Fresh from his success at the Nuclear Suppliers Group, the Prime Minister has decided that it is time for India to spread its wings and head for the skies. This signals the arrival of a much awaited, very opportune moment. The NSG waiver, if nothing else, was a pointer to India's destiny; it is up to Midnight's Children to pursue the dream to its glorious end. In this respect the Oracle makes a round up of the new allies India could attract in its march towards becoming a world power.The first aim is to fix coordinates. This means having to separate allies from enemies. And once the allies have been identified, the goal should be to achieve a tactical partnership, establish the power equation in the relationship and steadfastly claim an equal if not an upper hand. As for the enemies, it is always possible to trade and/or parley with them in a mutually beneficial manner within clearly defined paramters. As senior diplomat Rajiv Sikri wrote, "India claims to have some kind of strategic relationship with all the major global players viz. Russia, France, UK, Germany, EU, Brazil and China, Japan, even Iran and Saudi Arabia!". Such a foreign policy approach marks out India as both an unreliable partner and a lightweight. With achievement comes confidence. With achievement and confidence comes power... and more achievement. For India, the cycle as been started. It is up to the diplomats to keep the wheel turning.
1. The United States: The US tilt towards India is perhaps the most important geopolitical coup since the Cold War. Owing to some strange choices made by both India and the United States, the world's two largest democracies had been somewhat estranged for sixty years. Not any more.
The United States is a powerful partner to have. Having powerful friends can be a challenge. For one, India understands that there is a long way to go before the United States accepts India as an equal partner in the relationship. Now that India has been securely drawn into the US Bloc, one should expect that American diplomats will push for more influence in India's foreign policy and perhaps even internal affairs. The US does this to all friendly nations: the UK, Canada, Germany, Australia and comes down even more heavily on allies such as Vietnam, Romania, Hungary, Poland and Georgia. Given America's continued leadership in the world since the 1950's, it is easy to understand the temptation, even the habit.
This is where diplomacy comes in. India is not the typical US ally; neither is India a small nation torn apart by the Cold War, nor an European country that was helped back to its feet by America after World War II. India is too proud to accept a relationship that is not based on mutual respect. In this respect, the lurking suspicion against America, in most middle class ranks and in political circles of both the Congress and the BJP serves us well. If India cannot eek out an honourable arrangement with America, no one will.
For this, it is important for India to stress the fact that our relationship with Russia is very important to us. Americans need to be reminded, in countless ways that a credible counterbalance to China is almost an existential necessity for them. At this time, when Russia seems to be grunting at the Western World, an indifferent India would make the East look very grim indeed for the United States.
At the same time, India probably realizes that a strategic Indo-US partnership is China's worst nightmare. Even as China presses its own people to the brink in the scramble for "world domination", an Indo-US combine, with most of the Western World taking the side of democracy, is probably too much for them.
The wonderful thing is that India has hardly put a foot wrong in its relationship with the United States so far. It's military ties with the United States have been widely advertised and it has had the right effect in Beijing. As China begins to realize that making cheap toys, toothpaste, matches, soaps and slippers for "lazy" Americans has actually made them very dependent on the US, it has adopted a wait and watch policy towards the emerging Indo-US relationship. It has made desperate attempts to reinstate the India-Pakistan hyphenation, tried some characteristically sinister ploys at NSG, but most of these efforts have come a cropper.
2) The US allies: The main dividend in pursuing a friendly relationship with the United States is the "access" to US allies. America's allies are also among our most natural allies and being in America's good books raises our profile among them. Although much of the world appreciates the rise of China and India, many nations such as Germany, England, Canada, Australia and Japan have waited to pick up the cue from America.
This is all the more reason to make sure that India is able to define its relationship with the United States in honourable terms. Since many of the nations mentioned above, though economically and sometimes even militarily potent on their own; have, by and large, taken America's primacy for granted. As such, if India manages to pursue a "new kind of" relationship with the United States, it generates genuine respect for India as a world power.
This is especially crucial, since many of these nations could be key allies. England and Germany are both key industrialized economies; from which India can learn and gain a lot. Trade and cultural ties with England being what they are, along with a shared concern over terrorism, the economic opportunities in this sphere are virtually limitless. As India looks for foreign partners to increase its share in international trade, India looks towards the European Union and North America for havens of liberal democracy very similar to our own.
