bhutto to cover this up and carry the day, they were left exposed. Notwithstanding all that America has done for Pakistan, America and Bush are still the “Great Satan” to millions in the Islamic World. It is perhaps reassuring for New Delhi and for Washington to talk about the “peace loving common people” in Pakistan pining for democracy and self rule, but this is too far removed from reality. Democracy has never taken root in Pakistan; military officers, tribal chieftains and bigoted clerics still reign supreme. On the Muslim street, religion trumps all.

3. We wonder whether the political parties, back after a long interval, have the will to act on their promises. It is an ominous sign that PPP co-chair Zardari, who reached out to make a power sharing deal with Sharif last week, has already stated publicly that he will not expedite the possibility of ousting Musharraf. Both parties have achieved their immediate objective of becoming politically relevant once again. Now that they have a piece of the power pie, they may not want to rock the boat. Musharraf, if nothing else, will not give up without a fight. Both Zardari and Sharif might want to enjoy what they have rather than risk the ire of the all powerful military. Moreover, they need the military to protect them from the extremists. They know that they do not have the force of will to prevail against the fundamentalist forces that are out to get them: better to toe Musharraf’s line than risk being hanged from a flagpole by the Taliban.

The bottomline is that we can do little to bring sense into other nations. A stable, democratic Pakistan is not a real possibility; it is mere wishful thinking. India needs to remain vigilant on the western front and assert the integrity of our borders with China. At the same time, India should aggressively seek out other democracies and look for common interests. Unfortunately, there aren’t any to be found in our immediate neighbourhood.