India has been attacked and India needs to respond. The Indian government must take action before the whole world loses respect for us. Minister Pranab Mukherjee started proceedings by declaring that "all options are on the table". In this article, we take stock of all the possibilities that lie before the Indian state.First and foremost, we must mention that there are two options that are so dangerous that they are altogether unthinkable. One of them is nuclear war. The other is doing nothing at all.
Fortunately for us, the ruling UPA government is scrambling to keep some of its dignity alive as Lok Sabha elections loom on the horizon. And the BJP is, as always, advocating a tough stance on terror. Finally, it does appear that we can have some consensus on the issue. But, as I wrote in part I below, unless Indian Muslims come out of denial/complain mode and Hindus start putting country above caste, very little can be achieved.
1. External measures/options: (a) Conventional war with Pakistan: Although this might seem like a very satisfying option after all that "they" have done to our beloved cities, it is not very clear what such a conflict would achieve. What would be the war aims of India going into a conflict like this? Would it be similar to America's war aims in Iraq? And most importantly, how would the military ensure that Pakistan's nuclear arsenal is neutralized at the very outset? With a pacifist President in the White House and the US military facing a difficult challenge in Afghanistan, it is almost impossible to see how India could carry world opinion on its side.
(b) A war of "limited aims": The much more viable option is for India to mount missile strikes on specific locations in Pakistan which are marked out as terrorist camps/hideouts. How much this can achieve depends, to a large extent, on the diplomacy that accompanies such a move. Right now, world opinion is on India's side. It is up to Indian diplomats to translate this into some support for real measures.
The biggest imperative is to get the United States on India's side. If India can ensure NATO support for anti-terrorist activities in Pakistan, India will have won most of the battle. The US has actually already come around to the idea that the epicentre of Jihad in Pakistan must be hit in order to make progress in the war on terror. The US military has already made several strikes in Pakistan and has openly declared that it does not consider it necessary to mention its intentions to the Pakistani authorities before striking inside Pakistani territory. The way ahead for India is to draw up a meticulous list of terrorist locations inside Pakistan and occupied Kashmir and furnish the list to the Americans.
Things will not move ahead from that point unless India itself undergoes a revelation. Terrorism is not a local problem limited to Pakistan; it is an all embracing global nightmare come true. This means that India must commit substantial forces to the US effort in Afghanistan and perhaps even to Iraq. Contributing troops to Afghanistan serves a dual purpose; one, it takes Indo-US relations to a whole new level and two; once Indian troops arrive in Afghanistan, America will lose almost all hope of getting any real cooperation from Pakistan in its war against the Taliban. This will drive Washington further to place its bets on India rather than Pakistan.
Unlike what one might imagine at first, targeted missile attacks on specific locations in Pakistan need not lead to war directly. As long as these attacks are carried out with clear intent and prior information in NATO diplomatic circles, Pakistan may not have face to declare war. In fact, such attacks will probably cause public anger in Pakistan to boil over and overthrow the fledgling government of Zardari, causing General Kiyani to take over the country.
The overthrow of Pakistan's "democratic" government is important for India. Zardari's government has legitimacy but no authority. And, contrary to what the West might think, offering moral support to Zardari's government will not make him any stronger inside Pakistan. The real reason Musharraf lost power was not because his authority had been illegitimate in the first place, but because the General came to be seen as a darling of the West and even, to some extent, a favourite of India. Therefore, in the current situation, Zardari's government basically provides covering fire to terrorists who rule the streets of Pakistan. The newly elected President may not be a terrorist, but his protestations about the sovereignty of Pakistan do get in the way of India's war on terror. In truth, Pakistan is a failed state and a problem for the world. A nation without an effective government aka "a failed state" has no legitimate claim to national sovereignty.
As such, the sooner Pakistan finds itself back under military rule, the better. Not only is it better to talk to the real rulers of Pakistan rather than some strawmen with no real authority, but it is also a lot easier to mobilize world opinion against a dictator.
2) Internal measures:
The building of effective public opinion
With 26/11, the debate on terrorism is over. It is time for us to draw conclusions. India has faced terrorism since the early 90's. The attacks have only multiplied in frequency, intensity and audacity. The media and the middle classes must make up their minds now. This will require a sea change in attitude of the people towards the so called debate on terrorism.
First, the liberal media must stop making excuses for Islamic terrorism. This is in sharply contrary to their current stance, in which anything goes, any view is aired, no matter how anti-national or inflammatory. No sooner is India struck by a terrorist attack, the media lunges forward with the standard "excuses": Babri Masjid, Gujarat riots and almost anything that can be used to lash out at the favourite whipping boy: the BJP and Sangh Parivaar. Blaming the BJP and the larger Sangh Parivaar for a conspiracy of global proportions is truly preposterous and belittles the intelligence of the public.
There is a rot that runs through the Indian media. This rot is an elitist craving to be seen as neutral and detached from the situation on the ground, from the emotions of the unwashed masses. This rot is a deep desire to be seen as internationalists even as the nation comes under threat. For the liberal media, this is an itch that needs to be scratched. Their contempt for the Indian nation is apparent at many levels; from their deliberate inability to pronouce Indian names correctly to their lack of desire to speak up as Indians first in any situation. From watching them, you would get the chilling impression that they want to believe in age old Western stereotypes about India.
Strengthening police and paramilitary forces
The Indian police is woefully underequipped understaffed and yes, underpaid. The low profile, the low respect and the low pay of Indian law enforcement agencies accounts for much of the corruption and low morale among the forces. The average Indian policeman is the most unenviable person in the whole world; he has a gruelling daily beat, career growth simply does not exist for him, he does not have good weapons and he has to shoulder the blame for everything.
Take, for instance, the case of inspector Mohan Chand Sharma, who bravely laid down his life in the line of duty while fighting terrorists in Delhi. The media paid him cursory respect and then got down immediately to bad mouthing the Delhi police and calling the Batla house encounter a case of police atrocity. Few saw the irony when the same mediapersons made much of criticizing Narendrabhai Modi for shedding crocodile tears over the death of ATS Chief Hemant Karkare. Presumably, the media had wiped away its own crocodile tears over Inspector Sharma a few days ago.
The solution is widely expand the powers of the police with regard to terrorism. The solution is to provide them with top of the line equipment, both lethal and non lethal weapons and access to world class intelligence. The imperative is to build trust in our police and law enforcement agencies. Certainly, there is perhaps no Indian who has never paid out a petty Rs. 20 bribe to a policeman, but there is also no Indian whose life has not been made safer by the sacrifice of a brave policeman.
Special Protection Groups for each major city
Every Indian state capital (including the states in the perilous North East) and other major cities deemed terror targets need to be protected by their own special forces, which have been specially trained to fight terrorism. This would entail a loss of several civil liberties. But India has a nuclear armed failed state on its western border and a monster waiting on its northern frontiers. Indians must trade away some civil liberties if they are to live through this geopolitical nightmare.
Sealing the Eastern and North Eastern borders
The border with Bangladesh is another of India's major concerns. To make matters worse, the Indian side of Bengal is ruled by parties whose anti-national leanings are all too well known and whose operatives are more than glad to flood India with enemies. Even so, the Border Security Force and the Indian Army which answer to India and not to the CPI(M) should be given the capability to effectively seal the porous frontier. At the same time, Assam faces a major demographic invasion and unless the invasion is stopped and the anti-nationals are repatriated to their undemocratic Islamic homeland, India cannot breathe easy.
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