Assembly Polls-II: Congress couldn't care less about losing 2 states

That the Congress read the results of the latest round of Assembly polls as a victory for itself shows how little the grand old party expects of itself. The Congress retained Delhi, while in Rajasthan, Gehlot's forces, soundly thrashed 123-51 five years ago, barely limped to within a small distance of the finish line. The BJP, on the other hand, registered convincing victories in two other states.

Although the Congress is probably sleeping more soundly than the BJP, alarm bells are sounding for the former across the country. The Congress has been shrinking in the South and the East and the West. One of the strengths of the Congress thus far was its ability to routinely unseat the BJP wherever it was incumbent (except for Gujarat, of course). With this election, all that has changed. The BJP is becoming the "natural party of governance" in Central and North Western India, building a solid bulwark from Orissa to Gujarat. The Congress is facing wholesale disaster in Maharashtra and has managed a half hearted mandate in Rajasthan. The BJP is also set to take advantage of the political mess in Jharkhand and Nitish Kumar seems to be holding in Bihar. As part of the long term picture, the Congress party is getting boxed into a strip of land around Delhi (Delhi-Punjab-Haryana), much like the Mughals in their last years.

The convincing nature of the BJP's victory in Madhya Pradesh has taken everyone by surprise and brought much fanfare to the humble Shivraj Singh Chouhan, one of the less fancied politicians in the country. The Chief Minister deserves much praise for singlehandedly bringing the party out of doldrums in the state. Less than a year ago, when the BJP suffered humiliating defeats in Khargonne and Sanwer Lok Sabha constituences, most pundits had written the BJP off. The Congress sensed the surge and called on its cadres to do an encore at a massive workers rally in Chhindwara. Then something changed: the people's Chief Minister decided to get involved. He stemmed the rot by camping for a month in Betul for the Assembly bypoll and gave the BJP some breathing space ahead of the election. Then, two months before the election, Chouhan began his "Aashirwaad Yatra". Although the Chief Minister's soujourn was captured by few television cameras, reports of rural mobilisation in response to Chouhan's reassuring message of continued, diligent development continued to surface throughout. Chouhan's tour transformed the electoral landscape completely; forcing comparisons of the former's developmental image with Digvijay's dysfunctional regime. Once the mood in MP had become more conducive to the BJP, changing party candidates projected the cathartic approach of the party and negated local anti-incumbency.

Chhattisgarh followed much the same script; a "humble" Chief Minister with halting English who was fluent in the language of the masses, the message of continued development, new faces in the list of candidates and a sweet victory for the BJP. The election also showed the BJP's lock on the tribal vote and a much mellowed Ajit Jogi freely conceded that the Congress inability to appeal to the tribals had cost them the election. The BJP swept Bastar and almost all of South Chhattisgarh, affirming that tribals across the country, once a Congress core constituency, had switched over to the BJP nationwide. The stability of the tribal votebank makes them a precious asset to the BJP, be they the tribals of Gondwana, Jhabua, Dang, Amravati, Surguja, Ganjam, Mewar or the Scheduled Tribes down south in Karnataka.

The BJP's victory in Chhattisgarh is also a firm, democratic affirmation for the pro-national Salwa Judum. Although it is a pity that Congress leader Mahendra Karma who mooted the idea of the Salwa Judum ended up losing his seat, the nationalist stance of the voters has silenced many critics. The verdict is a fitting retort to the storm of misinformation created by zealous Indian liberals who have made a career in the West out of misrepresenting the unusually tolerant Hindus as the most bigoted people in the world. Documentary after documentary showed smug "human rights" workers hurling invective and prevarication at hysterical, sloganeering Salwa Judum rallies, but conveniently forgot to translate the slogan of "Bharat Mata ki jai" that was actually being raised at those events for the benefit of Western audiences. Of course, no one suspects that the people's verdict will cause Arundhati Roy and her ken to drop their anti-national stance, but one can hope she will be taken a little less seriously.

On the whole, the BJP seems to have done reasonably well in protecting two incumbent governments and seems to have discovered a workable formula for retaining power. Since most the lethargy, bureaucracy and corruption exists at the local level, MLAs tend to accumulate a fair bit of incumbency baggage. If the party can provide a leader at the helm who can be seen as a serious proponent of development, incumbency need not necessarily disable a party in the election. The other achievement for the BJP is the creation of solid regional leaders with a following all their own. The party has perfected the art of transforming lightweights into public icons: Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Raman Singh, Vasundhara Raje and B S Yediyurappa. Even the formidable Narendrabhai Modi used to hang around in the back alleys of the BJP's office at Ashok Road in New Delhi before he was catapulted into the Big League. The Congress structure of starving upcoming leaders of opportunity in order that all glory may lie with the divine family is the real reason why the party does not name its Chief Ministerial candidate ahead of an election. In this respect Sheila Dikshit has set a new standard of courage by not thanking Sonia Gandhi even once after the results in Delhi. We'll drink to kind, old, endearing Sheila ji ! And please, please change the age old Punjab alcoholic beverages act to bring the drinking age in New Delhi down to 18 from 25, if you can!