It has been a true delight to change the intended title of this article from "Jealous, paranoid world blocks India at NSG" to "Jealous, paranoid world backs away at NSG". After a long, bitter struggle at the Nuclear Suppliers Group, India was finally let into the New World Order as a major power.Although the Vienna exercise ended well for us, it is important to analyse every detail of the deliberations at the NSG meet. In order to duplicate the spectacular success of Vienna elsewhere, it is important to understand why the Vienna model worked and how things like this can be made to happen again and again and again, till India arrives on the world scene as a superpower.
1) One of the strategies that carried the day for India at the Nuclear Suppliers Group was that India established a clear bottomline from the very beginning. At both meetings of the NSG, Indian officials had made it clear that India would NOT accept any curbs on its military nuclear capabilities. India maintained that it would not allow international inspections or consider the possibility of cutting production of fissile material. Further, there would be no compromise on the right to test a nuclear weapon, nor should there be any automatic penalties attached to India testing a nuclear weapon.
One might remember that on the night of Sept 4, External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee told a disappointed nation that there was "no good news for India". The NSG members knew that India would accept nothing short of a "clean waiver" and was ready to walk away in case that was denied. The NSG nations, particularly the smaller ones that seemed to stand in the way till the very end, grew uncomfortable at the thought of shouldering the entire blame of sending India away from the threshold of history.
One should point out that these demands are reasonable and are only what would be expected of a major world power. Neither of the five major nuclear powers: the US, Russia, China, France and England face any automatic penalties for testing nuclear weapons, there can be no grounds for asserting that India should not enjoy the same privilege.
We should also mention that the determination of the Indian delegation to get a "clean waiver" also stemmed from the fact that given the tight political situation in the country, a clean waiver was the ONLY prize they could have played for. Had India made the slightest concession in Vienna, Dr. Singh's troubled government would have collapsed. This is yet another imposing example of how democracy always strengthens a nation, though it may not be apparent all the time. Democracy works ... after all.
2) It goes without saying that this could not have been achieved without American support. India owes the Bush administration a huge debt of gratitude for all the hard work it has put in with ambassadors from all over the world. It is an exciting moment for all of us as India steps up to shake hands with the world's oldest democracy, working out the details of a strategic partnership that could shape the world for many years to come.
It is important that Indians appreciate that the NSG waiver is an acknowledgment of India's achievements and not merely a favour done by the Americans. This will enable India to critically assess the objectives of the Bush Administration and decide how to make the best of the emerging partnership. As with building a nuclear weapon, India should exercise extreme caution in handling the Americans. Despite all its apparent generosity and largesse, America does have a tendency to overawe and overwhelm governments across the world, who then become what are sneeringly called "client states". Again, the chances of this happening to India are low; and we can depend on our Communist friends to make sure that India does not cross the line from ally to dependent. Such is the beauty of democracy: notice how Pakistan went from ally to dependent to liability for America. But we never will.
On a somewhat different note, we have just seen yet another amazing display of American power on the world stage. As we envision the triumphs that lie ahead, a dream begins to emerge: America has just shown us the kind of world influence we need to achieve.
3) Another heartening development in Vienna was India's bold assertion of its impeccable non proliferation and non aggression record. No sooner had India come asking for nuclear recognition, than the hard nosed non-proliferation fanatics began haranguing us with ridiculous arguments harping on the conduct of Iran, North Korea and the like. In an earlier era, when the India-Pakistan hyphenation still stood, these arguments would have overpowered world opinion.
India was different at Vienna. India brushed aside comparisons with rogue nations and demanded that India be recognized as a responsible nuclear weapons state. What was more, the world would have to give due weight to India's moratorium on nuclear testing and its self-imposed no first use policy. In other words, India's word is as good as gold. The world agreed.
4) India's success story at the NSG would not have been complete, unless it was punctuated by Chinese backstabbing. Initially, the Chinese had been so confident in the ability of their political arm in India that they had pretended to be neutral towards the US-India nuclear deal, even professing joy at the rise of India as a responsible power. But those schemes fell through and China and India arrived at the NSG ready to storm through. This was China's last chance.
Even so, the Chinese felt they had few options, because they had already taken a stance of agreeable neutrality towards India's audacious nuclear pitch. However, as the hours ticked by in Vienna and India had still not broken through an alliance of half-penny nations (two of them not even fully sovereign countries yet) the Chinese got bolder.
There is every reason to believe that the Chinese had harboured these motley nations to act as fronts for frustrating India's initiative. And that the Chinese made a mistake by openly expressing their opposition on Sept 5. Once the Chinese hand had been exposed, the game was up.
The special treatment India received at the Nuclear Suppliers Group should be seen as a beginning. What we should take away from the meeting is how India stared down at the world. And the world has blinked. It can happen again.
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