There is a reason why this post was so long in coming: the ongoing violence in Mumbai and other parts of Mahrashtra is so disgusting that it is hard to preserve a veneer of civility while discussing the political fallout of these events.
One could not have expected much better of Raj Thackeray; a desperate politician playing on the margins of state politics. Sometime ago, I wrote that one could almost "feel sorry" for the "plight" of Raj, who despite his obvious leadership qualities, was passed up by the Sena supremo in favour of a dynastic line of succession. One can go back and forth over whether this divisive message is what Raj always had on his mind or whether Balasaheb's intransigence pushed him into this corner. But that is an argument for another day.
For now, let me mention that there is one striking thing about the violence in Maharashtra. It is all too easy to dismiss these events as yet another instance of ugly regionalism that we are all too familiar with in India; a scramble for jobs, resources and amenities. It is also fair to say that regional identities cannot be wished away and it is not wholly surprising if Maharashtrians feel besieged in Mumbai, Nasik, Nagpur and Pune. Even so, people can be provoked to such acts of violence only in a time of scarcity. The fact that this violence is happening in Mumbai right now, which, by universal agreement is a time of plenty in the business capital of India, suggests that there is a darker political conspiracy at work.
Let us now look at the four major political parties in the state (and neither the MNS nor the Samajwadi Party figure in this list) one by one and deliberate on their public posturing in this time of crisis.
1) The Congress: No one has ever accused Vilasrao Deshmukh of personal courage, much less of a sense of responsibility towards the people of his state. He has usually had the luxury of leaving pressing matters of state to his much more articulate colleague from the NCP; Mr. R R Patil who runs the Home Ministry. However, on this occasion, the suave and subdued Congressman found himself facing an uproarious media gathering of cosmopolitan English language journalists along with their (even more enraged) Hindi counterparts. Ever since the crisis broke, Deshmukh has done little beyond issuing a feeble appeal to "maintain peace".
He might just as well have appealed to his own party workers. It is difficult to believe that the marginal MNS could have mustered all the men needed to create such mayhem in the cities of Maharshtra. For one, the police could easily have brought a handful of hooligans under control, had it been allowed to do so by the political establishment. There is no reason not to believe that the ruling Congress, which runs several civic bodies in direct alliance with the MNS, did not play a part in restraining the law enforcement agencies.
The Congress needs a gamble in Maharashtra. The state voted 25-23 in favour of the NDA even during the 2004 elections. The wounds of dissent in the Shiv Sena have healed and in fact, former Sena elements such as Narayan Rane who have joined the Congress have gone very public with their criticism of the Deshmukh administration. This has opened up a whole new front in the factional fighting. The level of mistrust between the Congress and its alliance partner NCP is appalling; as anti-incumbency builds up, the Congress is getting a sinking feeling that the NCP will turn out to be the senior partner the next time they come back to rule the state, whenever that is. Also, the BJP is beginning to gain an upper hand over the Sena. This means that while the Congress is on its way towards becoming the junior partner in the Democratic Front (DF) coalition, the BJP is looking to dictate terms to its alliance partner. There is a sense of doom as the deadly statistics keep stacking up in Vidarbha and the BJP openly courts them during its "Kisaan Yatra". The Congress has played the farmer suicide card in Andhra Pradesh before and is therefore is nervous about its impact on Maharashtra.
Raj Thackeray's sudden "crusade" has given them an opportunity to bring fresh issues into the political discourse in the state. The Congress party feels that Raj could make a dent in the Shiv Sena's Marathi votebank with this "anti-outsider bogey", which would work to the Congress' advantage. Of course, "mild mannered" Congress cadres would not take the physical risk of joining in the rioting. They would much rather have the administration look the other way on lawbreakers; quite literally, the Congress is rioting by proxy.
2) The BJP: The BJP lives and breathes and swears by North India: and so they had to condemn the violence from Day 1. But the criticism was somewhat muted. This is because the BJP was nervous about the possible actions of its mercurial ally in the state. What if Balasaheb, acting on impulse, made a provocative and thoughtless remark against North Indian "immigrants"? In fact, Uddhav almost got carried away and dropped such a bomb at a rally in Mumbai! In fact one could sense a feeling of "disappointment" in the press over the fact that they simply could not fix any blame on the BJP for the violence in the state. Were the Sena to say something incendiary, the media would have an excuse to dig its nails deep into the BJP's throat.
Fortunately, the Shiv Sena acted with a lot more self control than any of us has ever given them credit for. When a week passed and the Sena had made no major incendiary statements, the party decided to breathe easy and came out with a scathing indictment on how the Congress had mishandled the situation, deliberately kept the police in check and how Chief Minister Vilasrao Dehmukh has no control over the state party.
3) The Shiv Sena: This could well be a turning point for the Sena: the process of assimilation of the "Sainiks" into the ranks of level headed political cadres has finally begun. The Sena supremo has very high credibility among the "Marathi Manoos"; if Balasaheb says that North Indians are not a threat to Marathi culture; they will take him at his word. In fact, Bal Thackeray invoked the fact that Shivaji Maharaj had always seen the Hindus as a single entity and the iconic ruler had been done in by those of his own: an obvious reference to Raj's "betrayal". One of the reasons the violence in Mumbai has been capped is that the poorer parts of town, teeming with new Mumbaikars from UP and Bihar, are now being "protected" by the Shiv Sainiks. This might well end the misgivings of North Indians about the Sena and therefore pose an even greater threat to the Congress.
4) The NCP: They were caught unawares. Home Minister R R Patil tried to take a stand for the rule of law but was overruled by his Congress colleagues. In the sniping and snapping between the two allies the Congress has finally taken the upper hand. The NCP is a primarily rural outfit, governed by local clans and former feudal lords, while "immigration" is an urban phenomenon. As such, they have little to gain by taking sides over this issue. What this means, though, is that they have to stay out of headlines for the time being.
If only Raj Thackeray had not disrupted the means of existence for millions of poor hardworking people, one could feel sorry for him. Raj has as much a right to earn a living as the next person. Right now, he is living his fifteen minutes of fame, as leader of a political organization with instant name recognition across the country. In the long term however, he has to make a career. Although a Thackeray, he is still a politician and politicians have to learn to swallow their pride. Many of his former compatriots have washed their sins in the Congress Ganga and it is likely that Raj will do the same at some point. It is unlikely that this will happen in Balasaheb's lifetime, but in a decade or so, this will come to pass.
No comments:
Post a Comment