India acknowledged-III: But what about the politics?

Dr. Manmohan Singh has been riding his luck for a while now. For the last few months, his beleaguered government has lurched from crisis to crisis, managing to escape alive each time, if only just. This is the first time, however, that he has not only managed to come out of it alive, but also with his head held high.

If the Prime Minister is living a charmed life, he has earned it. The magnitude of Dr. Singh's achievement begins to sink in when one considers how much could have gone wrong in Vienna. The smaller nations could have dug their heels in, the Chinese could have thrown a spanner into the works; even America could have bowed and asked India to accept a couple of "reasonable restrictions" just so the waiver could go through. And even though the Washington Post tossed a live charcoal into Dr. Singh's mouth even as talks were taking off in Vienna, the Government came out of this seemingly impossible situation with its honour intact. It is not something every Prime Minister has achieved; and Dr. Singh deserves all the credit in the world.

The BJP understands this euphoria surrounding the special treatment given to the NSG. Despite its best efforts, the party has, by and large, failed to convince the urban electorate that its opposition to the nuclear deal is of the principled variety. It is time for the BJP to abandon the anti-nuclear deal line and come up with a more popular approach. It could start by congratulating the Prime Minister. Since no such thought seems to be brewing in the minds of the BJP leadership, let us look at other options. The party is right in calculating that the NSG waiver is too all too abstract to gather votes on its own. A scorched earth policy, focusing on inflation, price rise, anti-incumbency and terrorism is quite likely to succeed in the party's urban bastions. The spate of terrorist attacks can only benefit the BJP. A storm of disquiet is gathering over Islamic terrorism: and we may not have to wait too long for the proverbial last straw to break the camel's back.

In fact the explosions in New Delhi have brought celebrations over the NSG waiver to an abrupt end. The talk of the town has changed overnight. So has the mood of the media. People want the government to do something...anything; that could put an end to the mindless violence that now permeates our consciousness in urban life. For the BJP, the worst is over. The party can afford to go on the offensive once again. Amid the din of terrorist attacks, the people will be all ears for the determined voice of the flamboyant Gujarat Chief Minister, who could well make a mark in this election as a star campaigner. The Congress is bound to get a shot in the arm when the Nuclear Deal is finally ratified by the US in a little while from now; but given that there are still many in India who view the US with suspicion, that victory is unlikely to be of as much currency as the world class triumph in Vienna.

For the Congress, this flash in the pan may not light up a whole electoral future. Shortly after the success in Vienna, Sonia Gandhi herded Congress leaders at her residence to take stock of the possible political opportunity. The leaders are understood to have told her that it is unlikely that they can make this work, particularly in states such as Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Any spring of hope for the party in Delhi has now been plugged by the terrorist attacks in the capital. Nevertheless, the party now has something to show for its years in governance. In fact it has managed to push the BJP into the same corner as the CPI(M), China and Pakistan. Sonia Gandhi made a valiant effort to pitch the nuclear rhetoric to the mainly rural audience in Rajasthan a couple of days ago, but the response is, understandably, somewhat sullen. She would have been far better off talking about the farm loan waivers. In fact, the Congress is in danger of sounding out of touch in an election when it is absolutely critical for the party to capture a mega-share of the rural, backward vote. The failure of the BJP's three/four term legislators to hold on to their urban seats played a major role in sinking the party's fortunes in 2004, even as the party actually gained in rural seats. Aided by the incumbency cycle, the traditional BJP tilt of urban areas, the disquiet over Islamic terrorism and the soaring inflation, it is all but certain that the BJP will recapture these territories in 2009.

As for the Left, it is "out of sight, out of mind". They have blown their opportunity to make an impact at the Centre and now face an uncertain future perhaps even in West Bengal and Kerala. Why did it have to be this way? Because the so called "national leadership" of the Left consists of a clutch of quirky ideologues, whose political experience does not extend beyond motley student protests and road barricades. The actual leaders have been shunted to Bengal and Kerala and are rarely ever visible in national politics. It is this Communist propaganda machine in Bengal and Kerala that put the Left on a firm footing in the fourteenth Lok Sabha. But when it came to playing the game at the highest level, the "national leadership" was hopelessly outflanked; it collapsed in an ignominous heap of failure and disgrace.

Nevertheless, there is one outcome to hope for in the 2009 election. Issues like nuclear diplomacy, terrorism and inflation being the central issues, we can prevent Verdict 2009 from becoming yet another conglomerate of state elections. As such, it is possible to keep the opportunists, the fence sitters out of the Parliament. Each time there is a dearth of national issues, the contemptible regional and caste based parties step in to fill the vacuum. If only 2009 would take us away from the pestilence of Mayawatis and Jayalalithas and Mulayams... it would be a step in the right direction.