Assembly Polls -I : Congress celebrates as BJP falls short of its own expectations

The Congress and the BJP had approached the latest round of Assembly elections very differently. On the one hand, the Congress was ready to take whatever it could get, even though the party was supposed to be on the offensive in 3 states. On the other, the BJP set itself up for disappointment, happily anticipating a 4-0 result, even though it walked in with 3 incumbent governments. The race ended in a dull draw; the BJP forgot to celebrate its spectacular victory in 2 states, while the Congress workers could not care less that their party was steamrolled a second time running in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.

Delhi has the state that soured it most of all for the BJP. The BJP had been on a high in the state, sweeping the Municipal polls a year ago; even in August, BJP insiders had been assured that the party had a 5% lead over the Congress. All they had to do was grab the cake and eat it. For the BJP, this was a case of a slip 'twixt the cup and the lip. They named the wrong leader, paid heed to the wrong people while distributing tickets and even drummed up the wrong issues. It is fitting that disappointed BJP workers shouted slogans against Chief Ministerial candidate V K Malhotra when results were declared on Dec 8. V K Malhotra never quite had the charm of the suave Sheila Dikshit. Sheila Dikshit, despite her advanced years, speaks to those that talk about the future of Delhi, while Malhotra is a left over from the Punjabi politics of old.

Again, it wasn't entirely Malhotra's fault. He did what he knew best and that was the politics of old. The party was wrong in picking him in the first place. This shows the lethargy of the BJP command in New Delhi. In 2003, the BJP brought Madan Lal Khurana back from the wilderness and asked him to take over the reigns. The party suffered. The BJP tried the same botched policy yet again in 2008. A hardworking man with a clean image such as Dr. Harshvardhan should have been put up against Sheila Dikshit. Dr. Harshvardhan singlehandedly worked to bring the party a spectacular victory in the MCD elections early last year. If the BJP stops rewarding honest political achievement like it once did, it will have to face many more setbacks. Also the BJP's Delhi bigwigs did not want to step up to the plate; Arun Jaitley wanted to be a "national leader" and Sushma Swaraj would rather be the chief of the party's campaign committee than hit the streets of Delhi.

That apart, the issues that the BJP raised did not resonate well with the people. Delhi is distinct from all other Indian states, a "made in media" state as Rajdeep Sardesai cleverly called it. Naturally, this means that the Delhi voter is more informed and sophisticated than any other kind of voter in the country. This includes, among other things, the ability to discern state issues and national issues and global trends from the failures of the state government. Sheila Dikshit realized that her party was sinking and on the campaign trail she challenged her detractors to find fault with her administration for the issues facing Delhi. The approach worked, principally because Dikshit's work and initiatives have been fundamentally good for the city. The people of Delhi knew better than to accuse her for the terror attacks in Delhi and elsewhere, even in the face of extreme provocation in Mumbai. Some "issues" that the BJP raised, such as suggesting that Sheila wanted to build a death trap for citizens by creating the Bus Rapid Transit corridor, actually insulted the intelligence of the voter.

Dikshit has proved a winner in every way possible. One might remember that she kept away from the campaigning for the MCD polls last year; a clever ploy that allowed her detractors in the Congress to squabble in full public view and commit political suicide. She never had to take the blame for the Congress defeat in the MCD and she even went so far as to publicly congratulate the BJP on its resurrection. In Dec 2003, she had to suffer a humiliating 10 day wait after winning the election as party insiders tried to ambush her behind closed doors; she made sure that would not happen again.



Vasundhara Raje has every reason to feel sorry for herself, since she has been the only incumbent Chief Minister who has had to put in her papers after these elections. Apparently the last minute visit to the deity in Banswara has had not had an effect. Even before the results came out, the BJP had been nervous about Rajasthan. The party had won the state by a mere 2.5% margin in 2003, a margin that many would argue, would be impossible for an incumbent government to defend. Add to that a horrible caste war and a 78-95 loss does not seem so bad for the BJP after all. Rajasthan has a history of rotating governments and a 17 seat gap is one of the thinnest margins ever in the state. Besides, one must note that, technically, the Rajasthan Assembly is hung (a fact that many media outfits seemed to forget as Rajasthan was included as a Congress "victory" without much reflection; although the BJP did not get similar treatment when it was merely 4 seats away from power in Karnataka this year) Compare it to the 120-53 victory that the BJP achieved in 2003 and you see why Vasundhara Raje has no reason to be ashamed of herself.

Sure, the BJP failed itself in ticket distribution. The party held back decisions till the last minute, created lots of confusion and suspense, dropped lots of sitting MLAs, but it didn't quite work in the end. Chief Minister Raje didn't have a free hand in ticket distribution and had to defer to part "elders", who despite having no electoral worth whatsoever, were able to unduly influence the nomination process. The difference could not have been more stark; the exhilerating response to Vasundhara's rally on Nov 6 filled BJP workers' hearts with enthusiasm, while the same people were glum and complaining the day the party nominees were named. The common BJP worker and his Chief Minister have every reason to feel let down by their party. There have never been more favourable circumstances in Rajasthan for a ruling party going into elections and the BJP was unable to make the most of the goodwill for Raje.

The positive for Raje is that she has become a mass leader, a far cry from early 2003, when many suspected her ability to connect with the people. The party's top leadership has taken cognizance of the difficulties she faced and will, in all likelihood, give her a lot more say when the Lok Sabha polls are held next year. Since Lal Krishna Advani, unlike Vajpayee, has only nationwide recognition and instead of nationwide appeal, he will have to rely on state leaders to deliver for him. And Rajasthan is what many would consider "a natural BJP state". After losing badly to the Congress in the Rajasthan polls of 1998, the party rebounded spectacularly in the Lok Sabha polls held less than a year from that date. The Congress has secured a reluctant madate from the people and has already put a foot wrong by installing Gehlot, a man much disliked by the Jats. Hardly anyone in Rajasthan voted to bring back Gehlot's unresponsive administration.

(We deal with Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh in the next part)