The US allies can also offer India major military advantages. Indian presence in Japan, the Korean peninsula, Taiwan and Vietnam will enable India to virtually place a stranglehold on the Chinese coast. This would be a fitting reply to the ring of Chinese bases around India, in Bangladesh, Burma, Indonesia and Pakistan; a sure way to snap the infamous "string of pearls". India has already flourished in the new Afghanistan and built a military base in Tajikistan, overlooking the bridge from Pakistan to China. Shinzo Abe once said that the Indo-Japanese relationship is the most important bilateral relationship in the world. In many ways, he was right.
3. France : France has seized the opportunity to start trade nuclear material with India. When President Sarkozy arrived in India earlier this year, the diplomats had started working on the modalities for Indo-French cooperation in the nuclear sector. France, apart from being a very important member of the European Union, also has a significant military industry and most importantly; France is a NATO member state that is never shy of standing up to what it perceives as US hegemony. One might recall the funny incident when US Congressmen, miffed at France's rabid criticism of the war in Iraq, even suggested that the cafeteria on the Capitol rename French fries as "Freedom fries".
It therefore follows that a military and economic alliance with the French could serve as a nucleus for a grouping of democratic forces, which though fundamentally friendly to the US, would stand for ensuring that America does not drive the free world by its whims.
Although India has always enjoyed good relationships with England and Germany, the relations with the European Parliament have been rather strained. This is mostly due to the "holier than thou" approach of EU member states towards freedom of religion and human rights in India. Unfortunately, most EU member states are highly developed, sparsely populated nations that can never fully appreciate the sheer will it takes to drive an 1100 million-man machine like India.
A disconnect has arisen within the EU itself, where we have states such as France, England and Germany on the one hand who have big stakes in the world economy and countries like Auistria or Holland on the other which are all too smug about their civil rights rhetoric. Austria and Holland have given up all aspirations and just want to be left in peace. And if they continue to bring in more Muslims, they will die a slow painful death. This disconnect was on display at the NSG meet, where the bigger nations threw their weight behind India but the diminuitive players on the world stage agonized over technicalities of non proliferation. By opening up to France, in addition to England and Germany, India can send a message to smaller EU states that they must give up their prudish attitude and cooperate.
4. Israel : Although India did not even have relations with Israel before 1992, the growth of India-Israel relations has been truly remarkable. The relationship has rapidly spread to industry and the military.
At a time when terrorists in India are so energized, it is extremely important for Indian intelligence agencies to train with the famed Mossad, which virtually enjoys cult status. Israel has been looking to become India's No.1 supplier of weapons for some time now. Although it is quite demeaning that India should still have to shop around for its weapons, we have to wait until our very own DRDO has reaped its deadly harvest. Fortunately, with the DRDO testing missile after missile, that day no loonger seems so far away.
Of course, nothing can be achieved unless India formulates a clear Middle East policy. Continued sympathy for Palestine will never buy India any favour with the terrorists. We might as well join the other side and try to win this.
India's relationship with Israel also enjoys the generous blessing of the United States and acts as a thorn in the side of the Islamic world. There is some perverse pleasure in watching the terrorists shake their fist at the emerging India-Israel-US axis. Hail civilization. Hail democracy.
5. And finally, Africa: This might sound somewhat out of place, but it isn't. The poorest continent may not be a major military or geopolitical ally, but it certainly is brimming with mineral resources. Given India's non imperialist image in the world, the time is certainly right to get the resource rich African nations on our side. In this quest, India has a "psychological advantage" over the other predominantly white nations. The challenge is to pull this off before the Chinese do. The Chinese have already rallied with the genocidal regime in Sudan. Although one wishes that India might never have to do something so despicable as that, there is an urgency to act with a certain measure of guile. Given the number of despotic regimes in Africa, the Chinese are certain to find fraternal bonds with many African nations, just as they did with the dictators in South Asia. India can ill afford to ignore this.
Our nation has a bright future. The battle in the mind has been won. But the success story has not been scripted yet.
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