Riding the airwaves

The sabre rattling exercises in the BJP have peaked recently. With four victories in 2007, the spotlight has been firmly placed on the party and Lal Krishna Advani is leaving no stone unturned to make sure that it firmly stays there. Sometimes, in politics, it is more important to look good than to feel good. Therefore, the BJP swept its countless troubles under the rug and struck a strident self-congratulatory tone at the National Executive. This week, the Oracle looks back and looks ahead on the party.

1) Reservation for women: This was calculated to be a headline catcher and duly served its purpose. Though the measure does not, by itself, bring any more votes to the party, it does give the BJP a look and feel as a party that is "ahead of others". This in turn, will appeal to a section of urban youth, who might otherwise look down on the BJP as a conservative right wing organization. Also, it annuls any possible gains the Congress might have made by appointing a female President and restores the party's female friendly image that had served them so well back in 2003.

2) The Ascension of Modi: Stung to the quick by the outcome of the Gujarat Election, news channels were gushing on Dec 23, forecasting a rerun of the bitter turf war that had rent the BJP in 2004-2005. Much had been made of how Rajnath Singh, who had dropped Narendra Modi from the National Executive earlier in 2007, would begin a series of plots and subplots to undermine the Gujarat Chief Minister. As they had suspected, Modi was drawn closer into the orbit of national leaders, but this was achieved without there being any blood on the floor. Rajnath Singh heaped praise on Modi and held him up as an example to BJP Chief Ministers from other states. Once again, the best man won.

This national executive was the first step towards giving Modi a national profile. The star of Gujarat has an appeal that combines a commitment towards development with a reckless bravado which is precisely what a young confident India is looking for. However, he does need to put the gory times of 2002 behind him in order to have Prime Ministerial appeal and more importantly, sew up a favourable arithmetic of alliances. In holding up Gujarat as the centrepiece of "the India that can be", Narendra Modi has already walked a long way down that path. The Oracle foresees little friction between Modi and Rajnath; the latter seeks to step into Advani's shoes as master strategist, while the former sees himself as the leader of this great of this great nation.

3) The message to the states: Understandably, the BJP is wary of anti-incumbency in the clump of Hindi heartland states that go to elections at the far end of the year. Major losses, coming on the eve of the Parliamentary polls, would take the initiative away from the party. For the moment, the party has good reasons not to despair. Although the incumbency boot will be on their foot, one must remember that, in 2003, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh were wrested from the Congress through spectacular election management and a superb organizational effort. The victory in Chhattisgarh had become certain only after the Jogi administration distinguished itself in the dirty tricks department by planting a camera in Judeo's bedroom. As yet, the Congress has not been set its own house in order in either of the two large states; much less project leaders with charisma who can carry the people with them. A Jan 23 demonstration in Indore planned by the Congress turned out to be a damp squib. Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan are states in which time moves slowly; in the former, the BJP's majority is much too large to be wiped out in a single election, while in the latter, the Congress is yet to start playing a role as an opposition party. Meanwhile, Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit has already signed away the Congress rights to the capital and even fixed the blame on her old foe Ram Babu Sharma; all this even before the election has taken place. One is tempted to argue that the Congress will put its weak organization to a stiffer test should it succeed in delaying the Karnataka election till December. Add to this the fact that Kannadigas have a tendency to vote by their conscience, making separate judgements at the local, state and national level.

4) Pushing the Congress and Left into one box: The BJP is making much capital of the fact that the UPA government has nothing to show for three and a half years of governance. In the aftermath of 2004, it seemed for a while that the Congress led UPA was successfully playing incumbent and "victim" at the same time, showing itself as a coalition with honest motives that was being hindered by the "villainous" Left. A few hard fought victories against the Left would have cemented this image and served as a plank for demanding a more decisive mandate in 2009; along the lines of the BJP's campaign ten years before that: "Hamari sarkar ek vote se giri thi, aapkaa ek ek vote keemti hai". Instead the UPA frittered away this opportunity and chose to surrender to the Left in complete ignominy. In hindsight, though the BJP has wounded the people of India by not supporting the nuclear agreement with the US, Advani's calculated move to deny the Manmohan Singh government the credit for this prestigious and hugely popular deal has proved correct. The BJP's muted opposition was lost in the din as the anti-US freaks in the Left ran around like "headless chickens" and tore the deal to pieces. Three years later the BJP has pushed the Congress and Left into one box and the general aversion to the CPI(M) across the country is, in fact, rubbing off on the Central Government.

5) The enhancement of NDA: It may be said that the NDA has already weathered the test of will and managed to hold on to its core constituents. Jayalalitha is waiting in the wings and the BJP is playing along, waiting for the best moment. Not surprisingly, Advani's message was to "expand the NDA and thwart the UPA". K Chandrasekhar Rao, by adopting a series of half measures, has fallen between two stools and the credibility of his Telengana Rashtriya Samiti has nosedived. The BJP has found a whiff of opportunity and it remains to be seen whether the strident pro-Telengana approach will translate into votes.

The undoing of the BJP, in the past, has been the penchant for drawing the wrong allies, like BSP, Chautala's INLD and Deve Gowda's JDS (as well as several other smaller errors, like Sonelal Patel's Apna Dal). The good thing is that they have already made all the mistakes they could have. A disciplined approach to the 2009 elections, without too many perilous ideas, should get them back to New Delhi.